Russia Excluded from G8: Will the World Order Change?

(Baonghean) - The US and the West continue to plan sanctions against Russia after Moscow took over the Crimean peninsula in southern Ukraine. One of the most notable sanctions is the decision by the leaders of the world's leading economies to end Russia's role in the G8 group of industrial powers, and now the G8 is only the G7, like before 1999. This is a particularly important event in international relations and will have unpredictable effects on the world order.

On the sidelines of the Third Nuclear Security Summit in The Hague (Netherlands), US President Barak Obama chaired an informal meeting of the Group of Seven (G7) industrialized nations, including the UK, France, the US, Germany, Italy, Japan and Canada, to discuss sanctions against Russia following its annexation of Crimea. The main content of the meeting was the G7's decision to postpone its participation in the upcoming G8 Summit (including the G7 countries and Russia) in Sochi (Russia), and instead hold a conference in Brussels, Belgium without Russia. This means that Russia has been excluded from the G8 group of industrialized nations. This is the latest direct response from Western countries, which, according to European Council President Van Rompuy, is a punitive measure against Russia's annexation of Crimea.

According to analysts, the tough measures and threats of the West are designed to prevent what they fear is that Russia may make further advances into Ukraine, especially in the eastern region, where many ethnic Russians and Russian speakers live. In fact, the Crimea issue can be considered a “fait accompli”. Currently, the West is concerned about the wave of separatism in eastern Ukraine, because in some provinces in this region there are campaigns for referendums on autonomy.

In the face of this "sanction" from the West, Russia appeared "calm" and did not consider this a big problem because according to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, the G8 is an informal club, no country has the right to grant admission or expel any country from the group. The Russian side also said that if Russia leaves the G8, this world's leading economic forum will no longer have any meaning. It can be seen that each side has its own reasons, but it is clear that the recent actions of the US and the West will have a negative impact on all sides.

For the countries in the G7 group, the prestige and power of the group will be somewhat reduced after the isolation of Russia, especially in the context of the increasingly prominent international role of the group of major economies (G20). The G8 was established with the main idea of ​​forming a forum for negotiations between leading Western countries and Russia to resolve bottlenecks in the world's economic and industrial development. When Russia officially became the 8th member of the group, many commentators said that the Group of 7 countries joined hands with Russia partly due to Russia's economic potential, resources and huge nuclear arsenal, inherited from the Soviet era.

Therefore, it is clear that Russia has a significant position in this group of leading economies. With the decision to isolate Russia, in the immediate future, the G7 will certainly have to find ways to reduce its energy dependence on Moscow. Furthermore, the relationship between Russia and the West, which has been troubled since the Cold War, will have even less chance of being repaired. Finding consensus between the US, the West and Russia on international issues, especially those requiring Russia's support, will become increasingly difficult.

For Russia, although the announcement that being excluded from the G8 is not a big deal, in reality, this also causes Russia to face challenges, including finding new partners. The countries in the G7 group have also been major partners of Russia for many years. This incident will certainly cause investors to lose confidence in the Russian market. In fact, Russian stocks have recently fallen to their lowest level in the past 5 years. Investors have withdrawn capital strongly from here. Credit rating agency Standard & Poor's has downgraded Russia's credit outlook to "negative", from "stable", due to concerns about the impact on the economy of Western sanctions.

After all, the G8 and G7 are both cooperation in a forum of leading economies with important voices deciding many economic and political issues in the world. Therefore, the cohesion or division between members has an important meaning for the international political atmosphere. The fact that a member of the G8 group was excluded from the "game" is unprecedented since the major countries came together in a forum to fight against a common "enemy" of economic crisis and recession. And it is easy to see that the world order has been disrupted. The principle of cooperation to solve common challenges seems to be broken. And this is not beneficial for a world that needs cooperation, sharing and shouldering common responsibilities like today.

Thanh Huyen