Decoding the reasons for the resounding success of the US-North Korea Summit

So US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un met face to face. A dream US-North Korea summit actually took place safely on Sentosa Island in Singapore on June 12. A great summit down to the smallest details.

The two leaders shook hands and talked very friendly. Not only that, they also issued a joint statement.

These were previously unimaginable things. In fact, in 2014, American basketball star Dennis Rodman, who was close to Kim Jong-un, predicted that Trump would one day visit the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) to meet Kim, and Trump dismissed the idea as crazy.

Even recently, the prospect of holding this Summit has been somewhat thrilling, with North Korean officials threatening to cancel the meeting and Mr. Trump later announcing that he would not attend the event.

The successful US-North Korea Summit on June 12 is extremely valuable in the context that the two countries experienced several years of bloody war (1950-1953), the US implemented an embargo on North Korea for decades, and the two countries repeatedly fell into hostile war of words.

This summit and the Trump-Kim Joint Statement truly opened a new chapter in US-DPRK relations and Northeast Asian regional security in both the short and long term. Both sides committed to peace on the Korean Peninsula. North Korea reaffirmed its commitment to complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

Why was the Conference held and so successful?

North Korea's motives

North Korea has developed a powerful thermonuclear bomb and an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching the continental United States. It now possesses a sizeable nuclear arsenal and a diverse ballistic missile arsenal with a range of ranges (including medium and short range), corresponding to many targets such as South Korea, Japan and Guam (US).

It is relatively clear that North Korea's main goal in developing nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles is self-defense. Perhaps North Korea does not want to develop nuclear weapons. Because there is great pressure from the trend of denuclearization. Moreover, South Korea and Japan are currently not developing nuclear weapons. If North Korea continues to research and produce strategic weapons, an arms race in Northeast Asia may occur. At that time, with their potential, South Korea and Japan will be able to do the same thing as North Korea, making North Korea no longer have many advantages in terms of weapons.

In fact, North Korea's nuclear bomb and ballistic missile programs are not perfect and their number of weapons may not be large, but for the purpose of deterrence, it can be considered sufficient for this country. In addition, North Korea has promoted the dismantling of a nuclear test site and a missile test site, while keeping its commitment not to test nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles for many months.

It can be seen that the North Korean economy is still facing many difficulties. Even the plane of the country's supreme leader is old and has a low safety record. To attend the US-North Korea Summit in Singapore, Mr. Kim Jong-un had to fly on a Chinese airline. And his stay in Singapore was partly supported by the host country.

When the military potential aspect has stabilized, it is understandable that North Korea will focus on economic development. To achieve that, self-sufficiency is not enough, but the economic embargo must also be lifted. To stand shoulder to shoulder with the world powers, it cannot remain closed forever, but needs to reform and open up. It is possible that North Korea wants to follow both Vietnam's economic development model and Vietnam's diplomatic experience in breaking the diplomatic blockade, by creating a breakthrough in relations with the United States.

Of course, at this point, North Korea has a huge advantage in its strategic arsenal, which has grown to new heights. Looking at the image of Kim Jong-un in Singapore, we can see how confidently he walked into the US-North Korea Summit with his head held high. Surely the nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles card helped him confidently step into South Korean territory in April, into Chinese territory twice (in March and May), and confidently fly by Chinese plane over long distances to the island nation of Singapore.

North Korea's policy is to denuclearize step by step and synchronously, ensuring that it receives corresponding rewards from the US.

The Trump administration's motives

Initially, US President Donald Trump was very tough on North Korea. He repeatedly threatened war with this East Asian country. But when North Korea successively tested a thermonuclear bomb and an intercontinental ballistic missile with a range that could reach the US capital, Mr. Trump's tone gradually changed, towards a more conciliatory direction, accepting dialogue. Because, the reality is now different. Whether he likes it or not, North Korea has extremely scary weapons, directly threatening the US and its allies.

After leaning toward the possibility of dialogue, Mr. Trump continued to adjust his attitude. At first, he demanded the immediate complete denuclearization of North Korea, but later he became more flexible, tending to accept denuclearization step by step, at a pace suitable for North Korea.

President Trump has advocated investing heavily in domestic issues, trade protection, reducing military activities abroad, requiring NATO allies, Japan, and South Korea to gradually shoulder military costs.... He may want to quickly close the basic part of the North Korea dossier so that he can focus on the goal of "America first".

In addition, the United States is about to enter the midterm presidential elections, so Mr. Trump may be trying to score points for his side in the eyes of voters.

Besides, it is not impossible that Mr. Trump is harboring the "ambition" to be "carved" into history as a President who created peace on the Korean Peninsula and denuclearized North Korea - something that previous US presidents have failed to achieve. In the immediate future, he may strive for a prestigious Nobel Peace Prize.

So it was a natural development for Mr. Trump to accept negotiations with Kim Jong-un. In doing so, he also had the advantage of having “built” the image of a President with an erratic and unpredictable personality.

Kim Jong-un's courage

Kim Jong-un is a young leader but over time has affirmed his political qualities.

During the Inter-Korean Summit, Mr. Kim appeared directly and extensively in front of the world media for the first time. There, he demonstrated his calm and dignified diplomatic skills, from his walking style, his way of speaking, to his facial expressions. He appeared very skillful, smiled naturally, and won the hearts of the South Korean President as well as the South Korean television audience, who even thought Mr. Kim was very cute.

Leader Kim made many subtle moves, such as inviting President Moon Jae-in to step into North Korean territory - something that was outside the Summit's script.

This time, at the US-North Korea Summit in Singapore, Kim Jong-un once again demonstrated that and created sympathy in the other person. He once again smiled brightly, happily taking a selfie with the Singaporean Foreign Minister.

It can be said that Kim Jong-un is a new type of North Korean leader. Unlike his father and grandfather, Kim Jong-un is not afraid to travel abroad and is not afraid to take planes instead of trains (both domestically and internationally).

Strategically, Kim Jong-un has made concessions to the US, promising to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula - something that the US, South Korea and Japan all hope for. He has signaled dialogue with the US since the beginning of 2018. All of this has contributed to raising hopes on the US side.

North Korea is located at the crossroads of influence between many major powers (the United States, China, Russia, South Korea, and Japan). And Kim, as the supreme leader of North Korea, has managed to balance them quite well, making him a focal point in the geopolitical game in Northeast Asia. With Kim Jong-un’s spectacular “tightrope walking” skills, it seems that every country is trying to win over North Korea and this leader.

Before the US-North Korea Summit, senior officials from the US, South Korea, Russia and China all visited the capital Pyongyang.

Kim Jong-un has a strong sense of independence. After taking power in North Korea, he eliminated pro-China groups in his country's politics. For a long time, he did not visit Beijing or meet with President Xi Jinping. Kim has contributed to further strengthening the independence of North Korea, which was already high under Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il.

But suddenly, in 2018, Mr. Kim went to China and met directly with President Xi Jinping twice. Maybe Mr. Kim went to report the situation to Mr. Xi and gain more support from China. On the other hand, those two trips could be a signal reminding Mr. Trump to be more active in dialogue with North Korea.

And the US-North Korea Summit was successful, with the expectation of world public opinion, the cooperative attitude of the US, the support of Russia and China, the help of South Korea and the support of Singapore.

This year marks the 70th anniversary of the founding of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) and the Republic of Korea (ROK) on the Korean peninsula, so it is likely that Mr. Kim wants to create a real breakthrough for the Korean peninsula as well as his political career.

The Role of the South Korean President and the Inter-Korean Summit

The US-North Korea Summit took place in the context of many positive developments since the Inter-Korean Summit with the historic Panmunjom Declaration. To a greater or lesser extent, the Panmunjom Declaration on April 27 still created a favorable atmosphere for the US-North Korea Summit on June 12. In addition, other factors contributed to the success of this summit, such as the active activities of South Korean President Moon Jae-in.

Mr. Moon played a significant role in both the Inter-Korean Summit and the US-North Korea Summit. He took care of every little detail for both events.

Moon Jae-in belongs to the soft-spoken school and advocates peaceful relations with North Korea. He is a native of the northern part of the Korean Peninsula and has some personal affection for his homeland. President Moon has had to overcome many obstacles from the opposition within South Korea to maintain the path of dialogue and reconciliation with North Korea. He quickly seized the opportunity to negotiate with North Korea when it arose, patiently maintained peace with North Korea during the Winter Olympics and many events after, and persistently brought the US and North Korea closer together.

President Moon is so sincere about building peace on the Korean Peninsula that he lost sleep the night before the US-North Korea Summit, as he shared.

The road to true and lasting peace on the Korean Peninsula is still long, and the United States and North Korea will need to meet many more times. But thanks to the April 27 Panmunjom Declaration and the June 12 Trump-Kim Joint Statement, the path to peace and denuclearization in North Korea is clearer than ever.

The ball is now perhaps more in the court of President Trump and the US administration - can they really guarantee the security of Kim Jong-un's regime and what is the specific roadmap to achieve that?

Trung Hieu