An 'uncontrollable' North Korea could spark nuclear war

(Baonghean.vn)- Defense analysts say that despite efforts by the US and its allies to avoid the risk of war with North Korea, there is a “quite high” possibility that the Kim Jong-un regime will launch a nuclear attack within the next 12-18 months.

Professor Malcolm Davis from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute said the US, South Korea, China, Japan and Australia are trying to reach a peaceful solution with North Korea, but these diplomatic efforts have little prospect of success.

North Korea test-launches a missile. Photo: AP

SBS news agency quoted the senior defense strategy analyst as saying: “We have been trying since 1994, but in return, North Korea has only promoted its nuclear weapons and missile programs.” This expert warned that North Korea could launch a nuclear attack early next year.

“We will continue to pressure North Korea to not push the situation to the brink of war, but North Korea may not comply,” Mr. Davis said.

One option that could be put forward to strengthen deterrence against North Korea's use of nuclear weapons is through the threat of retaliation against the Pyongyang regime. Another option being considered is a preemptive strike using conventional (non-nuclear) forces.

North Korean soldiers parade along Kim Il Sung Square. Photo: AP

Professor Davis said the Trump administration would choose the path of deterrence against “an uncontrollable regime determined to threaten its neighbors.” He pointed out that the risk now is that North Korea could continue to develop nuclear weapons capabilities, such as submarine-launched ballistic missiles, while the US can currently only defend against land-based missiles.

If they choose the preemptive path, they will have to deal with North Korea responding with weapons of mass destruction against South Korea and Japan. Specifically, Pyongyang could use artillery against Seoul, or conduct chemical or nuclear attacks against South Korea and Japan.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un gives instructions to defense generals. Photo: Getty

Meanwhile, Professor Ben Zala from the Australian National University's Department of International Relations said that China could be relied on to ease tensions, as it does not want a nuclear-rich Korean Peninsula. China wants to put economic pressure on North Korea to force it to stop nuclear and missile tests.

But Beijing would negotiate with Pyongyang once the US reduces its current troop presence on the Korean Peninsula, currently at 28,000, and limits joint military exercises with South Korea, as well as reduces criticism of China on the South China Sea issue.

Zala believes that the threat from North Korea could be reduced if the US accepts a nuclear-armed North Korea. According to Zala, Kim Jong-un is a rational leader, so when he realizes that nuclear war would be suicidal, he will not proceed./.

Lan Ha

(According to SBS)