Scenario of US blockade of China's sea lanes when conflict breaks out

Two months after being accused of illegally deploying anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles on artificial islands in Vietnam's Truong Sa archipelago, China recently conducted a landing exercise with H-6K bombers on a runway in the East Sea, most likely on Phu Lam Island in the Hoang Sa archipelago. The US has expressed concern and warned China about the "consequences" of these militarization actions in the East Sea.

This has also raised concerns among analysts about the risk of conflict breaking out in this strategically important sea area. The US has always considered the East Sea an international sea, where about 50% of the world's goods and trade circulate, while China has increasingly shown its ambition to monopolize the region.

China depends on foreign oil resources, while its sea lines of communication are easily cut off. Analysts say these are two weaknesses that the US can exploit in the event of a military conflict, to limit damage when facing China's very powerful anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) weapons systems, according to Diplomat.

Blockading a country during wartime has been used in the past. During World War I, Britain mobilized many warships to block all German sea supply routes, contributing to that country's defeat. The United States also blockaded Japan's sea routes during World War II, severely disrupting Tokyo's economy and military.

If an armed conflict with China breaks out, the US can mobilize aircraft carrier strike groups, submarines, and destroyers to key sea areas to prevent all maritime traffic to and from China.However, blocking China's sea lanes in the event of war today would be extremely difficult, said Gabriel Collins, an analyst at the US Naval War College.

Intercepting Beijing’s oil tanker operations would be complicated, given that many countries in the region share sea lanes with China. Additionally, the US Navy would have to block destinations in the Indian Ocean and South China Sea by sinking or seizing neutral-flagged tankers, an action that would certainly have political consequences for Washington.

According to Collins, blocking China could also cause a severe recession in the global economy, putting enormous pressure on the US and forcing it to end the war without gaining a clear advantage.

China can also take steps to mitigate the consequences of a maritime blockade, such as increasing domestic oil production, using alternative fuels, increasing oil imports from Russia, and changing the structure of its economy. A strong A2/AD deployment would help China protect its combat assets while its standing forces could maintain their strength, minus the damage caused by attrition.

Therefore, China will hardly fall into the same dire situation as Japan during World War II. Japan is not a country rich in resources, so when the US blockaded the sea, the Japanese fascist army did not have enough fuel to operate its naval and air force equipment. The battleship Yamato set sail on its final mission without enough fuel to return. This is almost impossible for China, due to the differences in geography and political situation.

In the event of a US-China war, Washington's efforts to blockade the sea from afar would be very difficult to succeed and the US could not rely on this measure alone to win, expert Collins commented.

Duy Son