The US believes the Russia-Ukraine conflict will temporarily cease this winter.
The ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine could last at least six months, senior U.S. officials say.
The U.S. believes that Russian military activity in Ukraine will significantly decrease in intensity this coming winter. According to the New York Times, senior officials in the Biden administration assess that progress on both sides will temporarily halt.
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Ukrainian tanks in Donbass. Photo: Ukrainian Ministry of Defense |
Unnamed officials estimated that the "weather-related pause" in the conflict could last up to six months.
Low temperatures and icy ground would make it easier for tanks and trucks to move, but according to the New York Times, heavy snowfall and frigid weather would still complicate a Russian offensive. Instead, Moscow would likely focus on sustained attacks on Ukrainian military bases, infrastructure, and power grids.
Senior U.S. officials also believe that the U.S. and its allies need to use this deliberate winter pause to rebuild Ukraine's defensive and offensive weapons stockpiles.
“Ukraine appears likely to continue its attacks on Russian front lines. This could involve targeted assassinations or coordinated sabotage targeting areas controlled by Russia,” said Seth G. Jones, senior vice president at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Meanwhile, Ukraine has ruled out the possibility of suspending military operations during the winter.
Alexey Danilov, head of Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council, declared on November 12: "We cannot freeze anything – we are not a refrigerator. We can liberate our territories regardless of the weather, regardless of the season."
Russia has not yet made specific statements about what its military will do during the winter months. However, Russian officials have repeatedly stated that Moscow will achieve all the objectives of its military operation in Ukraine.