The world last week: Tension prevails

Wall Street panics

Investors on Wall Street, the world’s most vibrant stock market, are worried about the outcome of the US presidential election in November, which will cause the market to fluctuate. The debate between candidates Donald Trump and Joe Biden did not ease those concerns, but instead made everything extremely cautious and full of confusion.

At the close of trading on September 29 - before the debate - US stocks recorded a slight decline. During the debate, futures showed signs of a slight increase at first, but then quickly lost this gain when the debate ended, and tended to decrease by about 0.5%.

Wall Street in turmoil after debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Photo illustration: AFP

The election outcome is not Wall Street’s biggest concern. Instead, investors are particularly concerned about Trump’s refusal to commit to accepting the results if he does not win. And even if a winner is determined, the transition of power will not be smooth, which could lead to a long period of litigation after the vote.

Infirst debateTrump has repeated his warnings about increased fraud related to mail-in voting and said he would not endorse the results in certain cases. “If I see tens of thousands of voters’ ballots being manipulated, I can’t stand by and watch that happen,” Trump’s statement sent traders rushing to stock up in case the market turns against the election.

“Market participants are concerned that Trump will not leave peacefully if he loses the election, bringing immediate political risk.”

Axi Market Analyst Milan Cutkovic

Futures contracts, a key gauge of stock market volatility, are getting more expensive as investors prepare for a difficult October, November and December. Investors have a premium tied to the U.S. election, and it’s just a matter of knowing when to add that premium: on election day, a week later, a month later. Traders aren’t sure. So they’ve added premiums on all those days, said Jordan Rochester, a currency strategist at Nomura.

President Donald Trump repeatedly attacked his opponent Joe Biden during the first debate between the two US presidential candidates. Photo: Bloomberg

“The fear is that if we have a disrupted election, which leads to disruption of the economy and even violence, then the market will be very affected.”

Brad McMillan, Chief Investment Officer, Commonwealth Financial Network

Many opinions mostly predict that everything will not end on November 3 and the market does not expect much from that. And fears of instability are increasingly present, when after only 1 day of the fight, President Trump declared that hepositive for Covid-19and is now in quarantine. Soon after, US stock market futures plunged. However, investors can also be reassured by the fact that the British Prime Minister and the Brazilian President have both recovered from nCov 2 infection.

It is important that the President continue to communicate with the American public. Seeing the President in front of the cameras can reassure the people and stabilize the stock market.

Breaking the deadlock, EU sanctions Belarus

EU leaders have broken a long-standing deadlock to impose sanctions onBelarus, when agreeing to resolve a series of issues related to Türkiye, to the post-pandemic recovery budget.

European leaders have gathered in Brussels, Belgium to tackle the bloc's burning issues. Photo: Europa

The delay in sanctioning Belarus over its election results has been a major impasse for the bloc, forcing bloc leaders to finally resolve the issue.

The sanctions have run into resistance from the Republic of Cyprus, which has demanded measures.against Türkiyefirst in a dispute over natural gas drilling in the waters of Cyprus and Greece.

After eight hours of talks, the leaders agreed to urge Türkiye to engage in serious talks with Cyprus and Greece, and warned that sanctions could be imposed on Turkey if Turkey’s “provocations and pressure” in the eastern Mediterranean continued. However, Brussels still hopes to create a “positive agenda” with Ankara and will review the relationship in December. With Turkey now in talks with Greece, following mediation efforts by Germany and NATO, many EU leaders are reluctant to further complicate Ankara’s situation with sanctions. Turkey, in particular, plays a key role in coordinating the EU’s migration and refugee flows.

Most importantly, the tough message to Türkiye opened the way for Cyprus to lift its veto and allow the bloc to impose sanctions over the political crisis in Belarus. The 40 members of the governmentPresident Alexander Lukashenkotravel bans and asset freezes in the EU. Although Lukashenko is not on the list, the EU will continue to monitor the situation. European Council President Charles Michel said the EU supports a comprehensive dialogue on Belarus, and supports the mechanism of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), which can play an important role in finding a more constructive solution.

EU sanctions against Belarus have been met with resistance from the Republic of Cyprus. In the photo: Protesters in Minsk, Belarus. Photo: TASS

Not only with Belarus, the EU has also put 2 Russian citizens and 4 companies on the sanctions blacklist due to their involvement in the construction of a railway bridge connecting Russia with Belarus.Crimean Peninsulaacross the Kerch Strait - Europe's longest railway bridge, inaugurated in December 2019. Accordingly, all individuals and organizations subject to the ban will have their assets frozen in European banks and will be banned from transactions with European businesses.

In addition, the EU Summit focused on the issue of dealing with the pandemic, especially the 750 billion euro post-pandemic economic recovery fund, and how the EU's 1.1 trillion euro budget will be used over the next several years. Many opinions are concerned that if there is a delay in reaching an agreement, it will inevitably lead to a European economic recession.

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