Idlib battlefield before Putin - Erdogan meeting

According to commentator Mikhail Khodarenok, a retired colonel who served in the Russian Armed Forces General Staff, the situation in Syria's Idlib province has cooled down in the past few days, seemingly to "wait" for the results of the meeting between Turkish President Erdogan and Russian President Putin in Moscow on March 5.

Losses of Syrian Government Forces

According to Mr. Khodarenok, there are currently 5 Turkish units in Idlib, with a total of about 4,700 soldiers, 129 mortars and artillery, 15 multiple rocket launchers. The combat capabilities of Turkish forces are enhanced by electronic warfare units and multi-purpose combat and reconnaissance UAVs.

Combat UAVs have caused the most damage to Syrian Army armored vehicles in combat, and UAV airstrikes have been a greater concern to Assad’s tank units than anti-tank guns and anti-tank missile systems.

The Syrian army has suffered significant losses in the conflict, with hundreds of soldiers killed or wounded. Many tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, mortars and artillery have been badly damaged, although experts say the equipment can be repaired.

The army’s allies were also affected, with 43 members of an Iran-backed militia killed in an attack on an observation post (used by Türkiye) in Idlib. Hezbollah units also suffered losses even though they were not involved in any front-line fighting.

Turkish military aircraft have violated Syrian airspace in Idlib three times in recent days. Turkish fighters have also been involved in aerial confrontations, shooting down two Syrian bombers, two helicopters and most recently a Czech-made training aircraft.

Number of jihadists falls

The jihadists in Idlib have also suffered heavy losses. Over the past three months, their numbers have been reduced by more than half to between 12,000 and 13,000 fighters. The losses are not just due to casualties, but also because fighters have fled. This has left the rebel groups without experienced fighters and well-trained units.

The situation in Idlib appears to have calmed down. If President Assad’s army launches an operation, Turkish artillery and rockets will immediately respond and support the jihadists’ counter-offensive.

Türkiye has provided jihadist groups with modern weapons and equipment, including US-made armored personnel carriers, anti-tank missile systems and MANPADS low-altitude shoulder-fired air defense missile systems.

It is still unclear who has the necessary capabilities to operate MANPADS within the rebel groups. It is possible that Türkiye is training these groups or that Turkey itself is operating these MANPADS systems under the guise of the rebels.

Turkish side

The Syrian army has shot down 12 Turkish Anka UAVs and 7 Bayraktar UAVs in recent operations.

In the early stages of the campaign, the Syrian Army did not have any effective weapons to shoot down Turkish UAVs. All Syrian air defense capabilities were concentrated almost exclusively around the capital Damascus. Only when Pantsir-S and Buk-M2E systems were deployed to the battlefield did the situation change.

Meanwhile, militants continued to attack Russia's Hmeimim Air Base. The attacks caused no casualties and only minor damage to the facility, suggesting that the base's air defense systems were working effectively.

The rebels have now withdrawn to an area 55 km from the Hmeimim base and the rocket attacks have almost completely stopped. However, if Türkiye supplies the rebels with multiple rocket launchers, the situation could change again.

Refugee wave

There are currently around 200,000 people displaced in the Syria-Türkiye border area, with 85,000 living in refugee camps such as Hazano, Sarmada, Sheikh Hassan, Baskaria, Darkush, and Salkin.

Meanwhile, Türkiye's 2018 Operation Olive Branch in Afrin forced 250,000 people (mostly Kurds) to flee the area; the 2019 Operation Peace Spring in northern Syria also displaced 135,000 people (mostly Kurds).

Türkiye's policy of resettling ethnic Turks in formerly Kurdish territories has led to a radical change in the ethnic makeup of the regions.

Syrian army “pauses” campaign

To continue conducting operations in Idlib, the Syrian Army will have to pause for 2-3 weeks to restore combat capabilities, replenish weapons, equipment and forces.

Syrian forces need to stockpile more resources, especially ammunition. For this reason, they may not be able to liberate the territories along the M4 highway before March 5./.

Hoang Pham