Ukraine's counter-offensive forced to switch to defensive mode
(Baonghean.vn) - Observers say Ukraine's counter-offensive is being threatened by the US Republican Party's reluctance to continue providing aid. However, delaying the aid package for a few weeks could also negatively affect Ukraine's forces, forcing them to switch to a defensive mode.
The appearance of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at a NATO defense ministers meeting on October 11, where the Ukrainian leader again requested another arms package, underscored Kiev’s concerns about declining support from its allies, after Republicans opposed the aid package and the world turned its attention to the war in Israel.
With its huge arsenal and significant industrial capabilities, the United States played a key role in ensuring Ukraine quickly acquired modern weapons, especially artillery and air defense capabilities.
Even a temporary halt to aid could have a negative impact on Kiev’s strategy and tactics within weeks, Financial Times analysts said, ultimately leading to Ukraine easing its pressure to strike back.
Despite Republicans attempting to block some new aid to Ukraine in late September, the Biden administration has promised to support Kiev for as long as necessary. Congress has approved another aid package for Ukraine with broad bipartisan support. But even a delay of a few weeks could have a negative impact on the already sluggish progress of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ counteroffensive.
“In the next few weeks, if nothing significant changes in Parliament, it will affect Kiev’s military decisions. And it will certainly affect their military plans for the coming winter and spring,” said Max Bergmann, director of the Europe program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
At a meeting of defense ministers in Brussels on October 11, Ukrainian President Zelensky tried to explain that not only the fate of the counteroffensive was at stake.
“Counterattack is only one direction, but you also need to protect yourself, because on the other side there is Russia – a large terrorist army” – the Ukrainian leader said.
Mick Ryan, a former Australian Army major general who closely monitors the Ukraine conflict, said the uncertainty surrounding US military supplies has forced Ukraine to rethink its tactics and strategy. According to him, Ukraine's armed forces commander-in-chief Valery Zaluzhny will prepare for the worst.
White House officials and congressional leaders, on the other hand, are considering combining aid to Israel and Ukraine in the same package, which would allow for more aid to Kiev. But that is not guaranteed. The risk is that as the stalemate in Washington drags on, the Ukrainian military could begin to reduce its use of US-supplied weapons systems and ammunition, preparing for supply shortages.
“With massive fortifications, extensive minefields, and Russia’s use of surveillance drones, the success of Ukraine’s counteroffensive depends largely on artillery, which is spending 6,000 to 7,000 shells a day,” said Dara Massicot, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
If Ukraine decides it can no longer get anything more, it will start saving, stalling the counteroffensive. A delay in support of just a few weeks could lead to losses and failure.”