The Russia-Ukraine military conflict, an event that has shaken the world in the past year, has had a significant impact on the security structure of the European region, even the world political situation. All diplomatic efforts and dialogue negotiations are considered the most optimal solution at present to end the war, cool down and find a way out of the crisis. However, all diplomatic doors are gradually closing. One conflict gives rise to many other wars. A conflict will have no winner, and it will be difficult to find peace.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict did not happen out of nowhere, but the deep contradictions and disagreements between the two countries began after the end of the Cold War. That disagreement was further deepened when, in 2014, Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula, followed by some instability in the Donbass region - the East of Ukraine, where there are two self-proclaimed republics: Donetsk (DPR) and Lugansk (LPR).
The situation became particularly tense in December 2021, when Russia sent the US and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) an eight-point security proposal, which outlined security concerns, considered Moscow's "red lines". These were:
– Ukraine cannot become a member of NATO.
– NATO does not continue to expand to the East.
– NATO returns to its starting point in 1997, that is, before expanding to the East, admitting Eastern European countries, and the three Baltic Republics as new members – a move that Russia considers a serious threat to Russia's security and strategic interests.
After about 1.5 months, in response to Russia, the US and NATO made proposals that were not met satisfactorily. According to the US and NATO, all sovereign states such as Ukraine, if they have security requirements, can apply to join not only NATO, but any organization. The response also emphasized that Russia's request for NATO to return to the starting point in 1997 is unreasonable. This made Russia think that the US and NATO did not take its legitimate proposals seriously.
At the end of November 2021, Russia began deploying large military forces to the border area with Ukraine, making the situation hotter than ever. On February 22, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the decision to recognize the independence of the two countries DPR and LPR, and at the same time sent troops there to carry out "peacekeeping missions".
And on February 24, 2022, Russian President Putin announced the launch of a "special military operation" in eastern Ukraine, in response to the request for security assistance from the leaders of the two countries DPR and LPR.
It can be seen that the direct cause of the current conflict is that the West and Ukraine do not listen to and respond to Russia's "red lines" on national security, especially the two sides' very different positions on the Ukraine issue.
Russia's calculations and goals through the military campaign in Ukraine can be explained as follows: President Putin always affirms to the entire Russian people and the world that Ukraine is not only a neighboring country, but also an inseparable part of Russia's history, culture and spiritual space. From a historical perspective, the current countries of Russia, Belarus and Ukraine all originated from the ancient State of Kievan Rus. This was once a rich, prosperous, powerful, and illustrious grand duchy throughout a long period of world history, existing for about 500 years, from the 9th to the 13th century. The political and economic center of this state was located in the Holy Land - Kiev, the capital of Ukraine.
From a political, security, and military perspective, Russian President Putin said that since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Western bloc led by the US has always treated Russia unfairly in all forms, from having an "anti-Russian" ideology, not placing Russia in an important position in the European security structure, to NATO expansion that threatens Russia's development space and security, and economic embargo on Russia... It is worth mentioning that it is trying to erase Europe's awareness of the Soviet Union's contributions to liberating peoples from fascism in World War II.
This special military campaign could cause President Putin's reputation to decline in the international arena, and Russia is currently facing an unprecedented storm of sanctions, with no signs of stopping from the Western community. However, it seems that Russia has prepared mentally and planned for response options. Up to now, President Putin and his associates have often affirmed that Russia will carry out the campaign's goals to the end.
The broader goal of the conflict is to bring Ukraine back into the sphere of influence to counterbalance NATO, reestablish a security buffer between Russia and the West, as the Soviet Union once did – redraw the European security map, and put Russia back on the chessboard of the superpowers. At the same time, Moscow wants to readjust the security consequences of the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 – an event President Putin has described as “the greatest geopolitical tragedy of the 20th century”.
The US and the West have always viewed Russia as the number one security threat, and have always wanted to extinguish Russia's hopes of restoring its status as a great power. Overall, the US has a constant strategic goal of maintaining its global leadership role, and a unipolar world order that benefits the US, containing and preventing Russia from rising to challenge that position, especially when Russia is trying to create and arrange the global political map into a multipolar world.
The energy war is one of the most fierce and controversial wars. It not only caused the relationship between Russia and the West to "fall to rock bottom", but it also caused the member states of the European Union (EU) to be in turmoil and have fierce internal conflicts. Russia is too powerful, as an important global energy supplier, to be ignored. That is also one of the reasons why Western sanctions are almost unable to "knock out" the Russian economy.
Although the EU and the Group of Seven (G7) are trying to prevent Russia from making huge profits from selling gas and oil, Moscow has responded with corresponding measures, from selling gas and oil in rubles, and only to friendly countries, to indefinitely shutting off the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline - the main artery supplying gas to almost all of Europe, while the Nord Stream 2 project is not licensed to operate, despite being completed. Russia's move is seen as an economic counterattack on the EU.
The world energy map has also been redrawn. The market trend has shifted from West to East. If Europe was previously Russia's top customer, now, with efforts to reduce dependence on supplies from this country, Asia has become Moscow's biggest partner.
Before the Russia-Ukraine conflict, in 2021, the EU imported 155 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia, including 140 billion cubic meters of gas by pipeline, and about 15 billion cubic meters of gas in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG), equivalent to about 45% of total imports and nearly 40% of gas consumption of member states that year.
This is considered a failure of Gazprom. Such a failure cannot but affect the production volume. It is known that last year, the corporation decreased by 20% to only 412.6 billion cubic meters of gas. On the other hand, according to data published by the Economist, Russia achieved a record current account surplus of 220 billion USD, double that of a year earlier. This miracle occurred in the context of many serious fluctuations in the cost of energy resources, as well as increased demand. And it has actually leveled all the sanctions efforts of the Western collective.
US LNG suppliers have suddenly entered Russia’s niche market. If the current trend continues, the share of Russian gas on European exchanges could fall by another quarter in 2023. That means the US share will be twice that of Russia. This is not necessarily a disaster for Russia. It is simply that Russia is losing its historic sales market, a stable channel for pumping foreign exchange and an important geopolitical trump card. Accordingly, the Americans get all this instead of Russia, which means Washington’s operation to distribute and reshape the world energy market. There is no doubt that the US influence is currently quite successful. Huge US investments and the global energy crisis have helped the country sell a large amount of LNG in 2022, making it the world’s largest LNG exporter.
Carefully built over decades to become Russia’s closest supplier and market, the gas trade between Russia and Europe has now completely broken down, and is unlikely to recover, even if the military conflict ends. Having lost the European market, Russia has shifted from West to East. Asia has overtaken Europe as the largest buyer of Russian oil for the first time since April 2022. The major importers are China and India. The two major Asian economies have pumped millions of barrels of oil from Russia to take advantage of the huge concessions on the flow of this commodity. Besides the lure of cheaper Russian oil, both Beijing and New Delhi have close ties with Moscow.
Russia has already signed two agreements with China on natural gas supplies. The first is being implemented through the Power of Siberia pipeline project, which has a capacity of 38 billion cubic meters of gas. According to Russia, the gas pipeline will reach its maximum capacity around 2025.
Some observers are concerned that Russia’s gas trade with China, the world’s largest energy consumer, can be as lucrative as decades of gas supplies to Europe remains to be seen. Negotiations with China on new gas sales are expected to be complicated, especially since China is not expected to need more gas until after 2030. In 2023, Russia should expect the most substantive negotiations on the 50 billion cubic meter Power of Siberia-2 project, and the resumption of the project to pump gas through Mongolia. At the end of 2021, the Mongolian agency Montsame reported that the feasibility study for the Soyuz Vostok gas pipeline project was 70 percent complete.
Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree banning oil exports to countries that impose price caps on Russian oil. The decree takes effect on February 1, 2023, and will be in effect until July 1, 2023. The decree also includes a provision allowing President Putin to waive the ban in exceptional cases. The US Treasury Department also issued a statement saying that Russian crude oil processed abroad is not subject to sanctions and will not be subject to the so-called price cap.
All the big games are underway. Most of the events are taking place not on the front stage, but behind the scenes of world politics. In this case, the results will become clear after a few years. And these results will determine the new face of the world. It will be decided by the world superpowers: Russia, the United States and China. And it seems that Europe has been pushed out of this energy “train”.
The tug-of-war has sent global energy prices soaring, fueling inflation… The war has escalated significantly recently, as Western countries have joined forces to limit the prices of Russian oil and gas exports. The G7 has called for a system that would only allow Russian oil to be sold at below-market prices. The aim is to limit Russia’s income from fossil fuel sales, which has been funding its military campaign in Ukraine.
The conflict in Ukraine has left Russia facing the West, with an unprecedented storm of sanctions and export restrictions aimed at isolating the country from the global economy and cutting off Moscow’s revenue for the war. The question remains whether the West’s harsh sanctions are really effective, as after a year, Russia has shown no signs of backing down and is determined to achieve its goals. In addition, is Russia really completely isolated from the rest of the world, when besides Moscow, there are also effective “lifesavers”.
Russian President Vladimir Putin in mid-January presented a bright picture of the country's economy based on new government data. According to it, the real dynamics of the economy turned out to be much better than experts had predicted. Citing data from the Ministry of Economic Development, President Putin said that Russia's GDP had fallen from January to November 2022, but the decline was only about 2.1%, while some Russian and foreign experts had predicted a decline of 10-20%.
According to President Putin, initial calculations show that the Russian economy has shrunk by 2.5% for the whole of 2022, significantly better than Ukraine's 33% decline.
Russia’s trade has also gradually returned to levels seen before the conflict with Ukraine began. Part of the reason is that many countries are reluctant to abandon their ties with Russia. Recent research shows that less than 9% of EU and G7 companies have cut one of their Russian subsidiaries. Shipping companies have also recorded an increase in shipping activity, which can help Russia export energy and avoid Western restrictions.
The International Monetary Fund said on January 30, 2023, that it expects the Russian economy to grow by 0.3% this year, a significant reversal from its previous forecast of a 2.3% contraction. The IMF also said that it expects Russian crude oil exports to remain relatively strong, even with the price cap, and that Russian trade will continue to shift to friendly countries.
For many foreigners in Russia, these figures are truly surprising. The scale of the collective Western sanctions against Russia since February 24, 2022 is huge, unprecedented for any country. But the data published by Russia shows that the effectiveness of the sanctions is lower than expected.
While Russia's data may have some flaws, many foreigners living in Russia or visiting recently say life in the country continues at a normal pace, even without McDonald's and Western brands being replaced by domestic ones.
Western economic observers also admit that the Russian economy is experiencing disruption, but it is less severe than what happened at the beginning of the pandemic. There are no shortages, supermarket shelves are always full.
So what lever has the Russian economy relied on to survive all the adversities and even grow? It is the surge in trade turnover with Russia's neighbors and partners. What kind of countries are they?
Topping this list is none other than China. This position of China is explained both politically and economically. Remember, in 2022, in official and unofficial meetings, online and in person, senior leaders of Russia and China often emphasized the "unlimited friendship" and "strategic partnership" of both sides.
Trade between Russia and China boomed in 2022, becoming the lifeblood of the Russian economy and showing the limits of Western sanctions, according to a new report. Russia has increased imports of technologies critical to the conflict in Ukraine, including semiconductors and microchips, from China, according to the report by the Washington-based Free Russia Foundation.
China’s increased imports of Russian goods, especially energy goods, have more than compensated for the decline in Russian supplies to the European market. This means that, as the US, EU, and UK all reduce trade with Russia, China has emerged as Russia’s most important trading partner. Highlights in 2022 include the strong development of the $55 billion Power of Siberia gas pipeline between Russia and China, and Moscow’s increased use of the yuan.
Not only is China a partner in the fields of energy and civil goods, it has also become a supplier of some key technologies that can serve military purposes for Russia. According to data, Beijing sold UAVs to Moscow, with a total value of 3.3 million USD in 2022. Along with China, UAVs continued to be transferred to Russia from countries and territories such as: United Arab Emirates, Hong Kong, and Singapore, in November and December 2022.
Russia has been hit by successive waves of Western sanctions, making it difficult for it to source semiconductors and microchips. China has once again emerged as the main supplier, helping Russia increase its total chip imports to $2.45 billion in 2022, up from $1.82 billion in 2021.
China's overall exports to Russia hit a record high in December 2022, helping to offset gaps in Russia-Europe trade.
Next on the list of Russia’s trading partners is Türkiye, which has increased its imports of Russian crude oil and is partnering with Moscow to build a natural gas hub and nuclear power plant, a move that comes amid Western efforts to limit Russia’s revenue from energy exports.
In other words, energy is at the heart of the growing relationship between Russia and Türkiye, as cheap oil and gas from Moscow helps Ankara to limit pressure on its economy. In 2022, Turkey's imports of Russian crude oil doubled after the conflict in Ukraine broke out. Ankara imported nearly 2.5 million barrels of oil from March 2022, compared to 1.3 million barrels in all of 2021. Russian crude oil accounted for about 40% of Turkey's seaborne crude oil imports in 2022, up from 21% in 2021.
Türkiye has also increased its supply of goods to Russia so that Moscow does not need to import them from Europe. These goods are very diverse, from textiles, fruits, vegetables to industrial products. According to data from the Institute of International Finance, Turkish exports to Russia increased by $2.3 billion from May to October 2022, compared to the same period in 2021.
Some of the increase in Turkish exports to Russia is due to changes in trade routes between the EU and Russia. Hundreds of Russian companies have moved to Türkiye, or set up headquarters there, to avoid restrictions from the EU or other countries.
Türkiye is not part of any Russian energy embargo, so it can buy Russian oil at deeply discounted prices. The benefits are even twofold. Turkey, a country with large refining capacity, buys record amounts of Russian crude, refines it on its own shores, then legally labels the finished products as Turkish in origin and sells them at global market prices. At the same time, Türkiye continues to buy discounted Russian diesel for domestic use.
Türkiye’s imports of discounted Russian coal have also surged. Between August and November 2022, while the EU ban on Russian coal was in effect, Türkiye imported an average of 2.1 million tonnes of coal from Russia per month. Ankara became the largest buyer of Moscow’s coal.
In addition to China and Türkiye, there are new lifelines supporting the Russian economy: Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. These countries are increasingly supplying Russia with many products that the West has blocked from shipping to this country. Remember that before, Western media regularly reported that Russians had difficulty buying goods, or had to buy them at high prices, from milk and household appliances to computer software and medicine. Silverado Policy Accelerator, a nonprofit organization in Washington, analyzed that the value of Russia's imports from the rest of the world exceeded pre-war levels in September 2022.
All of these trends reflect how supply chains are shifting to continue supplying goods to Russia.
When imposing a series of strong sanctions on Russia, the Western collective believed that, with the "slow and steady rain soaking in", the Russian economy would be exhausted and completely isolated. Reality has proven that the Russian economy in 2022 is not as bad as predicted. How will this trend continue in 2023? Fast or slow? Will the trajectory change? How fast this happens will depend on the West's persistence in implementing the sanctions. The answer will be determined by time.
The battlefield is the clearest place to see the effectiveness of weapons. The conflict in Ukraine is no exception. Moreover, this can be considered a premise to determine which types of weapons will be widely used in future battles. Ukraine has repeatedly admitted that the country has become a testing ground for Western manufacturers, and Russia has also sent its neighbor top-notch weapons.
To date, the US has provided Ukraine with $26.7 billion in military aid, including the latest $2.5 billion package on January 19. This package includes 59 Bradley armored vehicles, 90 Stryker armored vehicles, Avenger air defense systems, and large and small arms.
The phrase “weapons exhaustion” has become a thoroughly exploited topic in the media. So is it really a “headache” for Russia or for the US and the West?
Since the conflict broke out, the West has always pledged to “not leave Ukraine alone”, continuously supplying weapons to Ukraine. However, a year has passed since the war, although Ukraine has continuously urged the West to provide the most modern weapons, the West’s hesitation and hesitation has made Kiev impatient. Although Ukraine has tried its best to prove its ability to defeat Russia, including counterattacks and the recapture of some small territories, for Kiev these are also symbolic victories.
As Ukraine’s army has been battered by overwhelming Russian artillery in the east, suffering heavy casualties and being forced to retreat, Western support seems to have lost some of its enthusiasm. This stems from the West’s growing skepticism that Ukraine will find it difficult to win a war of attrition, and that the modern weapons it provides will be difficult for Kiev to turn the tide.
Yet Ukraine has persisted in sending the message to the West that it can win, that its strategy will work, provided the flow of modern weapons to the country is not interrupted. No one can say with absolute certainty that Ukraine can win against the Russian army, which is superior in both firepower and manpower. Ukraine’s requests for weapons have become so frequent that some Western countries have begun to feel annoyed, doubting the reality of Kiev’s claims of “winning against Russia.”
It can be seen that Kiev has continuously sent out optimistic messages, but it seems that the West is still not very interested. Military analysts and Western officials also believe that it is too early to predict the future situation of the Ukrainian battlefield. They also cautiously warn against placing too much hope in any specific weapon in front of a front line stretching hundreds of kilometers, from Kharkov in the North to Mikolaev in the South, with many elements of surprise. Meanwhile, those in the war share that Ukraine's new attacks have achieved what was previously impossible. But there is hardly any breakthrough ahead, no panacea, no magic wand to help Kiev win immediately tomorrow.
Over the past 200 years, wars have lasted an average of just over three months. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has now lasted a year. To negotiate or not to negotiate is a frequently discussed issue. Therefore, countless times, both the parties involved and the uninvolved, have called for or proposed to go to the negotiating table. However, up to now, the door to negotiation has been firmly closed.
The crucial issues of territorial control and security are the biggest challenge to mediate, and it remains possible that both Ukraine and Russia will shy away from such mediation efforts,
If we consider the conflict in Ukraine as a pendulum, it swung most towards Ukraine-US from September to November 2022, after the events in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions. The problem for the West is that with each new week the pendulum swings in Russia’s favor. Firstly, the army is replenished with partial mobilization. Secondly, new capabilities of Russian industry are being put into operation. Thirdly, the plan to destroy Ukraine’s energy infrastructure is being implemented at breakneck speed. Accordingly, the more time passes, the weaker Kiev’s military capabilities and psychological prestige will become.
Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, who once acted as a mediator between Moscow and Kiev, said that the peace dialogue between Moscow and Kiev in the spring of 2022 was interrupted at the initiative of the West. He added that both sides expressed their willingness to make serious concessions, and the chances of successful negotiations were “not bad.” In particular, according to Bennett, Ukraine had abandoned its intention to join NATO at that time.
Analysts say that this confession of the former Israeli prime minister shows the calculations in the policies of the US and the EU. Experts believe that although the West always declares and calls on the parties to achieve peace, it is actually interested in prolonging the conflict as long as possible to weaken Russia.
The US is trying to make the most of the ongoing conflict. In particular, to shift the number of companies and attract investments from Europe to the US by provoking chaos in the old world, as well as aggravating Russia-Europe relations. In other words, the US is making money from the conflict at the expense of Europe and Ukraine. And the Ukraine conflict is a proxy war for the US.
And here the position of the Joe Biden administration coincides with the interests of Ukrainian President Zelensky, who does not need peace agreements. Therefore, President Zelensky, like the US administration, is ready to fight in Ukraine until the country is completely defeated and disintegrated.
In the rich EU member states, the economic and social situation is getting worse. Deindustrialization has begun, and military arsenals are being depleted. They realize that all these problems cannot be solved without normalizing relations with Russia, and there will be no normalization without resolving the conflict in Ukraine.
In fact, Ukraine has been pushed out of the negotiating “equation.” So the question is, what is the best possible negotiating position that the US has always promised to give Ukraine? Obviously, there is none! The US will not create any favorable conditions for Ukraine. It only wants to keep the best conditions for itself. It seems that Washington only wants to maintain a comfortable mentality and gain as much profit as possible from this conflict.