More than half of Japan's Self-Defense Forces will conduct exercises to prepare to defend Senkaku and Okinawa.

Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force.

These exercises are expected to involve 140,000 participants, equivalent to 56.6% of the total number of Japan's Self-Defense Forces. That allows us to think that the exercise program goes far beyond the framework of protecting the Senkaku Islands.

The Senkaku Islands are not large, eight islands with a total area of ​​only 7 square kilometers. In fact, they are cliffs jutting out into the sea. Therefore, it is impossible for large ground forces to land there, at most two or three battalions of 300 men each. The possible clash because the Senkakus will be tied to the battle of fleets and aircraft. First of all, aviation, because whoever has superior aircraft above will be able to hold these islands.

With a base of 140,000 people, the exercises are expected to involve the majority of the Japanese Air Force and Navy, as well as about 80-100 thousand infantry. This number could be at least 5 divisions (from 10 Japanese infantry divisions) and no less than 15 brigades (out of the existing 17 brigades).

It is therefore possible to hypothesize that the exercise plan, which is secret and of which only a small part has been revealed to the public, is also related to the defense of Okinawa and not just the Senkakus.

The presence of Japan and China in the Senkaku Islands.

First, from the perspective of the General Staff of the People’s Liberation Army, the Senkakus are a secondary and intermediate target. The strategic situation in the East China Sea would change completely if the PLA could take Okinawa. At that time, the Chinese Navy and Air Force would have a free hand to operate freely around Taiwan, because the loss of the Okinawa air base would push the operating range of US and Japanese aircraft far to the North.

Second, if we look at the situation from the Japanese perspective, a strong defense of Okinawa requires a large army. In the Battle of Okinawa in 1945, the US had 138,000 soldiers and the Japanese had 130,000. And in the current situation, a force of about 100,000 men, fully equipped with weapons and military equipment, is needed.

Creating such a force, moving it to Okinawa, deploying it, conducting combat operations, and delivering supplies would pose numerous tasks, requiring coordinated training and maneuvers.

The planned exercises of the Japan Self-Defense Forces will certainly include personnel training, experiments and exercises. Of course, the exact details of the exercises are not yet known and will only be known in the decades to come. However, it can be assumed that the program of exercises will include: transporting tanks and armored vehicles by sea, seaplane operations, landings to seize enemy-held beaches and deep attacks on strongholds, coastal defenses and key positions.

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