Does President Putin have plans to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict soon?

Switch from “fast” to “sure”

Russian President Putin launched a “special military operation” in Ukraine in February 2022. Initially, Russia intended to “fight quickly and win quickly”, directly attacking the Ukrainian capital Kiev, with the goal of achieving a quick victory like when Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. However, Russia later had to change its approach, switching to “fighting steadily and advancing steadily”, focusing on the Eastern front. To date, this armed conflict has lasted for one year and two months, with many losses of life and property on both sides.

Russian President Putin. Photo: Sputnik

On the Ukrainian side, they launched two major offensives in 2022, even taking back about 40% of the area that Russia had previously won since the beginning of the “special military operation”. Ukraine is expected to launch another offensive this year (2023).

So, Russia has only achieved certain victories after a long time. And Russia is mobilizing a large amount of resources for this conflict. The Russian defense industry has been put into wartime mode.

It is difficult to say with certainty when the military conflict in Ukraine will end.

Russia's plan to break the stalemate and end the conflict soon

Observers now predict that Russian President Putin is looking for new ways to break the world'sstrategic tug of waron the battlefield and end armed conflict.

One of the methods that President Putin and his team have used is to warn of the threat of nuclear war. This deterrent measure could deter Ukraine’s Western allies and thus end Western aid and support to Ukraine. However, it is believed that Mr Putin is unlikely to risk using nuclear weapons in a limited armed conflict.

The second method Putin has used is to seek cooperation and support from China. If China were to openly side with Russia in this conflict, President Putin would have a better chance of winning a decisive victory on the battlefield. However, China currently relies heavily on trade with the West, so it is very cautious about openly confronting the West.

The third method that President Putin could use is to declare victory based on the current status quo that Russia has on the battlefield, calling on the parties to accept the line of control on the ground between the Russian and Ukrainian armies. Russia could then declare the conflict over, its objectives achieved. Russia would then propose a partial withdrawal of its military forces from Ukraine in exchange for Ukraine recognizing the areas that Russia has captured in eastern and southern Ukraine.

With this third method, Russia will need to pay attention to Ukrainian public opinion. Currently, there is still a significant number of Ukrainians who choose to continue the war. Meanwhile, the West is also afraid that Russia will create a precedent of redrawing the national map, changing the previous status quo, so there is a high possibility that the West will reject Russia's proposal to recognize the new status quo. At that time, pressure will increase on the Ukrainian leadership, causing them to continue the military conflict with Russia.

Russia may choose this third option in the context of the Russian economy not really growing and facing certain difficulties, which existed before and became more serious with the sanctions imposed by the West.

Russia has already consumed a considerable amount of weapons and equipment in the conflict in Ukraine and has had to make use of weapons and equipment from the Soviet era. In addition, Russian technology has not yet helped Russia create a large amount of smart weapons to gain complete dominance on the battlefield. Russia has had to use a lot of weapons and ammunition imported from Iran. In terms of trade, Russia is in great need of China at this time./.

Trung Hieu