An uncertain future for UK-EU relations 'post-Brexit'

Negotiation and bargaining

After many warnings, the British government has finally officially confirmed its decision not to seek an extension to the transition period. In the latest statement, British Chief Cabinet Secretary Michael Gove affirmed, "The UK will not extend the post-Brexit transition period. On January 1, 2021, the UK will take over control and regain political and economic independence."

It should be recalled that under the Brexit deal, the UK left the EU's political institutions on January 31st this year but will remain in the EU's tariff-free economic zone until the end of the year - when the transition period ends. In the context of the two sides' negotiations on a post-Brexit trade agreement still being deadlocked, this transition period can be extended by 1 to 2 years but only if the UK makes a proposal. And this request for an extension must be made before July 1st.

The UK-EU relationship cannot end. Photo: AP

With the latest announcement that it will not seek an extension, it seems that the British government wants to “test” the patience of the European Union (EU) as well as hope to put pressure right before the round of negotiations with the EU scheduled to take place today - June 15. Everyone understands that both sides still disagree on a series of key issues, such as the viewpoint on fishing or the legal authority of the European Court of Justice in handling disputes related to British and European citizens...

Most importantly and most broadly, both sides have stuck to their positions and shown no signs of backing down. The EU has insisted that any deal with the UK must include London’s commitment to upholding common EU standards across a range of areas, ensuring a level playing field. The UK, however, has not accepted that, as it was clear that London had chosen to leave the EU in order to no longer be bound by EU rules and regulations.

On the other hand, the UK maintains that it negotiates with the EU just like it does with all other partners in the context of its withdrawal from Europe. However, the EU still wants to negotiate with the UK as a former member of the bloc for decades. The “mismatch” from viewpoints to specific contents has caused the past 4 rounds of negotiations between the two sides to be “completely deadlocked”!

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is determined to leave the EU. Photo: Telegraph

The future is uncertain

Amid the gloomy atmosphere of recent times, public opinion expects that today's online meeting (June 15) between the UK and EU representatives will become a push that can partly resolve the current deadlock. It is expected that the meeting will be attended by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the three highest officials of the European Union (EU), President of the European Council Charles Michel, President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen and President of the European Parliament David Sassoli. The two sides have also agreed to establish a new, denser negotiation agenda every week, instead of every 2-3 weeks as in the past.

However, the British government's announcement that it will not seek an extension of the transition period is like a "cold shower" on the efforts of both sides. This means that, by now, the two sides will have only a little over 5 months to negotiate a decisive trade agreement, which will stipulate the entire long-term strategic relationship in the future. It is understandable that the longer the transition period is, the less beneficial it is for the UK. Therefore, the UK's tough stance is considered a tactic by London to seek more favorable terms in negotiations with the EU. But on the contrary, the EU certainly will not have difficulty seeing the UK's "move" and will try to maintain the "upper hand". Although in the latest response to the UK's announcement, Vice President of the European Commission Maros Sefcovic said that he still "leaves open the possibility of extending the transition period".

There have been many protests wanting Britain to stay in the European Union. Photo: DW

In the event that the two sides do not reach an agreement, trade, legal and citizen issues between the two sides will be seriously disrupted. The UK may also refuse to fulfill its financial obligations to the European Union (EU), while both sides will suffer serious economic damage. At the same time, trade relations between the two sides will have to comply with the regulations of the World Trade Organization (WTO), which clearly reduces the benefits for both sides compared to reaching a bilateral trade agreement. This will clearly not benefit both sides, which are struggling with the crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. Most recently, the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that the output of the UK economy in April fell by 20.4% compared to the previous month - the highest level since this index was tracked in 1997.

Everyone can see the immediate damage, but so far, no one wants to be the first to propose any concessions and to what extent. This means that the scenario of no agreement between the UK and the EU, although unlikely, will depend largely on the attitudes and calculations of both sides. According to observers, it may not be possible to immediately reach an overall agreement in today's meeting (June 15), but the two sides will try to find common ground on a number of issues, from which to come up with smaller packages of agreements in the following negotiations. This will probably be an acceptable scenario for both the UK and the EU during this difficult period!

Phuong Hoa