World Tennis 2024: Can Sinner and Alcaraz dominate like the Big Three?
Legendary John McEnroe asserts that Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz will not be able to dominate like the Big Three did for the past two decades. Is that a correct assessment?
This is the first season since 2002 that all four Grand Slams have not belonged to Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal or Roger Federer. It can be seen as an official transfer of power in the world of men's tennis.
Transfer of power
Jannik Sinner completed a hard-court Grand Slam double in 2024 by defeating Taylor Fritz 6-3, 6-4, 7-5 in the final, having won in Melbourne earlier this year. With Carlos Alcaraz winning on opposite surfaces in Paris and London, this is the first season since 2002 that the "Big Three" - Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer - have not won a Grand Slam.
That statistic backs up McEnroe's claim of a new era in men's tennis. The question now is whether Alcaraz and Sinner can truly dominate the rest of the world. During their reign, the Big Three enjoyed a period of consecutive Grand Slam titles from the 2016 US Open (Stan Wawrinka) to the 2020 US Open (Dominic Thiem). Looking further back, Djokovic, Nadal and Federer have "covered" 63 of the 76 titles between Federer's first Wimbledon title in 2003 and his last appearance at that tournament 19 years later. Such a long period of dominance seems unlikely to be repeated, no matter how talented Sinner and Alcaraz.
"These guys probably won't be able to dominate like their three seniors did," McEnroe said. "Zverev is ranked No. 2 in the world after this tournament. For those who have been left behind, that will increase their desire to finally overcome the difficulties and win."
Good, but not outstanding
It is rare for two players to share all four Grand Slams in the same season. Nadal and Federer did it in 2017, the year Federer made a spectacular comeback from a knee injury. Two years later, Djokovic and Nadal shared all four Grand Slams in 2019. The last season where all the Grand Slams were won by players under 23 was 1993, with champions like Jim Courier, Sergi Bruguera and Pete Sampras.
Sinner and Alcaraz, like their predecessors, share a clear sense of tennis. Alcaraz is a more emotional player, relying on feel and creativity, and struggles to focus when he loses inspiration. Sinner, meanwhile, is a consistent and relentless performer, whether from point to point, or week to week.
But despite his intense focus, Sinner admits it has been a difficult season for him, not only because of the hip problems that flared up in the spring, but also because of the aftershocks of two positive drug tests in March. Of course, Sinner’s victory shows that he has an admirable level head. It’s worth remembering that many players – including Federer – have questioned whether Sinner has been given preferential treatment.
"Sinner has been carrying 20kg on his shoulders for the last four months. And then 40kg in the last three weeks. But he can turn it around and day by day, build confidence and feel a little bit lighter," coach Darren Cahill said of his student in a conversation with ESPN.
Who will stop Sinner - Alcaraz?
Djokovic has been empty-handed at the 2024 Grand Slam, but that doesn't mean we can dismiss him from the list of candidates for major tournaments in 2025. Nole's performance at the Olympics proves that he still has the ability to win major events. Of course, the 3-set format at the Olympics is very different from the 5-set format at the Grand Slam. And it's hard to believe that Nole will be the number one candidate for the Grand Slams next season.
With Taylor Fritz's defeat to Sinner, players born in the 1997s have a record of 1-18 in Grand Slam finals against opponents born in other decades. By comparison, Sinner and Alcaraz's GenZ generation has a record of 6-0. Dominic Thiem retired from Grand Slams after the US Open, and Daniil Medvedev is the only Grand Slam champion born in the 90s still competing.
After being eliminated in the first round of the US Open, Stefanos Tsitsipas (born 1998) admitted that he was exhausted. Alexander Zverev (1997) is still unlucky with Grand Slams. Medvedev (1996) is still considered a candidate in major tournaments, but his performance in the quarterfinals against Sinner was very disappointing. Meanwhile, despite having the best tournament of his life, the final showed Fritz's limitations when he was surpassed by a better player.
And perhaps McEnroe was a little hasty. Alcaraz and Sinner, 21 and 23, could well continue to develop and push each other to create a new era of dominance.