4 reasons why it is difficult for Mr. Duterte to turn his back on the US

Despite his moves toward China, Philippine President Duterte is unlikely to change the country's close ties with the United States.

Duterte's visit to China brought in contracts worth $17 billion. Photo: AFP.

International commentators were surprised by the rapid policy pivot of Philippine President Duterte, when he announced he would distance himself from the US ally and lean towards China, according to the South China Morning Post. This has warmed relations between Manila and Beijing, which had been frozen since the international arbitration court's ruling in July.

China wants to woo the Philippines to increase its influence in the region, as well as create a counterweight to the US in the Asia-Pacific. Manila's support also helps Beijing improve relations with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). At least four countries in the bloc are involved in territorial disputes with China. The Philippines' rotating chairmanship next year is expected to resolve many issues between the parties involved.

Severing the strategic relationship between the US and the Philippines would seriously affect US power in Asia. It would help China curb US President Barack Obama's Asia pivot strategy.

However, observers are skeptical of the Philippines’ shift. Manila’s move may be an effort to balance the influence between the US and China, as well as secure financial aid from Beijing. During President Duterte’s recent visit to China, the Philippines signed a series of economic agreements worth a total of $17 billion.

Philippine politicians have pointed out reasons why the country cannot turn its back on the US.

The US-Philippine relationship has lasted nearly 70 years, since the two countries signed a mutual defense treaty that allows the US military to use five military bases in the Philippines. President Duterte cannot single-handedly destroy this close alliance.

Despite Beijing’s rapid investment, trade with the United States remains vital to the Philippine economy. The United States is Manila’s third-largest trading partner, behind only China and Japan. About 4 million U.S. citizens are of Filipino descent, and they sent home nearly $6 billion last year alone.

Filipinos are notoriously pro-American. Most politicians tend to lean toward Washington. A recent survey found that 76% of Filipinos have a high level of trust in the United States, compared to just 22% for China. Destroying US-Philippine relations will only alienate the people and the military from President Duterte.

Finally, Filipinos are very patriotic. Even if Mr Duterte leans toward Beijing, the Philippines is unlikely to abandon its sovereignty disputes with China.

"The impact of the July 12 ruling from the Hague-based arbitral tribunal will be felt for years to come. And the ruling, which the court has declared final and binding, will no doubt be a stumbling block to Philippine-China relations," said Cary Huang of the South China Morning Post.

According to VNE