Analysts assess Ukraine's role in Russia-US dialogue
Analysts say Ukraine is "on the menu" rather than on the negotiating table between the US and Russia.
According to RIA Novosti on March 19, British military analyst Michael Clarke told Sky News that Ukraine is "on the menu, not on the negotiating table" between Russia and the US on a peaceful solution.
“There’s an old saying in diplomacy: ‘If you’re not at the table, you’re on the menu.’ And I believe Ukraine is on the menu,” Clark said.
According to Mr. Clark, the fact that the Ukrainian President did not participate in the March 18 dialogue between Russian and US leaders "says a lot" in the context of Kiev's important role in resolving the conflict.
Lev Sokolshchik, a research fellow at the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics, told RIA Novosti that the United States could act as a guarantor for the implementation of agreements between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his US counterpart Donald Trump after the phone call, as Ukraine is unlikely to reach an agreement and the United States has its own leverage, for example, military or financial.
“Since the Ukrainian side is really, in many ways, incapable of reaching an agreement, in many ways they are subject to various influences… But what could be a kind of guarantee or commitment here is the political will from the US side – the country that has the leverage to put serious pressure on Ukraine. Political, military, closing off arms supplies, intelligence supplies, putting pressure on direct financial influence,” said Sokolshchik.
The expert noted that during the phone call, Russia outlined its interests in ensuring national security, resolving the conflict in Ukraine, and its interests in relations with the United States, including the opportunity to further develop cooperation in the economic sphere. Expert Sokolshchik stressed that Russia is determined to protect its national interests and is ready to take into account the interests of its partners.
Mr. Sokolshchik added that during Joe Biden's presidency, a large number of problems and contradictions have accumulated between Russia and the United States, which "cannot be resolved overnight or through a few phone calls," but the conversation between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump is a positive signal for deeper bilateral relations, making it possible to "cautiously predict positive dynamics."
The expert also explained that the expert groups that will be created to resolve the conflict in Ukraine will have to develop mechanisms for implementing the agreements of the heads of state.