As the coronavirus pandemic, also known as Covid-19, claimed over 6 million lives worldwide, many concerns arose about what human life would be like in the post-Covid-19 era. Particularly important were issues concerning population and the workforce needed for development after a long period of devastation caused by the pandemic.
Analyzing the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on population and human resources is becoming a highly debated topic worldwide. Positive demographers argue that the Covid-19 pandemic directly impacts the global population and, consequently, the human resources needed for development in the coming years. Those who hold this view believe that Covid-19 is a population filter following a harsh rule that no one wants to witness: the law of "survival of the fittest." Covid-19 is like a brutal purge of human society, eliminating those who are weak, have underlying health conditions, or have poor immunity. Some people's assessment is even coldly rational, arguing that while this purge has caused international shock and fear, it has also helped to reduce population pressure on natural resources and lessen the consumption burden on the Earth's economies. The population decline is largely due to the elderly, the sick, and those with poor health. Furthermore, economies have had to cut costs, especially in energy and other resources, or seek new soft power sources to develop and adapt to the post-Covid-19 era.
The arguments of positivists were immediately met with opposition from moral economists. They argued that viewing the pandemic as a force for population cleansing and reducing pressure on resources was insensitive. A pandemic is something no one wants, and it certainly cannot be considered a positive factor for humanity, given that it has claimed millions of lives. Rapid population growth puts pressure on resources and the general conditions of the Earth, and limiting population growth is a strategy for nations and the world as a whole. However, it needs to be implemented through appropriate programs that prioritize human values. Moral economists also criticized rationalistic demographic viewpoints, which they argued could lead to a risk in many places, especially poor countries, of neglecting or lacking enthusiasm in treating those infected with Covid-19.
These two viewpoints have attracted much discussion and even heated debates. In reality, rational demographers did not create the pandemic; they merely analyzed the situation based on statistical data published by various countries and organizations. While their perspective may seem somewhat detached, it still holds certain value as a point of reference. Ethicists, on the other hand, demonstrate a more humanistic perspective by viewing the pandemic with greater compassion, and particularly by expressing concern about the potential consequences of neglecting human lives due to increasingly subjective and overly rational responses to Covid-19. More recently, demographic and development studies have delved deeper into concerns about the quality of human resources for economic recovery, aiming for a more comprehensive discussion of this issue.
Will the pandemic significantly alter the world's population? This is a question of great concern to many. Demographers have analyzed data to provide evidence. As of the end of March 2022, the Covid-19 pandemic had claimed the lives of 6.14 million people worldwide and directly affected the health of approximately 463 million infected. These are horrific numbers for a pandemic. However, considering the overall global population dynamics, the changes are significant but not overly drastic. Under normal circumstances, approximately 141 million people are born and about 60 million die each year. The number of deaths due to Covid-19, after more than three years, accounts for 10.2% of the total number of deaths in a given year and nearly 4.4% of the total number of births in a given year. For example, in Vietnam, we have lost over 410,000 people to Covid-19, the greatest loss since the two wars to defend the country in the last century. But will it significantly change Vietnam's population picture, considering our current total population is 98,564,407; each year, 1,545,374 children are born, 632,573 people die, and the natural population increase is 912,801? Certainly, it will, but not significantly. Thus, the Covid-19 pandemic has affected the world's population, but not to the extent of fundamentally changing the global or national population picture. However, the pandemic has had a strong impact on the human resources of most countries in particular and the world in general.
The impact of the pandemic on human resources, when viewed solely from the death toll or the number of infections, only represents a small fraction. A large proportion of those infected are outside the working age group, and the majority of those who died were elderly, frail, or had underlying health conditions. However, the most significant impact on human resources stems from the widespread reach and multifaceted effects of the pandemic. The pandemic forced billions into quarantine, mobilized hundreds of millions more to treat patients or participate in disease prevention and control efforts. It also prevented hundreds of millions of children from attending school, and thousands of schools, from preschool to university, had to change their teaching methods. It can be said that the Covid-19 pandemic has severely depleted the energy of billions of people worldwide. And even when the pandemic is controlled and activities return to normal, its consequences will remain immense. After a long period of intense efforts to combat the pandemic, people's energy is depleted and requires a long time to recover. This affects the frequency and efficiency of activities in many sectors. Furthermore, post-pandemic psychological trauma is also a serious problem, exemplified by conditions such as depression, fatigue, anxiety, nervous disorders, social anxiety, and substance abuse. Economists have also mentioned and warned about labor shortages or reduced labor quality after Covid-19. Moreover, with hundreds of millions of children unable to attend school, the impact on education also affects the workforce in the near future.
In short, the Covid-19 pandemic has directly impacted the world's population, but this impact has not yet changed the global demographic landscape. The debate between positive demographers and ethical economists clarifies this. However, in every respect, Covid-19 has strongly affected the human resources of nations and the globe. On one hand, the pandemic directly impacted the health of hundreds of millions infected and billions of others. On the other hand, it also caused significant psychological trauma to hundreds of millions worldwide and affected the quality of education in many countries. This makes the human resources needed for post-Covid-19 development a matter of great concern. Therefore, even during the transition to the new normal, we need to implement measures to address the issue of human resources for future development, as this is a crucial factor determining the recovery of the national economy.
Article by: Thien Trang
Illustrative photos: Mai Hoa – Thanh Cuong – Tran Chau
