Dual crisis leaves Myanmar submerged in Covid-19 'tsunami'

When Tropical Cyclone Nargis hit Myanmar's densely populated Irrawaddy Delta in May 2008, nearly 140,000 people died. It was the worst natural disaster in Myanmar's recorded history. Now the country is facing an even more devastating disaster as a wave ofCovid-193rd attack many Southeast Asian countries.

An oxygen tank collection point in Myanmar. Photo: Getty.

At risk of becoming the world's new epidemic center

This new wave of Covid-19 has come at a time when many public hospitals inMyanmarhas been closed for the past 6 months. Speaking at the Asia News Network online conference, Mr. Kobsak Chutikul - former Thai Ambassador, who closely follows developments in Myanmar said: "There is a high possibility that Myanmar will become the new Covid-19 epidemic center of the world and that is dangerous for everyone. We are now behind the epidemic curve, so we need to act immediately." This warning raised concerns about a "Covid-19 tsunami" that could engulf the entire Southeast Asian region.

Currently, many hospitals in Myanmar are empty of both doctors and patients due to a prolonged strike to protest the military government following the coup in February 2021. Unable to access medical services, many patients have breathed their last while quarantined at home.

Health experts say the potential death toll from the political unrest could reach into the tens of thousands. Official figures put the death toll from the unrest at around 950 since February.

Meanwhile, some Myanmar media reported that the number of deaths in Yangon alone - Myanmar's largest city - has exceeded 2,000 people per day in recent weeks.

At an informal meeting of the United Nations Security Council on July 28, British Ambassador to the United Nations Barbara Woodward said: “The coup in Myanmar has completely collapsed the health system, many health workers have been arrested. In fact, the Covid-19 virus is spreading very quickly among the population. It is estimated that in the next 2 weeks, half of Myanmar's population could be infected.”

If this scenario plays out, an estimated 80,000 people in Myanmar could die in the coming weeks.

“The worst is yet to come in the third wave of Covid-19 in Myanmar,” Zin Mar Aung, who was appointed foreign minister in Myanmar’s newly formed National Unity Government (NUG), told ANN. “The infection has not peaked and there are still about two to three weeks before the country records its highest number of cases.”

137 doctors, including the head of Myanmar’s vaccination program, have been arrested. Health workers on duty say the Covid-19 infection rate in Myanmar is higher than anywhere else. Of the 15,000 tests conducted each day, about 37% are positive.

“Compared to previous waves, there have been more deaths in the third wave,” a doctor told Nikkei Asia. “We still cannot assess exactly whether the cause of the worsening of the epidemic and the increased mortality rate is due to the SARS-CoV-2 virus variant or due to shortcomings in disease management and control. But based on the current situation, more new variants will appear now or in the near future.”

Coffins containing the bodies of Covid-19 patients at Yay Way cemetery near Yangon International Airport. Photo: Getty.

Crematoriums must increase operating capacity

Testing is needed to determine whether Myanmar is becoming a hotbed for new SARS-CoV-2 variants, like the dangerous ones first discovered in India, Brazil and South Africa. Currently, there are only two facilities in Myanmar capable of conducting initial genome analysis of the virus: one in Yangon, run by the Ministry of Health and Sports, and another located on a military base.

“Analyzing and identifying the new variant is difficult without international cooperation, as it requires comparing differences with variants in other countries,” a Yangon-based medical expert told Nikkei. Myanmar’s neighbor Thailand is well-equipped to do this.

Analysts say the military government may have been caught off guard by the severity of the crisis. On August 1, six months after taking power, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, the head of the military government, said: “The truth about the epidemic is being distorted in the media and on social media.”

He blamed the protests for the outbreak: “The nationwide protests and mass gatherings after February 1 have caused a wave of infections with new variants.” Earlier on July 27, Myanmar authorities announced that 10 new crematoriums in Yangon had increased their capacity to process 3,000 bodies a day.

“I have seen more deaths in the past four weeks than at any time in my 37 years in the health sector,” said Frank Smithuis, a Dutch doctor with Medical Action Myanmar, one of the few organizations that runs treatment centers for critically ill patients.

Frank Smithuis, a professor at Oxford University, said that there are many reasons other than the collapse of the health system that make the Covid-19 pandemic in Myanmar worse. First, Myanmar is very vulnerable to the attack of Covid-19. Next, the people have little resistance to the disease because the number of cases in the first two waves was relatively small. Third, the vaccination rate is low.

According to this expert, like Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam, Myanmar has controlled the epidemic very well in the early stages. “The first two waves in Myanmar were very small, unlike in Europe. The original SARS-CoV-2 virus strain was not as contagious as the new variants, so the number of cases was relatively limited. It was the Delta variant that caused the explosion of cases. India has an advantage in that after experiencing a relatively large second wave, the proportion of the population that has developed immunity has increased. Moreover, they also have a higher vaccination rate. While in Myanmar, the vast majority of people were less infected in the previous waves of the epidemic.”

Another problem is that the health system has been affected by recent political turmoil. “People are blaming each other. That is of course very bad for the treatment of patients.”

An epidemiologist in Yangon said that half of the population in the worst-hit areas of Myanmar may have been infected. These areas include parts of Yangon and Chin state, which borders India, where the Delta variant originated. Myanmar is now operating at about 40% of its medical capacity, mainly in military facilities, private clinics and emergency centers, according to estimates.

The vaccination program initiated by the civilian government led by Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy party in 2020 was quickly ended. Moreover, many people, skeptical about the effectiveness of the vaccine, refused to be vaccinated even though it was available.

Political instability makes it difficult for Myanmar to find a way out of the Covid-19 crisis

Concerns beyond the ASEAN region

The threat of Covid-19 in Myanmar has extended beyond ASEAN. Located between India and China, the country borders regions that account for 38% of the world’s population, including Bangladesh. Bangladesh is 13.5 times more densely populated than Myanmar, and is under a lockdown until August 10. The number of daily cases continues to rise sharply, reaching more than 16,000.

China is also ramping up vaccine deliveries to border areas in its Yunnan province. “The Yunnan government has been told that fighting Covid-19 is their biggest priority for the next six months,” Emma Leslie, executive director of the Center for Peace and Conflict Studies, told ANN. China has confirmed 483 cases of the Delta variant as of July 21 in 15 of its 31 provinces and autonomous regions, the New York Times reported.

“We are facing a huge humanitarian crisis. It is important to have a practical, coordinated approach to this. We have had many calls from people in Myanmar calling to say goodbye,” said Emma Leslie.

“ASEAN cannot find a solution to the political and health crisis in Myanmar alone. This requires global health and medical cooperation. The United Nations has a presence in Myanmar and the infrastructure is in place, from which vaccines can be distributed,” Ms. Emma Leslie emphasized./.

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