The Russia-Ukraine military conflict, an event that has shocked the world in the past year, has had a significant impact on the security structure of the European region, and even the world political situation. All diplomatic efforts and dialogue negotiations are considered the most optimal solution at present to end the war, cool down and find a way out of the crisis. However, all diplomatic doors are gradually closing. One conflict gives rise to many other wars. A conflict will have no winner, and it will be difficult to find peace.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict did not happen out of nowhere, but deep contradictions and disagreements between the two countries began after the end of the Cold War. That disagreement was further deepened when in 2014 Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula, followed by some instability in the Donbass region - the East of Ukraine, where there are two self-proclaimed republics: Donetsk (DPR) and Lugansk (LPR).
The situation became particularly tense in December 2021, when Russia sent the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) an eight-point security proposal, outlining security concerns, considered Moscow's "red lines". These were:
– Ukraine cannot become a member of NATO.
– NATO does not continue to expand to the East.
– NATO returns to its starting point in 1997, that is, before expanding to the East, admitting Eastern European countries and the three Baltic Republics as new members – a move that Russia considers a serious threat to its security and strategic interests.
After about 1.5 months, in response to Russia, the US and NATO made unsatisfactory proposals. According to the US and NATO, any sovereign state such as Ukraine, if it has security requirements, can apply to join not only NATO, but any organization. The response also emphasized that Russia's request for NATO to return to its starting point in 1997 is unreasonable. This made Russia think that the US and NATO did not take its legitimate proposals seriously.
At the end of November 2021, Russia began deploying large military forces to the border area with Ukraine, making the situation hotter than ever. On February 22, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced his decision to recognize the independence of the two countries DPR and LPR, and at the same time sent troops there to carry out "peacekeeping missions".
And on February 24, 2022, Russian President Putin announced the launch of a "special military operation" in eastern Ukraine, in response to the request for security assistance from the leaders of the two countries, DPR and LPR.
It can be seen that the direct cause of the current conflict is that the West and Ukraine do not listen to and respond to Russia's "red lines" on national security, especially the two sides' very different positions on the Ukraine issue.
Russia's calculations and goals through the military campaign in Ukraine can be explained as follows: President Putin has always affirmed to the entire Russian people and the world that Ukraine is not only a neighboring country, but also an inseparable part of Russia's history, culture and spiritual space. From a historical perspective, the current countries of Russia, Belarus and Ukraine all originated from the ancient state of Kievan Rus. This was once a rich, prosperous, powerful and illustrious grand duchy throughout a long period of world history, existing for about 500 years, from the 9th to the 13th century. The political and economic center of this state was located in the Holy Land - Kiev, the capital of Ukraine.
From a political, security and military perspective, Russian President Putin said that since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Western bloc led by the US has always treated Russia unfairly in all forms, from having an "anti-Russian" ideology, not placing Russia in an important position in the European security structure, to NATO expansion threatening Russia's development space and security, and economic embargo on Russia... It is worth mentioning that it is trying to erase Europe's awareness of the Soviet Union's contributions to liberating peoples from fascism during World War II.
This special military campaign could cause President Putin's reputation to decline in the international arena, and Russia is currently facing an unprecedented storm of sanctions from the West, with no signs of stopping. However, it seems that Russia has prepared mentally and planned for response options. Up to now, President Putin and his associates have often affirmed that Russia will carry out the campaign's goals to the end.
The broader goal of the conflict is to bring Ukraine back into the sphere of influence to counterbalance NATO, reestablish a security buffer between Russia and the West, as the Soviet Union once did – redrawing the European security map and putting Russia back on the chessboard of the great powers. At the same time, Moscow wants to readjust the security consequences of the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 – an event that President Putin has described as “the greatest geopolitical tragedy of the 20th century”.
On the US and the West side, Russia has always been considered the number one security threat, and has always wanted to extinguish Russia's hopes of restoring its great power status. Overall, the US has a constant strategic goal of maintaining its global leadership role, and a unipolar world order that benefits the US, restraining and preventing Russia from rising to challenge that position, especially when Russia is trying to create and arrange the global political map into a multipolar world.
The energy war is one of the most fierce and controversial wars. It has not only caused the relationship between Russia and the West to "fall to rock bottom", but it has also caused internal conflicts and discord among the member states of the European Union (EU). Russia is too powerful, as an important global energy supplier, to be ignored. That is also one of the reasons why Western sanctions have been almost unable to "knock out" the Russian economy.
While the EU and the Group of Seven (G7) are trying to stop Russia from making huge profits from selling gas and oil, Moscow has responded with corresponding measures, from selling gas and oil in rubles, and only to friendly countries, to indefinitely shutting off the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline - the main artery supplying gas to almost all of Europe, while the Nord Stream 2 project is not licensed to operate, despite being completed. Russia's move is seen as an economic counterattack on the EU.
The world energy map has also been redrawn. The market trend is shifting from West to East. If Europe was previously Russia's leading customer, now, with efforts to reduce dependence on supplies from this country, Asia has become Moscow's largest partner.
Before the Russia-Ukraine conflict, in 2021, the EU imported 155 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia, including 140 billion cubic meters via pipeline, and about 15 billion cubic meters in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG), equivalent to about 45% of total imports and nearly 40% of gas consumption by member states that year.
This is considered a failure of Gazprom. Such a failure could not but affect the production volume. It is known that last year, the corporation decreased by 20% to only 412.6 billion cubic meters of gas. On the other hand, according to data published by the Economist, Russia achieved a record current account surplus of $ 220 billion, double that of a year earlier. This feat occurred against the backdrop of serious fluctuations in the cost of energy resources, as well as increased demand. And it has practically leveled all the sanctions efforts of the Western collective.
US LNG suppliers have suddenly entered Russia's niche. If the current trend continues, the share of Russian gas on European exchanges could fall by another quarter in 2023. That would mean that the US share would be twice that of Russia. This is not necessarily a disaster for Russia. It is simply that Russia is losing its historical sales market, a stable channel for pumping foreign exchange, and an important trump card in geopolitics. Accordingly, the Americans get all this instead of Russia, which means Washington's efforts to distribute and reshape the world energy market. There is no doubt that the US influence is currently quite successful. Huge US investments and the global energy crisis have helped the country sell a large amount of LNG in 2022, making it the world's largest LNG exporter.
Carefully built over decades to become Russia’s closest supplier and market, the gas trade between Russia and Europe has now completely broken down, and is unlikely to recover, even if the conflict ends. With the European market gone, Russia has shifted from West to East. Asia has overtaken Europe as the largest buyer of Russian oil for the first time since April 2022. The major importers are China and India. The two major Asian economies have pumped millions of barrels of Russian oil to take advantage of the huge concessions on the flow of this commodity. In addition to the lure of cheaper Russian oil, both Beijing and New Delhi have close ties with Moscow.
Currently, Russia has signed two agreements with China on the supply of natural gas. The first is being implemented through the “Power of Siberia” pipeline project, which has a capacity of 38 billion cubic meters of gas. According to the Russian side, the gas pipeline will reach its maximum capacity around 2025.
Some observers are concerned that Russia’s gas trade with China, the world’s largest energy consumer, can be as lucrative as decades of gas supplies to Europe. Negotiations with China on new gas sales are expected to be complicated, especially since China is not expected to need more gas until after 2030. In 2023, Russia should expect the most substantive negotiations on the 50 billion cubic meter Power of Siberia-2 project, and the resumption of gas pumping through Mongolia. At the end of 2021, the Mongolian agency Montsame reported that the feasibility study for the Soyuz Vostok gas pipeline project was 70 percent complete.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree banning oil exports to countries that impose price caps on Russian oil. The decree will take effect on February 1, 2023, and will be in effect until July 1, 2023. The decree also includes a provision allowing President Putin to waive the ban in exceptional cases. The US Treasury Department also issued a statement saying that Russian crude oil processed abroad is not subject to sanctions and will not be subject to the so-called price cap.
All the big games are going on. Most of the events are taking place not on the front stage, but behind the scenes of world politics. In this case, the results will become clear after a few years. And these results will determine the new face of the world. It will be decided by the world's superpowers: Russia, the United States and China. And it seems that Europe has been pushed out of this energy "train".
The tug-of-war has sent global energy prices soaring, fueling inflation… The war has escalated significantly recently, as Western countries have joined forces to cap Russian oil and gas exports. The G7 has called for a system that would allow Russian oil to be sold only at below-market prices. The aim is to limit Russia’s income from fossil fuel sales, which is funding its military campaign in Ukraine.
The conflict in Ukraine has left Russia facing the West, with an unprecedented storm of sanctions and export restrictions aimed at isolating the country from the global economy and cutting off Moscow’s revenue for the war. The question remains whether the West’s harsh sanctions are actually effective, as after a year, Russia has shown no signs of backing down and is determined to achieve its goals. In addition, is Russia really completely isolated from the rest of the world, when Moscow has other powerful “lifesavers”?
Russian President Vladimir Putin in mid-January presented a bright picture of the country's economy based on new government data. According to it, the real dynamics of the economy turned out to be much better than experts had predicted. Citing data from the Ministry of Economic Development, President Putin said that Russia's GDP had fallen from January to November 2022, but the decline was only about 2.1%, while some Russian and foreign experts had predicted a decline of 10-20%.
According to President Putin, initial calculations show that the Russian economy has shrunk by 2.5% for the whole of 2022, significantly better than Ukraine's 33% decline.
Russia’s trade has also gradually returned to levels before the conflict with Ukraine. Part of the reason is that many countries are reluctant to abandon their ties with Russia. A recent study found that less than 9% of EU and G7 companies have cut one of their subsidiaries in Russia. Shipping companies have also recorded an increase in shipping activity, which can help Russia export energy and avoid Western restrictions.
The International Monetary Fund said on January 30, 2023, that it expects the Russian economy to grow by 0.3% this year, a sharp reversal from its previous forecast of a 2.3% contraction. The IMF also said that it expects Russian crude oil exports to remain relatively strong, even with a price cap and that Russia’s trade will continue to shift to friendly countries.
For many foreigners in Russia, these figures are truly surprising. The scale of the collective Western sanctions against Russia since February 24, 2022 is huge, unprecedented for any country. But the data released by Russia shows that the effectiveness of the sanctions is lower than expected.
While Russia's data may have some flaws, many foreigners living in Russia or visiting recently say life in the country continues at a normal pace, even with McDonald's gone and Western brands replaced by domestic ones.
Western economic observers also admit that the Russian economy is experiencing disruption, but it is less severe than what happened at the beginning of the pandemic. There are no shortages, and supermarket shelves are always full.
So what lever has the Russian economy relied on to survive all the adversities and even grow? It is the surge in trade turnover with Russia's neighbors and partners. What kind of countries are they?
Topping this list is none other than China. This position of China is explained both politically and economically. Remember, in 2022, in official and unofficial, online and in-person meetings, top leaders of Russia and China often emphasized the "unlimited friendship" and "strategic partnership" of both sides.
Trade between Russia and China boomed in 2022, becoming the lifeblood of the Russian economy and showing the limits of Western sanctions, according to a new report. Russia has increased imports of technologies critical to the conflict in Ukraine, including semiconductors and microchips, from China, according to a report by the Washington-based Free Russia Foundation.
China’s increased imports of Russian goods, especially energy goods, have more than compensated for the decline in Russian supplies to the European market. This means that, as the US, EU, and UK all scale back their trade with Russia, China has emerged as Russia’s most important trading partner. Highlights in 2022 include Russia and China’s accelerated development of the $55 billion Power of Siberia gas pipeline, and Moscow’s increased use of the yuan.
In addition to being a partner in the fields of energy and civil goods, China has also become a supplier of some key technologies that can serve military purposes for Russia. According to data, Beijing sold UAVs to Moscow, worth a total of 3.3 million USD in 2022. Along with China, UAVs continued to be transferred to Russia from countries and territories such as the United Arab Emirates, Hong Kong, and Singapore, in November and December 2022.
Russia has struggled to source semiconductors and microchips under successive waves of Western sanctions, and China has once again emerged as a major supplier. This has helped Russia increase its total chip imports to $2.45 billion in 2022, up from $1.82 billion in 2021.
China's overall exports to Russia hit a record high in December 2022, helping to offset gaps in Russia-Europe trade.
Next on the list of Russia’s trading partners is Türkiye, which has increased its imports of Russian crude oil and is partnering with Moscow to build a natural gas hub and nuclear power plant, a move that comes amid Western efforts to limit Russia’s revenue from energy exports.
In other words, energy is at the heart of the growing relationship between Russia and Türkiye, as cheap oil and gas from Moscow help Ankara to ease the pressure on its economy. In 2022, Turkey’s imports of Russian crude oil doubled after the conflict in Ukraine broke out. Ankara imported nearly 2.5 million barrels of oil from March 2022, compared to 1.3 million barrels in all of 2021. Russian crude accounted for about 40% of Turkey’s seaborne crude oil imports in 2022, up from 21% in 2021.
Türkiye has also increased its supply of goods to Russia so that Moscow does not need to import them from Europe. These goods are diverse, ranging from textiles, fruits, vegetables to industrial products. According to data from the Institute of International Finance, Turkish exports to Russia increased by $2.3 billion from May to October 2022, compared to the same period in 2021.
Some of the increase in Turkish exports to Russia is due to changes in trade routes between the EU and Russia. Hundreds of Russian companies have moved to Türkiye, or set up headquarters there, to avoid restrictions from the EU or other countries.
Türkiye is not a party to any Russian energy embargo, so it can buy Russian oil at deeply discounted prices. The benefits are even twofold. Türkiye, a country with large refining capacity, buys record amounts of Russian crude, refines it on its own shores, legally labels the finished products as Turkish in origin, and sells them at global market prices. At the same time, Türkiye continues to buy discounted Russian diesel for domestic use.
Türkiye’s imports of discounted Russian coal have also surged. Between August and November 2022, while the EU ban on Russian coal was in effect, Türkiye imported an average of 2.1 million tonnes of coal from Russia per month. Ankara became the largest buyer of Moscow’s coal.
In addition to China and Türkiye, there are new lifelines supporting the Russian economy: Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. These countries are increasingly supplying Russia with many products that the West has blocked from shipping to this country. Remember, before that, Western media often reported that Russians had difficulty buying goods, or had to buy them at high prices, from milk and household appliances to computer software and medicine. Silverado Policy Accelerator, a Washington-based nonprofit, analyzed that the value of Russia's imports from the rest of the world exceeded pre-war levels in September 2022.
All of these trends reflect how supply chains are shifting to continue supplying goods to Russia.
When imposing a series of strong sanctions on Russia, the Western collective believed that, with the “slow and steady rain soaking in”, the Russian economy would be exhausted and completely isolated. Reality has proven that the Russian economy in 2022 is not as bad as predicted. How will this trend continue in 2023? Fast or slow? Will the trajectory change? How fast this happens will depend on the persistence of the West in implementing the sanctions. The answer will be determined by time.
The battlefield is the clearest place to see the effectiveness of weapons. The conflict in Ukraine is no exception. Moreover, this can be considered a premise to determine which types of weapons will be widely used in future battles. Ukraine has repeatedly admitted that it has become a testing ground for Western manufacturers, and Russia has also sent its neighbor top-notch weapons.
To date, the US has provided Ukraine with $26.7 billion in military aid, including the latest $2.5 billion package on January 19. This package includes 59 Bradley armored vehicles, 90 Stryker armored vehicles, Avenger air defense systems, and large and small arms.
The phrase “weapons exhaustion” has become a thoroughly exploited topic in the media. So is it really a “headache” for Russia or for the US and the West?
Since the conflict broke out, the West has always pledged to “not leave Ukraine alone” and continuously provide weapons to Ukraine. However, a year has passed since the war, although Ukraine has continuously urged the West to provide the most modern weapons, the West’s hesitation and hesitation has made Kiev impatient. Although Ukraine has tried its best to prove its ability to defeat Russia, including counterattacks and the recapture of some small territories, for Kiev these are also symbolic victories.
As the Ukrainian army is overwhelmed by overwhelming Russian artillery in the eastern battlefield, suffering heavy casualties and constantly being forced to retreat, Western support seems to have lost its enthusiasm. This stems from the reason that the West is skeptical that Ukraine will not win a war of attrition, and that the modern weapons they provide will not be able to help Kiev turn the tide.
Yet Ukraine has persisted in sending the message to the West that it can win, that its strategy will work, provided the flow of modern weapons to the country is not interrupted. No one can say with certainty whether Ukraine can win against the Russian army, which is superior in both firepower and manpower. Ukraine’s requests for weapons have become so frequent that some Western countries have begun to feel annoyed and doubt the reality of Kiev’s claims of “winning against Russia.”
It can be seen that Kiev has continuously sent out optimistic messages, but it seems that the West is still not very interested. Western military analysts and officials also believe that it is too early to predict the future situation of the Ukrainian battlefield. They also cautiously warn against placing too much hope in any specific weapon in front of a front line stretching hundreds of kilometers, from Kharkov in the north to Mikolaev in the south, with many unexpected factors. Meanwhile, those in the war share that Ukraine's new attacks have achieved what was previously impossible. But there is hardly any breakthrough ahead, no panacea, no magic wand that will help Kiev win immediately tomorrow.
Over the past 200 years, wars have lasted an average of just over three months. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has now lasted a year. To negotiate or not to negotiate is a much-discussed issue. So, there is no counting the number of times that both the parties involved and the parties not involved have called for or proposed to come to the negotiating table. However, up to now, the door to negotiation has been firmly closed.
The crucial issues of territorial control and security are the most challenging to mediate, and it remains possible that both Ukraine and Russia will shy away from such mediation efforts,
If we consider the conflict in Ukraine as a pendulum, it swung most towards the Ukraine-US side from September to November 2022, after the events in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions. The problem for the West is that every new week the pendulum swings in Russia’s favor. Firstly, the army is replenished with a partial mobilization. Secondly, new capacities of Russian industry are being put into operation. Thirdly, the plan to destroy Ukraine’s energy infrastructure is being implemented at breakneck speed. Accordingly, the more time passes, the weaker Kiev’s military capabilities and psychological prestige will become.
Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, who has played a role in mediating between Moscow and Kiev, said that the peace dialogue between Moscow and Kiev in the spring of 2022 was interrupted at the initiative of the West. He added that both sides expressed their willingness to make serious concessions, and the chances of successful negotiations were “not bad” at that time. In particular, according to Bennett, Ukraine had abandoned its intention to join NATO at that time.
Analysts say that this confession of the former Israeli prime minister shows the calculation in the policies of the US and the EU. Experts believe that although the West always declares and calls for peace, it is actually interested in prolonging the conflict as long as possible, to weaken Russia.
The US is trying to make the most of the ongoing conflict. In particular, to transfer the number of companies and attract investment from Europe to the US by provoking chaos in the Old World, as well as aggravating Russian-European relations. In other words, the US is making money from the conflict at the expense of Europe and Ukraine. And the Ukrainian conflict is a proxy war of the US.
And here the position of the Joe Biden administration coincides with the interests of Ukrainian President Zelensky – who does not need peace agreements. Therefore, President Zelensky, like the US administration, is ready to fight in Ukraine until the country is completely defeated and disintegrated.
In the rich EU member states, the socio-economic situation is getting worse. Deindustrialization has begun, and military arsenals are being depleted. They realize that all these problems cannot be solved without normalizing relations with Russia, and there will be no normalization without resolving the conflict in Ukraine.
In effect, Ukraine has been pushed out of the negotiating “equation.” So the question is, what is the best possible negotiating position that the US has always promised to give Ukraine? Obviously, there is none! The US will not create any favorable conditions for Ukraine. It only wants to keep the best conditions for itself. It seems that Washington only wants to maintain a comfortable mentality, as well as gain as much as possible from this conflict.