Covid-19 could change the US government.

Much of the current U.S. government activity will be gradually reduced over the long term due to Covid-19. However, political activists from various fields argue that there is little reason to expect public spending, or the understanding of the proper role of government, to return to its previous state.

The Great Depression helped build a larger social safety net and a host of new government programs. World War II led to the creation of the U.S. Department of Defense, and the Cold War created the federal highway system. Just two decades ago, the 9/11 attacks helped forge new, integrated agencies to handle national security and international intelligence. The 2008 global financial crisis prompted the Federal Reserve to take a series of new actions that have since been replicated and expanded.

Currently, both the Democratic and Republican parties, along with a majority of American voters, are taking decisive and widespread action at the state and federal levels, accepting losses as the federal budget deficit is projected to reach $1 trillion annually.

President Trump, who holds more populist than traditional conservative views, enthusiastically supported this budget spending, demanding the construction of field hospitals, using his executive power to require companies to ramp up production of medical supplies, and offering an expanded definition of presidential power, including the power to eliminate regulations and bureaucracy in certain cases.

In a recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, a majority of voters in both parties indicated they support expanding the government's role in the economy to address the Covid-19 crisis.

"One lesson we can and should learn from all of this is that you can't instantly have a powerful and effective government when needed, like flipping a switch. Just as you can't disband the Department of Defense in peacetime and then reinstate it when invaded. You can't streamline the government as much as possible in normal times and expect it to be ready to respond well to an emergency," said Oren Cass, head of the American Compass, an organization that reviews conservative views on economic policy.

Despite a consensus on the government's response to the crisis, many believe things are getting out of hand, particularly at the federal level. Recently, many have protested, arguing that leaders, especially state governors, have overstepped their authority by shutting down the economy and threatening American jobs and livelihoods.

"We used to have discussions about whether we would be a capitalist or a socialist country," said Jenny Beth Martin, co-founder of Tea Party Patriots, an organization formed amid rising outrage over government bailout packages during the 2008 financial crisis.

"When you passCovid-19"We will have such a discussion, but in a new way," she said. Martin and many others believe that in recent weeks, the government has overreacted, potentially harming many Americans.

Scott Reed, a senior political strategist at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, is skeptical that the Republican Party will continue to hold the government as it does now. "The size of the government will make Washington increasingly relevant to the business community. But in the long run, I think the Republicans will scale back a bit," Reed said.

Government spending increases during crises and tends not to fall back to its previous levels, at least not for a period of time. Economists call this trend the "ratchet effect," a Keynesian theory that, once prices have risen in line with an increase in aggregate demand, they are not always reversible when that demand falls. While many still debate its extent, statistical data shows that U.S. government spending has never fallen back to pre-9/11 levels.

The ratchet effect may become more pronounced after the Covid-19 crisis, due to several issues related to crisis spending: an aging population requiring more social welfare benefits, infrastructure needing upgrades, and the cost of covering the large federal debt.

It is still too early to predict precisely how the size and structure of the U.S. government will be affected in the long term following the Covid-19 pandemic. But perhaps the most obvious impact will be a shift in public attitudes toward government agencies, which have not been very positive in recent decades.

Tom Vilsack, the former Democratic governor of Iowa and the longest-serving cabinet minister under former President Obama, said he hopes the things he's heard over the past 40 years about government—that it's not important and even problematic—will fade away.

"This exceptional situation highlights the importance of government at all levels and the need for better coordination among all ministries and departments," he said.

Conversely, the crisis also provided renewed impetus for calls for a standardized, state-run healthcare system. Senator Bernie Sanders argued that "The pandemic has highlighted the shortcomings of the current privately run healthcare system."

Many doubted that the crisis would lead to something as dramatic as Medicare for All, the progressive proposal that was heavily discussed during the Democratic primary.

"Clearly, this debate continues within the party. I don't think it will affect the views of swing voters," said Jim Messina, a Democratic strategist who worked on former President Obama's 2012 campaign.

From the Republican perspective, the response of a large government, or more accurately, a government expanding its powers and interfering in every aspect of citizens' lives, during the current crisis is in stark contrast to the views of the late President Ronald Reagan in his 1981 inaugural address.

"In this crisis, the government is not the solution to our problems, but the problems themselves," Reagan declared, against the backdrop of the shadow of the previous economic recession looming over America.

Many Republicans argue that the current economic crisis is fundamentally different because it was caused by the government's closure of businesses and public places to prevent the spread of Covid-19. This means that the government's costly and drastic actions are justified in addressing the resulting problems.

Christopher DeMuth, a fellow at the Hudson Institute in Washington with considerable influence among conservative circles in the U.S., says that by removing regulatory barriers for private companies responding to Covid-19, President Trump has effectively introduced a deregulation and conservative shift in government practices.

Sharing this view, Sara Fagen, political director for former President George W. Bush, argued that in responding to the health crisis, "the government was too slow and sluggish, but companies were more agile, leading to debates about free enterprise."

Furthermore, many Republicans were ready to embrace the $2 trillion economic rescue package, a major component of which was the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) for small businesses. Republicans viewed small businesses as a more aligned economic force with their political philosophy than large banks, the group that benefited from the 2008 bailout.

"Why are Republicans so willing to defend PPPs? It's because they benefit their constituencies, which are small businesses. Their vision of a modern society isn't one dominated by large corporations, but one that creates opportunities for small entrepreneurs to grow and succeed," shared Karl Rove, political strategist for former President Bush.

As the U.S. emerges from the Covid-19 crisis, a debate will erupt over whether government operations should be reformed at any level, state or federal.

Typically, Republicans tend to favor a federal approach, which seeks to decentralize government power to governors and states.

President Trump declared this month that, as president, he has "total authority" to decide when governors can ease social restrictions and reopen the economy. This statement contradicts traditional conservative thinking. It also differs significantly from the late President Reagan's frequent invoke of Article 10 of the U.S. Constitution, which grants powers to the states rather than the federal government.

Long before the crisis, President Trump had steered the Republican Party away from the traditional conservative views of the Reagan era and toward a more populist view of government. This populist philosophy was unafraid to use government power or money to serve the interests of working-class Americans.

Therefore, amidst the crisis, the Trump administration announced that the federal government would pay Covid-19-related medical bills for any uninsured American, while also paying healthcare providers at the Medicare rate for the elderly. This move appeared to give the green light to Medicare for All, a system favored by the Democrats.

Trump also declared his support for low-interest loans to finance a new $2 trillion bill aimed at rebuilding and improving national infrastructure. Even before the crisis, Trump had been pushing for national efforts to roll out 5G networks, a move seen as appropriate given that much of society was shifting to online learning and work.

Steve Bannon, a former close adviser to Trump, argued that voters would see a strong central government as the U.S. enters a prolonged period of confrontation with China. A prolonged period of tension would "shift the focus of government."

In the long term, the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic may depend on the speed at which the economy reopens. Voters may favor a government with greater authority at all levels, such as one that builds up good reserves to prepare for a national crisis and responds quickly and effectively when attacked.

"More authoritative and composed leaders would probably be more in vogue," said J. Ann Selzer, a non-partisan.