US-South Korea military exercise: A test for Kim Jong-un

Taking place in the context that not only the Korean peninsula but the whole world is paying attention to two upcoming events: the meeting between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un with South Korean President Moon Jae-in and US President Donald Trump, these exercises are considered a test of Kim Jong-un's goodwill in his efforts to find a peaceful solution for the Korean peninsula.

US and South Korean soldiers practice with smoke bombs. Photo: Getty Images

US - Korea has no way back

Since mid-March, when the US and South Korea announced plans to conduct the “Foal Eagle” and “Key Resolve” exercises, there have been many concerns that this action could harm the prospects for negotiations on the Korean Peninsula - which have been assessed to be progressing in the right direction since the 2018 Pyeongchang Olympics in South Korea.

However, there is reason to understand that the US and South Korea cannot avoid conducting this exercise, even though the exercises have always encountered strong reactions from North Korea.

First, ahead of Kim Jong-un’s meeting with South Korean President Moon Jae-in scheduled for this month and Kim Jong-un’s meeting with US President Donald Trump a month later, the US and South Korea need to demonstrate that they will not make too many concessions to North Korea at the negotiating table.

Second, the outcome of any meetings, if they do take place, remains uncertain, so the US and South Korea need to send a message to North Korea that they still have contingency plans in place for worst-case scenarios.

In fact, this approach has been maintained by the US for many months, when implementing sanctions against North Korea in parallel with sending signals of readiness for dialogue.

In addition, the exercise also shows that the US and South Korea are still a strong alliance, not divided on the North Korea issue as some speculations have appeared before.

Although the exercises are still being conducted as planned, the US and South Korea have also shown their goodwill in creating a favorable atmosphere for upcoming dialogues by reducing the duration of the exercises and "keeping at home" some of their most powerful strategic weapons.

With more than 11,000 US troops, including reinforcements from abroad, and 300,000 South Korean soldiers, the exercise has not seen a major change in the number of soldiers participating compared to last year, but the duration has been halved from 2 months to 1 month.

In addition, US strategic assets such as supercarriers or nuclear submarines will not appear. The US Department of Defense does not provide details about the hypothetical situations in the exercises or other details to "avoid affecting the objectives of the exercise".

The US side also reiterated its stance that the US-ROK military exercises are only defensive in nature, necessary to maintain the readiness of the two countries' militaries, not to deal with North Korea and unrelated to recent developments on the Korean peninsula.

"Let the iron fish go, catch the perch"

Until now, whenever the US and South Korea conduct large-scale military exercises, North Korea has always reacted very strongly, not only in words but also in actual actions, namely missile and nuclear tests.

However, this time, the reaction from North Korea is said to be "unusually gentle", even though North Korea also received official notice of this exercise in mid-March. Therefore, the public is really curious about what North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is calculating?

There are two most notable hypotheses put forward so far to explain North Korea's silence on the US-South Korea military exercises.

First, North Korea is showing a turning point in its approach to the nuclear issue. Instead of the provocative and tough attitude of continuously testing missiles and nuclear weapons as in 2016 and 2017, since the beginning of 2018, North Korea has taken many actions to demonstrate its willingness to dialogue, starting with steps to reconcile with South Korea, sending a delegation of athletes to participate in the Pyeongchang Olympics and Paralympics in South Korea, followed by agreeing to arrange a meeting between leader Kim Jong-un, South Korean President Moon Jae-in and US President Donald Trump.

Kim Jong-un's surprise visit to China last week was also a sign that North Korea is making serious preparations for talks.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is showing his calmness ahead of the annual US-South Korea military exercises. Photo: Daily Star

Analysts believe that Kim Jong-un may now be satisfied with his missile and nuclear programs, so there is no need to maintain a tense confrontation, but instead seek a solution to help North Korea escape the current difficult situation of being besieged and embargoed.

This speculation may be right or wrong, but it is clear that Mr. Kim Jong-un is trying to build the image of a leader willing to "sit at the table" with world leaders to find a solution to the North Korean problem, and his silence on the US-South Korea military exercises is a significant plus for building this image.

But more importantly, Kim Jong-un is said to be employing the tactic of “letting go of the iron fish to catch the perch”. He also clearly understands that the US and South Korea cannot avoid conducting military exercises.

If you can't stop it, why not turn it into a negotiating advantage? During a meeting between special envoys of South Korean President Moon Jae-in and the North Korean leader to prepare for the inter-Korean summit, Kim Jong-un also said that he understood that the drills would be held as planned this year, while not giving any direct comments on the matter.

The restrained attitude towards the US-South Korea military exercises may be evidence that North Korea is really focusing on the summit meetings, and this will be a valuable bargaining chip for North Korea at the negotiating table in the direction: "North Korea has made concessions, now it's the US and South Korea's turn!".

Analysts say Kim Jong-un may skip the usual measures to respond to the drills, but is certainly calculating bigger demands.

North Korea's demands could include a formal peace treaty ending the war on the Korean peninsula, recognition of North Korea's full diplomatic status, billions of dollars in economic aid, or a complete US withdrawal from the Korean peninsula...

However, all hypotheses are still just speculation, while Mr. Kim Jong-un is still considered an unpredictable leader. Therefore, there is no certainty about how long North Korea will maintain this gentle behavior, especially recently there are signs that North Korea is preparing for a new nuclear weapons test.

As the summits draw closer, perhaps all the international community can do is wait and count down the days to see what will actually happen on the Korean peninsula.