US Presidential Election: 'Even the Best Polls Can Be Wrong'

Trump “lowers his voice”

Observer David Siders commented on Politico that if President Trump had argued the way he did in the debate on the evening of October 22 (US time) three weeks ago, he might have been in a better position now. The US leader's defense of his ability to deal with the Covid-19 epidemic is considered to have solid arguments and convincing arguments. The US leader is also trusted to maintain a strong stock market.

US President Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Joe Biden. Photo: AP

President Trump did two important things for himself on October 22. First, he built a solid defense of his ability to deal with the Covid-19 pandemic. Second, he did what his advisers told him to do: "tone down" and debate more restrainedly.

Meanwhile, Democratic candidate Joe Biden, whom Mr Trump and his supporters call "Sleepy Joe", appeared to have "woke up", as the former US Vice President passionately made arguments against the current President's policies on issues such as immigration and the ability to deal with the Covid-19 crisis.

"This was clearly a better debate than the last one," said J. Miles Coleman, an election analyst at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics. "Trump was more focused on getting the message across and not arguing with the moderator."

Previously, in the first debate on September 29, Mr. Trump repeatedly interrupted Mr. Biden. According to the Washington Post, Mr. Trump interrupted Mr. Biden and the moderator 71 times while Mr. Biden interrupted 22 times in that debate.

Will Trump's last-minute effort help him turn the tide?

However, will this change help Mr. Trump win when there are less than 2 weeks left before the US Presidential election, the number of undecided voters is very small and more than 47 million voters have already cast their ballots early?

Before the debate on October 22 (US time) took place, there was a general consensus in the political world that both candidates and the moderator needed to avoid a disaster. The result was clear: there was no disaster. There were no repeated interruptions or strong attacks like the first debate. However, after this debate, there was no significant change in the correlation between the two candidates.

After the final presidential debate, according to a CNN snap poll, 53% of voters said Biden was the winner while only 39% of voters said Trump performed better.

If the polls are somewhat accurate, for Mr. Biden, this is of course a victory, but for Mr. Trump, it is clear that the US leader needs to make more efforts.

However, even if he continues to fall behind, Mr. Trump’s chances of winning cannot be underestimated. Fox News reported that Mr. Biden’s campaign sent a message to voters on October 17 warning that President Trump could still win and that the race was getting tighter in battleground states like Arizona and North Carolina.

Biden campaign manager Jen O'Malley Dillon warned supporters against complacency, pointing to uncertain polling and lessons learned from Trump's surprise 2016 victory.

"The reality is that this race is tighter than some of the predictions we see on Twitter or television," Dillon said, adding that polls showing Mr. Biden ahead may be inaccurate.

"Even the best polls can be wrong, for example with variables like voter turnout in key swing states, where we're basically tied right now."

Biden's campaign manager also said: "If we learned anything from 2016, it's that we cannot underestimate Donald Trump and his ability to come back on track in the final days of the campaign."

According to many analysts, President Trump still has a narrow path to victory if he takes advantage of the most effective tactics as in 2016 and makes fundamental changes in his campaign style to expand his appeal beyond his core voter base.

Republicans have shown success in turning out new voters in states like Florida and Pennsylvania, which were key to Mr Trump’s 2016 victory, by winning over working-class white Americans who had never voted before.

“There are a few days left to change the outcome of the race. Mr. Trump’s best chance at this point is to motivate white non-college voters in the industrial states of the Midwest to vote.”

Even the most optimistic members of the Democratic Party say this is a concern.

"This time, the Republicans are focused on increasing their electoral votes. The Republicans are running a better campaign on the ground than any campaign we've seen since 2004," said Donna Brazile, campaign manager for President Al Gore in 2000.

In addition, it is not just white working-class voters who are losing ground, but polls show that Mr. Trump is doing better or better than he did in 2016 in attracting support from African-American and Latino voters in several states.

It is clear that it is no coincidence that President Trump changed his attitude in the final presidential debate. The US leader clearly understands that to defeat Mr. Biden, he needs to make more efforts because Mr. Biden is simply not Mrs. Hillary Clinton and America is very different from 4 years ago.

If he wants to win, the US leader not only needs the support of his existing loyal voters but also needs to attract as many new voters as possible, even though time is running out for him to do so./.

vov.vn