Russian expert: Idlib is a thorn that needs to be removed as soon as possible

Illustration: Global Look Press

According to Mikhail Khodarenok, a retired colonel who served in the executive department of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, the Idlib de-escalation zone has “fulfilled its purpose and needs to be cleared as soon as possible,” as it is becoming a “source of instability and threat” that hinders further peace in Syria.

“The thorns need to be removed”

The area is controlled by a number of warring factions, including terrorist organizations such as the former al-Nusra Front (now Tahrir al-Sham). It poses a significant threat to both the local population and other parts of Syria, as well as to Russian forces stationed at Khmeimim Air Base. Terrorists seek to prevent the separation of extremist forces from other armed groups “by all means possible”.

At the same time, they have launched attacks on other parts of Syria using Idlib facilities. In early August, Russian forces shot down more than a dozen drones near Khmeimim, which had flown from rebel-held areas in Idlib in just a few days.

Earlier, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called the province, which is largely controlled by al-Qaeda affiliate Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a “terrorist hotbed” that remains a matter of “particular concern” for Russia, Syria and Türkiye. He added that a “large group of terrorists has entrenched itself there,” undermining any diplomatic and political settlement.

Russia has also repeatedly warned that militants were preparing a “false flag” chemical weapons attack in the province. Moscow even provided evidence of this planned provocation to the United Nations and the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW).

“Idlib is a thorn that needs to be removed as soon as possible, otherwise the promotion of the peace process in Syria simply will not be effective,” Khodarenok asserted.

Russian Sukhoi Su-34 aircraft. Photo: Reuters

“Exclude the use of disproportionate force”

Idlib is a large and densely populated province with a significant number of civilians living there, Khodarenok warned, while the number of militants, including their relatives, could be around 50,000 to 60,000. The capital Idlib alone has a population of 3 million. According to the expert, the Syrian Army, backed by the Russian Air Force, can still avoid significant civilian casualties as they have a lot of experience fighting in cities.

“In general, the entire war in Syria is fought in urban or suburban areas; hardly anyone fights in the desert areas, which make up most of Syria,” the retired colonel said, adding that the Syrian army and Russian forces “will certainly take all necessary steps to prevent civilian deaths, so we can rule out the use of disproportionate force in such an operation.”

One possible tactic that Damascus and Moscow could use in this campaign is one they first used in the liberation of Aleppo, Syria’s other major city, and later in Deir-ez-Zor and other populated areas held by militants. It involves establishing humanitarian corridors for civilians to evacuate from the fighting.

The Syrian army will also likely rely on well-trained and battle-tested strike groups that have years of combat experience and participated in major battles in the Syrian conflict. When the situation calls for it, Khodarenok said, these groups could include mechanized infantry, tanks, armored fighting vehicles, and engineering forces such as bomb disposal experts.

If necessary, the troops on the ground could be backed up by artillery and air power, and are expected to use precision-guided munitions, such as bombs and guided missiles, thereby significantly reducing the possibility of causing unnecessary damage, the expert added.

Clip: Attacking terrorist targets in Idlib. Source: Russian Ministry of Defense

VIDEO of strikes on terrorist targets in#Idlibreleased by Russian Ministry of Defensehttps://t.co/zt9qd3yVZApic.twitter.com/H58qq4D3Zd

— RT (@RT_com)September 6, 2018

“The gunmen had no choice but to surrender or be defeated”

The battle for Idlib is the last straw in Syria’s long-running conflict, which could soon be coming to an end. Khodarenok said that means the armed groups currently entrenched in the province have only two options: “lay down their weapons” or “be destroyed on the battlefield.”

The military expert said that any other option, such as establishing another “de-escalation zone” on Syrian territory, was no longer feasible. However, he also admitted that some fighters could eventually be transferred from Syria to Türkiye or Saudi Arabia if the governments of these countries agreed to accept them and reached relevant agreements with Damascus.

“If Türkiye and Saudi Arabia refuse to participate in determining the fate of the militants, they will have no choice but to be crushed on the battlefield” or “lay down their weapons and surrender to the Syrian Army,” the retired colonel stressed. In this way, the final defeat of the militants in Idlib province “will only be a matter of time.”

Thu Giang