So much hope, so much disappointment!

(Baonghean) - After months of non-stop diplomacy and nearly 13 hours of negotiations last weekend in Geneva (Switzerland), Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his US counterpart John Kerry agreed on a ceasefire plan in Syria and established the basis for the peace process in this Middle Eastern country.

Considered a "turning point" and "historic opportunity", is this the last page for the Syrian crisis?

US Secretary of State John Kerry (left) and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov (right) reached a historic agreement on a ceasefire in Syria over the weekend. Photo: CNN.

Inside and outside consensus

US Secretary of State John Kerry called the new agreement with Russia a turning point in the war that has killed 500,000 people in Syria over the weekend. In response, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said the agreement would help expand the fight against terrorism and deliver aid to Syrian civilians under the auspices of the United Nations.

According to observers, the new ceasefire agreement in Syria can be said to be the greatest opportunity ever for the conflicting parties in Syria to sit at the negotiating table, move towards resolving the conflict and seeking peace through diplomatic means. Not only that, this agreement also includes humanitarian aid and joint military cooperation against terrorist groups that are raging here.

Under the deal, Russia will pressure the Syrian government to stop all attacks against the Syrian armed opposition in some areas, while the US will have to convince moderate rebels to cut ties with the Nusra Front, an affiliate of Al Qaeda, and other terrorist groups.

The ceasefire will begin at midnight on September 12 and last for a week, coinciding with the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Adha. It is the result of tireless diplomatic efforts between the parties, especially Russia and the US, most recently four meetings between the two countries’ foreign ministers since August 26 and a direct meeting between Russian President Putin and US President Obama in China recently.

More happily, on September 10, Syria’s state news agency SANA reported that the Syrian government had accepted the ceasefire agreement brokered by Russia and the United States. Along with that, a series of countries such as Türkiye, Egypt, the United Kingdom and France have all welcomed this agreement.

The five-year Syrian crisis, which has claimed 500,000 lives, is still waiting for a final conclusion. Photo: CNN.

Effort or calculation?

Undeniably, both the US and Russia have their reasons for reaching a ceasefire agreement in Syria this time. Russia must also be watching the movements of other countries, especially after Türkiye unexpectedly joined hands with the US to fight against IS in Syria. It is clear that Türkiye has its own calculations that Russia is not aware of.

That is why there is an opinion that Russia and the Syrian government have taken a step back this time by agreeing to let the Syrian government stop airstrikes on opposition targets and leave this job to the Russian and US air forces. This attitude is completely different from before, when Russia and the Syrian government both strongly opposed the US "ultimatum" requiring the Syrian air force not to fly over Kurdish territory in Syria.

Meanwhile, on the US side, President Obama's administration probably also wants to have a quieter time before the important presidential election at the end of the year. Second, announcing a ceasefire in Syria could also give Mr. Obama another mark at the end of his term.

But from another perspective, many opinions believe that the recent agreement will help the US and Turkey to be more legitimate in their steps in Syria. This move not only increases the role of the US and Türkiye in the Syrian hotspot; for the US, this is also a move to drag Türkiye deeper into Syria. The more Turkey is troubled by both domestic terrorism and the Syrian civil war, the more the US role will be enhanced. Of course, then Ankara will gradually return to the orbit that the US always wants.

Aleppo - The dead city. Photo: CNN.

Still a mess

Reaching an agreement is a breakthrough, but implementing it is a long way off. The agreement between Russia and the US has just reached basically agreed on the need to screen opposition and terrorist forces. However, this is the difficult problem and the biggest disagreement that has not been resolved between Russia and the US during the negotiation process. What will be the criteria and basis for classifying terrorist groups from the opposition that is mushrooming in Syria. Especially among them are groups funded by the US. These forces themselves are also being transformed, changing their names to avoid airstrikes by the Syrian government, making it difficult for Washington to clearly distinguish.

Meanwhile, on the Russian side, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also emphasized that it is impossible to ensure 100% certainty that the agreement has just been reached, because there are many parties involved in the process of resolving the Syrian crisis. That is, whether this agreement is complied with or not depends on the attitude not only of the Syrian government, armed opposition factions, and also the third party, the terrorist organizations that are dominating the situation in Syria. Meanwhile, the High Negotiations Committee (HNC) - the main opposition force in Syria, recently said that it has not yet received the "official" text of the above agreement.

Back to the situation on the ground in Syria, just hours after Russia and the US reached a ceasefire agreement on September 10, the Aleppo Media Center reported that at least 45 people were killed in intense airstrikes that day in and around the city of Aleppo. The violence immediately cast a shadow, leaving many Syrians not very optimistic about the prospects of this ceasefire.

So it can be said that the effort is there. But it is also worth mentioning that in February of this year, Russia and the US also reached a similar ceasefire agreement in Syria, but this agreement collapsed shortly after. Meanwhile, individual calculations are always present in each solution to the Syrian crisis. Therefore, the end of the 5-year civil war in this Middle Eastern country may not be possible yet!

Phuong Hoa