What can Western tanks do on the battlefield in Ukraine?

The United States and Germany announced on January 25 that they would provide main battle tanks to Ukraine after weeks of debate on the issue.

Thirty-one US M1 Abrams tanks are likely to be delivered to Ukraine this fall, while German-made Leopard 2 tanks could be delivered in the next few months, when Western experts predict Russia will launch a new offensive.

The Leopard 2 is the most popular main battle tank in Europe, while the M1 Abrams is a much-praised weapon. The two tanks are expected to offer significantly more firepower than the Soviet-era tanks currently used by Ukraine.

Henk Goemans, director of the Center for Conflict and Cooperation Studies at the University of Rochester in New York, USA, said that the M1 Abrams and Leopard 2 "will be very important for Ukrainian forces in the current phase of the war, when the situation on the Eastern battlefield is at a stalemate".

US M1 Abrams tanks at the Grafenwoehr training ground in Germany in December 2020. Photo:US Army

“Ukraine is at a numerical disadvantage,” Mr. Goemans assessed. “Russia has more troops, more equipment, but Western tanks would make a big difference.”

Germany produced its first Leopard 2 in 1979, and it is the country's third-generation main battle tank, replacing the first-generation Leopard. The Leopard 2 tank currently has four variants: A4, A5, A6, and A7.

Ukraine is expected to receive the A6 variant, a tank model that is in service with the armies of about 18 countries, with 2,000 units produced over the years.

The Leopard 2 tank has a crew of four, weighs 62 tons, can reach a maximum speed of 70 km/h, is equipped with a 120 mm gun and a 7.62 mm gun.

In addition, Ukraine will receive the M1A2 Abrams variant, a tank with specifications similar to the Leopard 2. However, the American tank is powered by a gas turbine engine and often uses jet fuel, while the Leopard 2 uses a diesel engine.

European countries are planning to donate Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. Kiev could receive 88 Leopard 2s, equivalent to two battalions, in the next few months. It is not yet clear when Ukraine will receive the M1 Abrams tanks.

Western tanks will arrive in Ukraine at a crucial time, as Kiev prepares to counter a potential new Russian offensive and plans a further counter-offensive.

Western experts believe that Leopard 2 and M1 Abrams tanks will effectively support the Ukrainian army in the fierce fighting in the Donbass region, where bloody battles are taking place, as well as in the southeastern region of Zaporizhzhia province.

John Herbst, director of Eurasia at the Atlantic Council, a Washington-based think tank, said Western tanks would help Ukraine defend its frontline against Russia’s constant attacks with overwhelming numbers. The thick armor and powerful firepower of these two tanks would also help Ukraine reduce casualties on the battlefield.

German Leopard 2 tanks fire at the Grafenwoehr training ground in June 2018. Photo:US Army

“They would be invaluable if Russia launched a major offensive from Belarus or other areas this year, which Ukrainian intelligence agencies have predicted,” Herbst said.

"If tanks arrive in Ukraine in the next few months, they could be deployed by Ukraine for a new counteroffensive on flat terrain in the East and South," the expert said.

Western experts also believe that M1 Abrams and Leopard 2 tanks could help Ukraine launch a campaign to regain control of Crimea, the peninsula annexed by Russia in 2014.

Ukraine has repeatedly asked the West for heavy tanks for months, but Germany has been reluctant to respond, fearing an escalation of tensions with Russia and trying to convince the United States and other NATO allies to do the same.

The tank debate became more heated after Britain announced it was transferring several Challenger 2 main battle tanks to Ukraine, putting pressure on Germany and the United States to follow suit.

At that time, Germany declared that it "would not go alone" in providing Leopard 2 tanks, while the US announced that it would not transfer M1 Abrams to Ukraine because of concerns about the difficulty of maintaining them on the battlefield.

However, the US and Germany changed their stance last week and decided to send tanks to Ukraine, marking a new turning point on the battlefield. "This decision was made based on the efforts and commitments of many countries to help Ukraine protect its sovereignty," US President Joe Biden announced. "We will not allow any country to use force to take the territory of another country."

Nguyen Tien