Launchpill:Sir, Nghe An is experiencing severe hot days, severely affecting production and people's lives. In addition to higher temperatures than other localities, Nghe An is also affected by the wind effect.pmore (Lao wind), so the severity is also higher, can you analyze this issue more thoroughly?
Dr. Nguyen Ngoc Huy:There are unfavorable conditions that cause Nghe An in particular and the North Central provinces in general to be affected by heat waves lasting from May to July 2023.
Firstly, the appearance of El-Nino has caused the global temperature this year to increase dramatically compared to previous years and the continuous activity of the hot low pressure in the West of Vietnam; secondly, the activity of the Southwest monsoon blowing from the Bay of Bengal through Laos before entering Vietnam. The western region of the North Central Coast has the Truong Son mountain range with an altitude of 2,000 - 2,800m, which is a "wall" to block moisture, so the wind after passing the Truong Son mountain range is a hot, dry wind. People often call it the Lao wind because they see the wind blowing from Laos, but in essence this is the Foehn wind phenomenon.
Launchpill: According to his Facebook page, since the end of 2022, he has made many predictions and warnings about severe drought in early 2023 after the La–Nina switches to ENSOand then move on to El-Nino? What do you base this prediction on?
Dr. Nguyen Ngoc Huy:Based on a series of observed sea surface temperature data in the western equatorial Pacific Ocean. When the average sea surface temperature in this area tends to be 0.5 degrees Celsius or more higher for 3 consecutive months compared to the average of many years, the El-Nino phenomenon will appear.
El-Nino activity often brings hot, dry weather and drought in Vietnam. In early 2023, La-Nina ends and moves into a short ENSO (neutral) phase that only lasts from March to May. Since June this year, El-Nino has appeared and led to hot weather and drought.
Launchpill:With nearly 20 years of experience in researching droughts, floods, extreme weather events, climate change and livelihoods; having worked as a consultant for United Nations organizations, international organizations in different countries on environmental issues, climate change adaptation and risk reduction, natural disasters, what recommendations do you have for Nghe An people when from now until the end of the year, after the drought, there will be a "peak of storms and rains"?
Dr. Nguyen Ngoc Huy:El Nino will cause more droughts and average temperatures will be 0.75 to 1.5 degrees Celsius higher than the average of many years. Fall and winter will also come late and end early this year. So we will have a winter that is not too cold (if not a warm winter).
El Nino combined with climate change makes the weather no longer follow the rules, so people still need to be vigilant for possible extreme rains. According to the data I have, in the second half of July, the weather in Nghe An will be less hot. In August and September, there will be a lot of rain in Nghe An.
Most economic sectors and people's livelihoods are related to water demand and are affected by temperature, so people need to monitor long-range forecasts and updated forecasts to apply appropriately to production and business activities. We need to save clean water, prevent water pollution, and at the same time, manage reservoirs appropriately when floods occur.
Launchpill:Currently, he is considered a “phenomenon” in the field of weather forecasting, and is followed and cared for by people all over the country because of his high accuracy and reliability. So have his forecasts ever gone “off track”, had many errors, and natural disasters occurred beyond forecast?
Dr. Nguyen Ngoc Huy:I have made mistakes too! But fortunately not by much. The most recent mistake was over-predicting Typhoon Noru coming to Vietnam in September 2022. I had predicted that Noru would be the strongest storm ever to hit Vietnam because when it was in the middle of the East Sea, only about 500 km from the coast of Quang Nam and Da Nang, it had super typhoon strength with wind gusts of more than 250 km/h. With such a close distance, if we did not predict a super typhoon coming ashore, the risk would be too high for people living along the coast.
Fortunately, when the storm approached about 100 km from the shore, it weakened and caused no human casualties. At the same time, most international and Vietnamese stations predicted that it was a very strong storm and Vietnam had prepared the highest response plan for the storm.
Reporter:In addition to accuracy, his predictions are welcomed by people because of the way they arelanguageeasy to understand, easy to remember, easy to grasp and useful recommendations. How can a PhD be “soft”?oh", "popular"oh"scientific information, figures, and dry data that anyone can understand, especially fishermen, farmers, and salt workers?
Dr. Nguyen Ngoc Huy:Previously, the languages I used in scientific research were only fully understood by scientists, and were rarely understood or used by other groups. I have worked in many countries around the world, and mostly worked with people who use disaster warning information to better manage disasters.
My work has shown me that there is quite a gap between scientific language and applied language. Therefore, I put myself in the position of the information user. Information users can be farmers, fishermen, salt farmers or residents of urban areas, so the language needs to be suitable for them.
Regarding the advisory information, I find it is still limited and not detailed enough for most areas. I can only make recommendations when I have a good understanding of the terrain in places where I have experience researching, or based on past data. People may wonder why we need to make recommendations when people know that when there is a storm, they have to reinforce their houses. However, I still make recommendations because from the perspective of natural disaster management, it is mandatory. Doing so is not redundant and will often be useful for many people when they are subjective or do not have a comprehensive assessment of the situation.
Launchpill:With a huge following on Facebook (nearly half a million people)), regularly wait for weather updates and rely on those forecasts from the Doctor to plan work accordingly. LeffectthisHavemaking his forecast suffer muchpressurethanNo?
Dr. Nguyen Ngoc Huy:In recent years, I have spent a lot of time on forecasting, while still working professionally for my organization. This has affected the time and quality of my work at the agency, so I have decided to quit my full-time job from 2022 to become a part-time specialist. This will give me more time to analyze long-term forecasts and research response models.
Having a lot of followers on Facebook is also stressful. A wrong news report will affect many people, so it is very worrying. However, everyone should only consider the forecast information from my Facebook as a reference source. Forecast information from the National Radio is still the official source for planning, directing and responding to natural disasters.
Reporter:Thank you very much, Doctor, for this interview! I wish you good health and useful information and forecasts to help Vietnam minimize the damage caused by extreme weather!
