Pig prices are 'sunny in the morning and rainy in the afternoon', not excluding the influence of 'underground forces'

After the pork price increased to 45,000 VND/kg, then dropped to 35,000 - 36,000 VND/kg, lasting for a month, from August 10th it gradually decreased, now only 30,000 - 31,000 VND/kg.

With this price of pigs, farmers face losses, but still have to continue to keep their herds to pay off their debts to feed dealers in a "dilemma".

Pig prices are difficult to predict.

Mr. Le Nam Hai, Gia Kiem commune, Thong Nhat district, has a farm raising 500 pigs, so he monitors the daily fluctuations in the price of live pigs. Statistics show that the price of pigs in Dong Nai province from July 17 to 24 was 40,000 VND/kg; July 25 to 26 was 38,000 VND; July 27 to 30 was 36,500 VND; from July 31 to August 15, it gradually decreased to 30,000 - 31,000 VND and has remained so far.

Currently, only households with good pigs and "good" customers can sell them for 30,000 - 31,000 VND/kg. "However, on September 5, I called the traders many times to sell 45 pigs, but almost the whole day ended and they still hadn't come," Mr. Hai said.

Pig price has been 30,000 - 31,000 VND/kg in the past 20 days.

Mr. Vy Huong Manh, owner of a farm in Xa Lo 25, Thong Nhat district, said that with the current fluctuating and decreasing pork prices, farmers are worried and continue to face losses. "The farm's production cost is usually at 35,000 VND/kg, so it is clear that the farm has lost about 4,000-5,000 VND/kg in the past 20 days," said Mr. Manh.

According to some breeders, the "dancing" price of pigs has caused them many disadvantages, especially in buying animal feed.

Because when the price of pigs decreased, many pig feed dealers began to stop selling on credit or close the books to collect previous debts. “There are still a few months left until the end of the year, and farmers are actually trying to keep their herds, waiting for prices to increase during the holidays, but some pig feed dealers are urging them to pay their debts. Therefore, many people have to sell at a loss to pay off some of the feed costs,” said Mr. Nguyen Van Chin, Chairman of the People’s Committee of Highway 25 Commune.

Dilemma

Mr. Nguyen Kim Doan, Vice President of Dong Nai Livestock Association, shared that the price of live pigs in Dong Nai is low due to many reasons, but mainly because supply still exceeds demand. In addition, exports to China through official and unofficial channels have not shown any positive signs. Previously, there were over 200 trucks carrying pigs (an average of 150 pigs/truck) passing through the Chinese border gate per day, but now there are only 50-60 trucks.

On the other hand, according to Mr. Doan, every year in the 7th lunar month (commonly known as "ghost month"), pork prices drop due to slow consumption. In addition, the price drop is also due to "underground forces" in the livestock industry colluding to manipulate prices, causing farmers to suffer losses.

Pig exports to China show no positive signs

Mr. Tran Van Quang, Head of the Dong Nai Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Department, said that the erratic price increases and decreases are bad signs for the market. When prices start to increase, farmers may hoard their goods, causing supply to decrease, causing prices to continue to rise. When prices reach their peak, farmers release more goods, causing supply to exceed demand, causing prices to fall again.

“This is the law of supply and demand. Now we have to regulate the market and stabilize prices so that farmers can reduce losses. Now that prices have dropped, farmers are hesitant to restock and are no longer rushing to raise livestock in the last months of the year like before,” Mr. Quang explained.

According to experts, the current price of pigs is not enough for farmers to maintain production and there is no clear signal that the price will increase due to saturated domestic supply and demand. Therefore, they are in a "dilemma", unable to retreat (because they have to raise pigs to pay off debts to feed dealers) but also unable to advance.

Not long before, the price increase was due to information about the return of informal export activities to the Chinese market, so there was a phenomenon of hoarding goods waiting for high prices to create a "fake supply shortage", besides that there were businesses that launched "fake prices" to sell breeding animals, not because consumers ate more pork.

In fact, the rescue of a series of agricultural products in recent times, most notably pork, has brought many valuable lessons. Therefore, according to experts, the unusual fluctuations in pork prices in the market need solutions and directions from managers so that farmers can take more careful and certain steps in the future.

According to Agriculture Newspaper