Why is the Thai military government 'secretly happy' when Ms. Yingluck flees?

Thailand's military government may have finally gotten what it wanted when former Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra fled abroad to avoid impeachment.

Thailand's military government may be able to avoid the risk of unrest if Ms. Yingluck flees. In the photo: Thai police outside the Supreme Court before Ms. Yingluck's impeachment hearing on the morning of August 25. Photo: AFP

Thai military government "breathes a sigh of relief"?

Wall Street JournalOn August 27, the newspaper published a commentary regarding Ms. Yingluck's escape from Thailand right before the impeachment trial.

Sources familiar with Thailand's military government said the government had long feared the risk of large-scale protests if Ms Yingluck was convicted and imprisoned, fearing a repeat of the riots that rocked Bangkok in 2006 when former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra was ousted.

Another source familiar with the matter said the military government aims to gradually pressure Ms Yingluck until she is forced to choose the path of fleeing abroad.

The newspaper pointed out that Ms. Yingluck's escape could help generals in the Thai military government avoid the scenario where Ms. Yingluck would be considered a "sacrificer for a great cause" if she were convicted by the government and sentenced to prison.

Yingluck, 50, Thailand’s first female prime minister, was ousted in a military coup in 2014. She is accused of negligence in a rice subsidy scheme that cost the government billions of dollars. If convicted, she faces up to 10 years in prison and a lifetime ban from politics under a new military-drafted constitution.

Yingluck has so far denied the charges. Meanwhile, her support base in Thailand remains strong, as evidenced by the thousands of supporters who gathered outside the court ahead of the verdict on August 25.

"A guilty or acquitted verdict for Yingluck would be unsatisfying to either side of Thailand's political spectrum," said Paul Chambers, research director at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Chiang Mai. "Thailand remains incredibly divided 16 years after former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, Yingluck's brother, was first elected."

This expert believes that Ms. Yingluck’s “disappearance” from Thai politics will be a victory for the military government at least in the short term. However, in the long term, the Thai military government will have to learn lessons from the case of former Prime Minister Thaksin.

"An acquittal for Yingluck would help ease concerns about further violence. But a verdict against the former prime minister would increase the risk of further political unrest," said Win Udomrachtavanich, chairman of a Bangkok-based securities firm.

Last minute decision

Experts say that Ms. Yingluck's decision to flee abroad could be the end of the Shinawatra family's influence in Thai politics. Photo: Bloomberg

A source close to the Shinawatra family said that Ms. Yingluck may have only decided to flee the country at the last minute after knowing that she would almost certainly be convicted and sentenced to prison. Previously, Ms. Yingluck had said that she would pursue the case to the end and would not leave Thailand.

Thai media reported that Ms. Yingluck may have fled abroad a few days before the impeachment trial on the morning of August 25.

Deputy Police Chief Srivara Ransibrahmanakul told reporters that intelligence showed that Ms. Yingluck was still at her home in Bangkok until at least 2 p.m. on August 23. However, he declined to provide further details.

Ms Yingluck is believed to have left Thailand, passed through Cambodia, flown to Singapore and then to Dubai to reunite with her brother Thaksin, who is living in exile. The former Thai prime minister may then seek political asylum in the UK, local media reported.

Yingluck's escape is believed to have been aided by several high-ranking officials in the Thai government. However, Thai Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Prawit Wongsuwan has denied this speculation and affirmed that he does not know where Yingluck is currently, and the government has not made any extradition request.

Meanwhile, observers believe that Ms. Yingluck's flight abroad could put an "end" to the Shinawatra family's influence in Thai politics.

According to Dan Tri