Ukraine's most pressing problem in conflict with Russia

Victory is not yet defined

On February 24, 2023, exactly one year since the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out, Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Joe Biden both affirmed that they would continue to fight. President Putin said that Russia was prepared for a long war, conducted "step by step" while President Biden affirmed that "we will not tire" in supporting Ukraine. On the same day, at a press conference in Kiev, President Volodymyr Zelensky declared that Ukraine would "certainly" win.

Ukraine fires howitzers in Donbass. Photo: New York Times

However, no leader has clarified what an achievable victory would look like.

“President Putin has committed as if he is going to win big. Ukraine has committed as if they are going to defeat Russia, even if it comes at a high cost,” said Eugene Rumer, a former US intelligence official and director of the Russia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.

But as observers Anton Troianovski, Steven Erlanger and Marc Santora wrote in the New York Times, it is much easier to insist on fighting than to muster the resources and support to do so. Ukraine, with a population less than a third of Russia’s and an economy ravaged by conflict, is increasingly dependent on Western support. For its part, Russia, faced with harsh Western sanctions on many fronts, has increasingly sought closer economic ties and cooperation with outside partners, especially China.

So far, Russia’s winter offensive has made some progress. Moscow has taken control of several villages near Bakhmut, a key transport hub supplying Ukrainian forces in the Donbass. Fighting has been fierce between the two sides for control of the city in recent months.

Ukraine is planning a spring offensive but its weapons and ammunition are running low. According to Anton Gerashchenko, an adviser to the Ukrainian Interior Minister, Ukraine is "waiting for equipment support from the West to start a counterattack." Recently, on February 24, President Zelensky revealed that Kiev is preparing an offensive to retake the Crimean Peninsula.

Ukraine's urgent task

President Zelensky faces the daunting task of maintaining military morale and securing Western support. For all their challenges, the latter is perhaps the most pressing issue facing Ukraine. To maintain Western support through the winter, when economic uncertainty threatens to shatter the will of European unity, leaders in Kiev and President Biden know they must act.

Behind the scenes at the Munich Security Conference last weekend, Western officials and analysts privately expressed less optimism about Ukraine’s ability to fully achieve its stated goal of victory. They also expressed concern about the length of the fighting, the stability of arms supplies and the political cost of rising inflation and more expensive energy and food.

US and European leaders have repeatedly stated publicly that it is up to Ukraine to define the conflict’s objectives and when it is ready to negotiate an end to the fighting. But some analysts say the risk of Russian escalation and the impact on the global economy means it is in the US’s interest to push Ukraine toward more realistic goals and eventually sit down at the negotiating table with Russia.

“It is time for the United States and its allies to intervene directly in shaping Ukraine’s strategic goals, resolving the conflict, and ending it diplomatically,” said Charles A. Kupchan, a former Obama administration official now at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Senior US and European officials understand that they have their own interests, and those interests may not coincide with Kiev’s. That is why while NATO countries provide weapons and training to Ukraine, they do not fight alongside it.

The US is also cautious about providing weapons to Kiev to ensure NATO does not get dragged into a larger war with Russia.

“The problem here is that the United States is giving Ukraine tools that are enough to push back Russian forces but not enough to win,” said Angela E. Stent, a scholar of Russian studies at Georgetown University.

For Ukrainian officials, balancing military strategy and diplomatic reality is a challenging task. Ukrainian officials say they do not think Russia can maintain its forces and weapons at the current rate of attrition, and expect Moscow to try to find a way to halt the conflict by increasing international pressure for a ceasefire. The Kremlin’s greatest success, they say, will be convincing the West that Kiev cannot prevail.

Negotiation conditions of Russia and Ukraine

Ukraine fears that the longer Russia controls its territories, the more difficult it will be economically and psychologically for Kiev as it tries to replenish its arsenal. Ukraine is now pressing the West to provide more powerful weapons such as tanks, long-range precision missiles, armored fighting vehicles and fighter jets.

US President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kiev on February 20. Photo: New York Times

President Biden's surprise visit to Kiev and pledge of an additional $2 billion in military assistance to Ukraine signaled continued US support for Ukraine as Kiev plans to counterattack in the coming months.

“The timing of weapons deliveries from our partners” is a major concern, said Oleksiy Danilov, head of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council.

"The longer this is delayed, the more people we lose."

In a recent interview, Mr. Danilov said that comparisons are appearing in the media about the situation in Ukraine with the Korean Peninsula, according to which the "38th parallel" solution dividing North and South Korea could be applied to Ukraine. However, Mr. Danilov rejected the possibility of negotiations according to Russia's program.

At a press conference on February 24, President Zelensky also rejected the idea of ​​resolving the conflict by maintaining the current situation. According to him, only after Russia stops its attacks and "respects the rights of Ukrainians living on Ukrainian soil" will "we talk about the form we can use to end this conflict."

Meanwhile, Russian Ambassador to the United Nations Vassily Nebenzia affirmed that Russia is only ready to discuss a peaceful solution when it achieves all the declared goals of its military campaign in Ukraine.

"Russia is ready for negotiations based on peaceful recognition of the goals of the special military operation and will not consider any other scenarios," Nebenzia said.

Moscow has listed conditions for a diplomatic solution to end the conflict, including the West ending "arms and mercenary support" for Kiev, and Ukraine returning to neutrality after being "demilitarized" and "defascized"./.

Kieu Anh