Global 5G mobile subscriptions to reach 1.6 billion by end-2023
(Baonghean.vn) - The latest edition of the Ericsson Mobility Report published in November 2023 forecast that the number of 5G subscribers will reach 1.6 billion by the end of 2023, accounting for about 18% of the total number of global mobile subscribers.
According to this Report, there are currently about 280 5G networks deployed worldwide, compared to 822 4G networks. Of which, the majority of 5G networks deployed so far are 5G based on non-standalone architecture (5G NSA: 5G Non-Standalone), that is, based on the existing 4G network infrastructure.
However, according to Ericsson, more and more mobile operators are deploying 5G networks that do not rely on existing 4G network infrastructure, also known as 5G standalone networks (5G SA: 5G Standalone). Figures show that, to date, about 40 mobile service providers globally have deployed or launched standalone 5G on public mobile networks.
The report assesses that 5G adoption rates continue to increase worldwide despite global macroeconomic challenges and geopolitical instability in some markets.
About 80% of the growth will be generated by four countries and regions, including China, India, North America and Western Europe. Of these, China will account for one-third of the growth by 2023, driven largely by the continued rollout of 5G, which now covers 95% of the population in China, combined with the growing popularity of 5G-enabled smartphones.
5G mobile subscriptions to reach 5.3 billion by 2029
The report points out that 5G mobile subscription growth is accelerating rapidly, with around 18% of all global mobile subscriptions expected to be 5G by the end of 2023. The total number of 5G subscriptions is forecast to increase by 63% to 610 million this year, bringing the total number of global 5G mobile subscriptions to 1.6 billion, which is around 100 million more than Ericsson's previous forecast.
Over the next six years, from end-2023 to 2029, the number of global 5G subscriptions is forecast to increase by more than 330%, from 1.6 billion to 5.3 billion. 5G coverage is forecast to cover more than 45% of the global population by end-2023 and 85% by end-2029. North America and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are expected to have the highest 5G penetration rate by end-2029, at 92%.
Forecasts show that 5G technology will account for 25% of global mobile traffic this year. While average data consumption per smartphone user will reach 56 gigabytes per month by 2029, up from 21 gigabytes per month at the end of 2023.
5G is expected to become the dominant mobile technology by 2028. The report says 4G LTE subscriptions are currently at their peak, increasing by 6 million in the third quarter of 2023 to reach a total of 5.2 billion. That number is expected to decline to around 3.2 billion by the end of 2029, when the transition to 5G is more fully underway.
By region, North America leads in 5G subscription penetration, expected to reach 61% by the end of 2023. This is followed by Northeast Asia at 41%, the Gulf Cooperation Council countries at 34%, and Western Europe at around 25%. 5G subscription growth has been strong in India since the launch of 5G networks, but it still only penetrates around 11% of the market.
Achieving indoor 5G coverage is a challenge for mobile operators
Ericsson's Mobility Report also confirms that mobile broadband services, fixed wireless access (FWA), virtual reality and augmented reality (VR/AR)-based gaming are the most popular use cases among early adopters of 5G technology.
However, providing adequate indoor 5G coverage to subscribers is currently a major hurdle for mobile operators globally. With us spending more than 80% of our time indoors, having a good indoor 5G connection is really important.
Steven Davis, Ericsson's director of strategic marketing, noted that while most network traffic is generated indoors, most mid-band 5G deployments to date have been to support outdoor coverage and capacity, supporting mobile broadband services and fixed wireless access.
A recent study by Ericsson ConsumerLab found that users who experience 5G connectivity issues in crowded areas such as stadiums, airports, train stations, etc. are three times more likely to leave the network in the next six months than other users. So it’s really important that users have good connectivity and network performance where they need it.
The report highlights the need to upgrade the indoor experience to help ensure customer loyalty, and that expanding 5G coverage using mid-band spectrum and installing indoor microcells are optimal solutions to significantly improve network performance in these locations.
Mobile data traffic continues to grow strongly
In terms of legacy technologies, the Ericsson Mobility Report said that in the third quarter of this year, 3G subscriptions fell by 61 million and GSM/EDGE-only connections fell by 55 million; other technologies fell by about 2 million.
Data traffic continues to grow strongly, with mobile network data traffic increasing by about 7% from Q2 to Q3 2023 and up 33% compared to Q3 last year.
Ericsson says total global mobile data traffic (excluding fixed wireless access network traffic) is likely to reach 130 exabytes per month by the end of 2023. Including fixed wireless traffic, total global mobile data traffic will reach 160 exabytes per month. Video traffic is estimated to account for 73% of total mobile data traffic by the end of this year.
By 2029, global mobile data traffic excluding fixed wireless traffic will reach 403 exabytes per month and 563 exabytes per month when including fixed wireless traffic.
Regarding Internet of Things (IoT) device connections, Ericsson's Mobility Report said that the total number of cellular IoT connections is forecast to reach around 3 billion by the end of 2023. Broadband IoT (4G/5G) is forecast to reach around 1.6 billion connections by 2023 and is expected to be the technology with the largest market share of cellular IoT devices until 2029.
When it comes to the development trend of 5G devices, the report said that so far, more than 1,000 5G smartphone models have been launched in the market and it is expected to account for 62% of smartphones shipped this year, up from 57% last year.