The whole world is anxiously following the US-China trade war.

While responding strongly and sending out sharp warnings, US President Donald Trump shows that it will be very difficult to predict his next move, and that makes the world even more uneasy because no one is sure that they will be exempted from US tariffs.

US President Donald Trump met with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Japan in June this year. Photo: Getty

WHEN TRUMP IS "ANGRY"

“I always have a plan 2”, “I’m not sure what my next move will be” - statements like these from US President Donald Trump show that predicting the next developments in the trade war between the US and China is a big challenge for anyone, even the most experienced analysts.

The US imposes an additional 5% tax on all 550 billion Chinese imports. Photo: New York Times

Just last week, when Donald Trump announced that he would reconsider the additional tariffs on Chinese imports, speculation quickly spread that the US economy was being hit by the tariffs on its rival, and that the US administration was seeing unintended consequences from its “close game” with China. This fueled the perception that the US would take steps to de-escalate tensions.

Yet just a week later, Mr. Donald Trump shocked the world when, right before leaving for France, he announced that he would increase the tax rate on 250 billion USD worth of Chinese imports from 25% to 30% starting October 1; another 300 billion USD worth of goods would also have their tax rate increased from 10% to 15%.

Mr. Donald Trump's statement was clearly in response to China's decision to impose additional tariffs on $75 billion worth of US goods, including agricultural products, crude oil, small aircraft, cars and spare parts imported from the US.

But the US President's "anger" also followed him to France when he attended the G7 Summit, where he could face opposition from leaders of the group's members about causing tension in global trade.

While public opinion is still wondering whether the G7 Summit can make calls to cool down the US-China trade war, Donald Trump has warned of using a more drastic measure that he has never mentioned before, which is that he can declare a national emergency to have greater authority in making the next steps in the trade war with China.

Donald Trump continues to send warnings to China while attending the G7 Summit in France.Photo: Getty

With this authority, he can even order American businesses to withdraw from China. He has defended his decisions by saying that the US has the “most terrible” trade relationship with China, and that he will not care about the market reaction when making decisions on raising tariffs that are seen as “fighting to the end” with China.

The US President's view was reinforced by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin when he asserted on the sidelines of the G7 Summit that China is engaging in unfair trade practices with the US, and if China agrees to establish a fair and balanced relationship, the US will sign a deal with China "within a second"!

TRUMP MAKES THE WORLD WORRIED

The ongoing US-China standoff has cast a shadow over the G7 summit in Biarritz, France, where French President Emmanuel Macron warned that trade was bad for everyone and called for cooperation “for a real recovery” for the global economy.

Mr. Donald Trump is not afraid to put pressure on leaders of G7 members. Photo: South China Morning Post

For leaders of the world’s largest economies, the anxiety expressed at the G7 is a clear representation of the world’s unease over the ongoing trade war between the United States and China. Both the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have slashed their global growth forecasts for this year to between 2.6% and 3.2%, with tariff advocates widely blamed for the slowdown.

The problem is that the “tariff advocate” Donald Trump has no intention of giving up his favorite tool, and no one can confirm that they will be on the US exemption list.

In fact, in addition to China, Donald Trump has also threatened to impose tariffs on many other allies. Right before this year's summit, he threatened France with a new tax on French wine in retaliation for France's plan to tax high-income technology companies such as Google and Facebook.

The most impressive photo at the 2018 G7 Summit in Canada.

The public has not forgotten the famous image from last year's G7 Summit in Canada, when President Donald Trump sat alone with his arms crossed across from the G7 leaders in Canada, a photo that foreign policy analysts likened to "G6+1" - stemming from major conflicts in trade issues.

With his actions and statements before and during this year’s conference, US President Donald Trump showed that he is still ready to reenact the “G6+1” image once again. However, it seems that the pressure on the US President this year is not as great as last year when Mr. Donald Trump confidently said that he did not receive criticism from leaders of other countries about the US-China trade war.

Analysts say that all countries are concerned about the US-China trade war, worried that the US tariffs on China could target their own goods. But efforts to stop President Trump over the past two years on issues of free trade or protectionism have proven to have little effect, and President Trump has shown a willingness to confront in both G7 summits he attended after being elected President.

Therefore, some countries may approach the issue in a more feasible way, which is to negotiate bilateral trade agreements with the US instead of using the name of “global trade” to put pressure on Donald Trump. The US-Japan trade agreement reached on the sidelines of the G7 Summit, and the UK-US trade agreement that is also expected to be reached after the UK leaves the EU are proof of the success of this approach.

Therefore, although the G7 and the whole world are very uneasy about the US-China trade war, resolving this war will only be a matter for those involved. According to Donald Trump's statement, China contacted the US the night he was in Biarritz, France to propose that the two sides return to the negotiating table. Once again, the whole world is anxiously waiting to see whether the US-China trade war will cool down or continue to set a new "peak" of tension.

Diep Khanh