Russia is tired of the Ukraine "game."

October 28, 2014 11:13

Peace is still a long way off for Ukraine, but at least the gunfire has subsided and the tit-for-tat exchanges between Russia and the EU have died down. Experts believe this is because Russia has grown weary.

Tổng thống Nga V.Putin (trái) và Phó Thủ tướng Dmitri Kozak
Russian President Vladimir Putin (left) and Deputy Prime Minister Dmitri Kozak

In reality, both Russia and the EU are exhausted, and perhaps that is why, after the conclusion of the European Union summit last weekend, no new sanctions were imposed on Russia.

For their part, despite having previously made strong statements about taking appropriate retaliatory measures against the EU, the Russians ultimately did nothing.

Speaking at a Russian government meeting at the end of September, both Deputy Prime Minister Arkadi Dvorkovich and Dmitri Kozak frankly admitted Russia's fatigue related to sanctions imposed by the US and its EU allies.

Furthermore, domestic experts believe that Russia's imposition of a ban on food imports from the EU and the US was a mistake, and therefore the Kremlin will not repeat it.

Some neutral analysts argue that Russia's halt in escalating tensions is partly due to the initial success of peace initiatives in eastern Ukraine.

Many will surely remember that, immediately after the EU and the US decided to pass another package of sanctions against Russia, the country's Foreign Ministry issued a statement that these measures would receive a fitting response from the Kremlin. At the same time, the President's assistant, Andrei Belousov, also stated that Russia's second wave of retaliation would include bans on the import of automobiles, clothing, wood products, and various financial services…

Following this, the Russian Minister of Economic Development announced that retaliation might include products such as refrigerators or petrochemicals. Meanwhile, Russian Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev threatened to ban Western flights from Russian airspace.

However, Russian officials have remained relatively silent so far, with some even hinting that further retaliatory measures will not be taken. Within the Russian government, drafting retaliatory measures is no longer a priority; instead, meetings are focused on adapting to the new situation.

According to RIA Novosti, citing Dmitri Kozak, Russia has decided not to engage in further snowballing with the US and EU because these measures do not benefit the economy. Meanwhile, experts believe that Putin's retaliatory measure of banning food imports, implemented since August 6th, has failed to achieve its intended purpose.

Following this ban, the Russian market immediately experienced a 20% shortfall in total domestic consumption, while the consequences for the West were minimal, as Russian exports accounted for only about 1%.

Phó thủ tướng Nga Arkadi Dvorkovich
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Arkadi Dvorkovich

Expert Alexay Arbatov from the Institute of Economic Research emphasized that Russia needs to reconsider the administrative decision that has caused shortages of goods on the market and soaring prices, affecting the lives of millions of people.

Furthermore, Russia has virtually no retaliatory measures that could endanger its adversaries while remaining safe for itself. For example, a plan to ban Western airlines from flying through Russian airspace could cost the country billions of dollars in air traffic revenue. In addition, if the US and EU also adopted similar retaliatory measures, Russia's largest airline, Aeroflot, risks bankruptcy.

Experts believe that Russia should not continue the "clash" with an unequal opponent.

On the other hand, some argue that the main reason Russia stopped retaliating was because they saw Kyiv as being "at a dead end," having de-escalated and become more reasonable. Meanwhile, progress in finding a political and diplomatic solution to the crisis in Ukraine has made Russia... more satisfied.

On the other side of the conflict, the EU and the US are not unaware of the futility and harm of this game. After days of "aggressive" behavior, the West has softened its tone and understands that threatening language will not deter Russia in the slightest.

According to Infonet