Mining is no longer the mainstay of Vietnam's economy.

Deputy Prime Minister Vuong Dinh Hue affirmed that mineral exploitation, especially crude oil, is no longer a mainstay for Vietnam's economy.

Cannot rely on crude oil forever

Speaking at the 4th session of the 14th National Assembly on October 24, Deputy Prime Minister Vuong Dinh Hue said that Vietnam's economic growth cannot rely on mining and capital as before.

Deputy Prime Minister Vuong Dinh Hue

Mr. Vuong Dinh Hue said that from 2016 to 2017, Vietnam began to face the reality of a continuous decline in the mining industry. Crude oil and coal were the main commodities that decreased due to difficulties in exploitation and high costs.

The Deputy Prime Minister affirmed that in the past two years, Vietnam has begun to face the reality that the mining industry has continuously declined and declined very deeply, first crude oil, then coal.

For crude oil, the 2017 exploitation plan is only 13.28 million tons, down 3 million tons compared to 2016 and down 4.54 million tons compared to 2015.
It is calculated that for every 1 million tons of crude oil decrease, GDP decreases by 0.25%. Accordingly, in 2017, a 3 million ton decrease in output caused GDP to decrease by 0.75%.

Mr. Vuong Dinh Hue emphasized: The mining industry in the first 9 months of 2017 decreased by 8.08%, so there is no growth based on this type of mineral. Now, if we want to exploit more to grow, we cannot because we have to go to far sea areas and crude oil reserves are decreasing.

In addition, the Deputy Prime Minister also said that the opinion that Vietnam's growth depends on capital is incorrect. Credit can be managed to grow 21%, but it depends on the absorption capacity. The first 9 months of this year only reached 11%, almost equal to last year, and from now until the end of the year, the Government will manage depending on the absorption capacity of the economy.

Where is the launch pad for growth?

According to Deputy Prime Minister Vuong Dinh Hue, Vietnam's current growth is largely based on industrial growth, especially the processing and manufacturing industry. Service and tourism growth contributes significantly to the country's GDP growth and can completely offset the shortage of crude oil exploitation.

In the manufacturing industry, Samsung's production recovery and growth of 45% in the third quarter contributed significantly to growth. Industrial production in many provinces and cities also increased. Of which, Bac Ninh increased by 25.1%, Hai Phong by 20.1%, Thai Nguyen by 18.1%, Hai Duong by 11.2%, Dong Nai by 8.3%...

If the situation continues like this, the manufacturing industry is expected to grow by 13.5%, the highest since 2010, not only compensating for the mining industry but also being a driving force for growth, Deputy Prime Minister Vuong Dinh Hue emphasized.

In addition, construction increased by 9-9.5% due to investment in urban infrastructure and FDI projects. The service sector also made a breakthrough in 2017, growing in line with the provinces. In which, wholesale and retail increased the most, international tourism increased by 1 million tourists per month.

International tourists to Vietnam are increasing.

The Deputy Prime Minister emphasized: Tourism and services alone contributed 3.2% growth points to the 6.7% GDP growth, higher than construction and completely offset the decline in oil and gas. It is better to increase 1 million tourists than increase 1 million tons of crude oil, because it is green, clean and beautiful.

Since the beginning of 2017, Vietnam has welcomed more than 1 million international tourists each month, and it is estimated that the number of international tourists for the whole year could reach 13 million.

Agriculture also grew impressively, in the first 9 months of 2017 it increased by 2.78%, 4.3 times higher than in 2016. The government strives for agricultural growth to reach 3-3.05% for the whole year. The contribution to the overall growth of agriculture is 4 times higher than in the same period in 2016. This year's agricultural exports are likely to reach 30-34 billion USD.

However, regarding the agricultural sector, National Assembly delegate Pham Phu Quoc, General Director of the Ho Chi Minh City State Financial Investment Company, said that although the impressive growth in the first three quarters of the year had a great contribution from the agricultural sector, if in the fourth quarter of this year, growth still relies on the contribution of agriculture, it must be considered because natural disasters have greatly affected this sector./.

According to VOV