NATO in a dilemma
(Baonghean.vn) - On December 1 and 2, the Foreign Ministers of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member countries met in an online conference to discuss key issues. The agenda, in addition to the content on NATO's continued coordination, Russia's military buildup, the rise of China, etc., also focused on the training mission in Afghanistan, where the 70-year-old alliance is hesitating between staying or leaving.
In a difficult situation
Ahead of the important NATO summit, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg held an online press conference with major news agencies from many countries earlier this week. Obviously, one of the issues that was focused on was NATO's training mission in Afghanistan.
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| NATO chief's online press conference. Photo: NATO |
It should be recalled that the North Atlantic Treaty Organizationofficially involved in Afghanistanwith the aim of supporting the United States after the 9/11 terrorist attacks and ensuring that the South Asian country will never again become a launching pad for international terrorists to attack the territories of member countries of the NATO military alliance. After nearly 2 decades, with many fluctuations and ups and downs, now is the moment that Mr. Stoltenberg assessed as a "historic opportunity for peace", although fragile but must be grasped for the country that has had tosuffer much painThis.
During the years of its involvement in the Afghan peace process, NATO has repeatedly adjusted the size of its military presence there. Just a few years ago, during a major combat operation, the number was more than 100,000 troops. Since then, NATO has gradually reduced its forces and now, according to the head of the alliance, there are only approximately 11,000 troops participating in the Train, Assist and Advise mission.
Notably, nearly half of these are American military personnel, the rest are from NATO's European allies and partner countries. Not to mention that the NATO alliance is heavily dependent on the US armed forces for air support, transportation and logistics. In such a context, the decision of the Donald Trump administration to withdraw about half of the US troops from Afghanistan by mid-January 2021 will more or less cause difficulties for NATO, and without help from the United States, European allies will surely have to struggle, even with the scenario of leaving the South Asian country.
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| NATO foreign ministers attended an online conference on December 1 and 2 to discuss many important issues. Photo: NATO |
In front of the press, Mr. Stoltenberg himself admitted that the main problem now is according to the original.US-Taliban agreement, mentioned that all international troops, including NATO troops, need to completely withdraw from Afghanistan by May 1, 2021. He pointed out that this is the reason why NATO is now facing a very clear decision, a very difficult choice, which is no different from a "dilemma" for all members.
Under the US-Taliban peace deal, which does not involve other NATO allies or the Afghan government, all foreign troops must leave Afghanistan by May 1, if security conditions on the ground allow. Mr. Trump unilaterally decided to exclude only 2,500 US troops from the NATO mission.
Specifically, if we continue to stay on Afghan territory - this is not without basis - when NATO assesses that the Taliban has not fulfilled the commitments as established in the agreement, has not fulfilled the promises. But of course, staying also means that the war continues, the fighting has not stopped, NATO must continue.military intervention in Afghanistanin the long term. What about leaving? If it chooses this option, NATO risks losing the gains it has made in the fight against international terrorism, and may even leave Afghanistan as a place for terrorists to re-emerge.
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| The US plans to reduce its military presence, leaving only 2,500 soldiers in Afghanistan. Photo: Reuters |
"Whatever we do, whatever the final conclusion is, we need to maintain coordination and we need to act in an orderly manner."
Coming up with a viable solution at this point in time is probably very difficult for NATO. So it is no surprise that the conference that ended on December 2 did not provide a concrete answer. In fact, it is expected that a final solution on the Afghanistan issue will be presented at the NATO defense ministers’ meeting scheduled for February next year. Therefore, in the recent press conference, the Secretary General only wanted to emphasize the common spirit of the alliance: “Whatever we do, whatever the final conclusion is, we still need to maintain coordination and need to act in an orderly manner.”
New officials, new policies?
Under President Donald Trump, the United States signed a peace deal with the Taliban without the participation of other NATO allies or the Afghan government. The White House chief also unilaterally decided to leave only 2,500 US troops in the joint NATO mission, despite complaints from allied military planners as they tried to figure out whether NATO could continue to operate in Kabul and other major Afghan cities.
Not only that, the rapid withdrawal of US troops has also made local officials worry that it will inadvertently strengthen the Taliban's negotiating position. Therefore, perhaps the intention of NATO defense ministers to make a final decision on the future of the mission to support Afghanistan in February 2021 is intentional. That is when the candidate who is determined to be the winner of the recent US presidential election, Joe Biden, officially takes office.
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| NATO Secretary General and Mr. Joe Biden - when he was US Vice President during a meeting in 2016. Photo: NATO |
European diplomats expect that, under Mr. Biden,American attitudewill change, although the new administration is likely to maintain its stance of leaving Afghanistan as soon as possible. Or at least, they are implicitly assuming that the allies will not make any major decisions in the final days of the current administration of the flag. And in fact, a senior NATO official confirmed this week that he has invited Joe Biden to a summit early next year: “I look forward to welcoming President Biden next year to the NATO summit in Brussels, because that is the best way for the heads of state and government of the allies to meet and sit down together.”
Mr. Stoltenberg also had many good words for the seasoned politician with a lot of experience in security issues in general and NATO in particular: "I know Joe Biden is a person who is very committed to supporting cooperation, the bond between North America and Europe and the solidarity within NATO."
“No one wants to stay in Afghanistan any longer than necessary. In the coming months, we will continue to assess our presence based on conditions on the ground.”
Whether the US-NATO relationship, and the 30-member coalition’s mission in Afghanistan, will “reverse” in a more positive direction remains an open question, but one thing is certain: violence on the ground in Afghanistan has not ended. In fact, it has increased sharply in 2020, with many Taliban attacks on local government security forces since the start of peace talks in September. In addition, the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS) has also caused many shocking incidents, such as the attack on Kabul University that killed 22 people, most of them students, this month.
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| NATO soldiers in Afghanistan. Photo: NATO |
The level of violence remains high, meaning that the Afghan people and army are still facing danger and paying a heavy price in terms of both property and lives. But in the end, the US-Taliban peace agreement is still a golden opportunity for NATO to seize, open the door to dialogue and gradually resolve the difficult and unpredictable situation both militarily and politically in this region.