Is early voter turnout a warning sign for US Vice President Harris?
Democrats need large numbers of black voters to turn out in North Carolina, but turnout is falling.
Early voting numbers in North Carolina show voters are predominantly older and white, Politico reported, an early warning sign for Democrats who need a large turnout of voters of color if Vice President Kamala Harris is to flip the state.
As of Oct. 30, black voters made up 18 percent of the early voting electorate. Some Democratic officials said they would need to increase that number to about 20 percent for Harris to be competitive statewide.
In 2020, black voters made up 19%, when former President Donald Trump narrowly won North Carolina. Democrats acknowledge that unless something changes in their favor in the final days of early voting or on Election Day, the outcome could be far from certain.
At this point in 2020, about 36,000 fewer African Americans had voted in person than in 2024. That gap must be narrowed among African Americans for Democrats to win, said Thomas Mills, a Democratic strategist in North Carolina.
Acknowledging that the black vote is on the decline, former Congressman GK Butterfield believes Democrats will close the gap, predicting “this week will be spectacular” in terms of African-American turnout. He said black voters know “the consequences of another Trump presidency,” and believe there will be a turnout similar to that of Barack Obama.
Early voting data also shows that women and suburban voters are outnumbering voters so far — something Democrats see as a positive sign for Vice President Kamala Harris. Meanwhile, turnout among voters under 40 has been improving in recent days.
Democratic presidential candidates have struggled to attract black voters since 2008. And for Vice President Harris, it’s not just a matter of turnout, but also signs of erosion of her support in North Carolina among black men, especially young men, according to public polls. Harris is expected to win a majority of African-American voters in North Carolina and nationally, but any decline with that group would be a major blow to the vice president.
“We have to intensify our focus and our messaging” to voters of color “between now and Election Day,” said U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Michael Regan, who has campaigned for Ms. Harris across eastern North Carolina.