Diagnosing the cause of the slump: Liverpool, Barcelona, ​​Juventus

From Liverpool, Barcelona, ​​Juventus to Newcastle United, Athletic Club, Atalanta, Nottingham Forest, Mainz and Fiorentina, each team is "sick" in a different way: defensive structure, personnel breakdown, finishing quality or a decline from last season's overperformance. Below are the key bottlenecks that need to be analyzed.

Liverpool: defensive weaknesses and set pieces are the root cause.

The reigning Premier League champions have lost 5 of their last 6 domestic league matches, dropping to 8th place; and have lost 7 of their last 10 matches across all competitions. Attention has been focused on the attacking line (Mohamed Salah, Florian Wirtz, Alexander Isak), but the statistics reveal the root of the problem lies in the defense.

• Goals scored and xG generated dropped from the top spot to sixth – still a decent level.
• Defense: Ranked 9th in xG conceded, 12th in actual goals conceded (17 goals/11 matches); conceded ≥2 goals in 7 matches.
• Status change: from 4th place to xG loss due to counter-attacks, dropping to 17th; opponent's shot quality increased.
• Set pieces: Last season we only conceded 9 goals, this season we've already conceded 7 (including long throw-ins).
• Goalkeepers: save percentage dropped from +0.10 goals/game (Alisson – Kelleher) to -0.26 (Alisson – Mamardashvili).

While the attacking line's "bad luck" might balance itself out over time, Arne Slot urgently needs to address his defensive transitions and set-pieces if he doesn't want the season to slip away.

Barcelona: not experiencing a drop in form, but lacking personnel stability.

Real Madrid's average points total in La Liga is almost the same as their championship season, but they've been relegated. Barcelona's difficulty lies in the personnel gaps that have left their core team unstable.

• Playing time in La Liga has decreased sharply: Lamine Yamal (83.7% → over 58%), Raphinha (83.2% → 35.6%), Robert Lewandowski (78.4% → approximately 41.6%).
• The trio who scored 89 goals and provided 44 assists last season now have only 16 goals and 7 assists after one-third of the season.
• Hansi Flick's high-pressing system is effective in La Liga, but in the Champions League, Barca are near the bottom in terms of xG (gains per shot) due to the space behind their pushed-up defense.

Barca's problem is the most difficult kind of "disease" to cure: injuries and a lack of consistency. The system isn't bad, but it simultaneously lacks the best players.

Newcastle United: played directly but lacked quality finishing.

Last season, Newcastle were dangerous despite their small numbers. This season, after parting ways with Isak, they brought in Nick Woltemade and Yoane Wissa. Woltemade has scored 6 goals in all competitions but only takes about 1.6 shots per 90 minutes; Wissa is injured and hasn't played yet.

• Attack has plummeted: 11 goals in the Premier League, ranking 17th; xG (goal difference) is only average.

When playing directly without creating quality chances, Newcastle fail to impose their game and are vulnerable to counter-attacks.

Juventus: An expensive lineup of forwards… yet their shots are too weak.

After a period of goal drought despite a decent xG (4.4 xG in 4 matches but no goals), under Luciano Spalletti, the number of goals increased slightly, but still fell far short of expectations: 6 goals from 7.9 xG after the first 4 matches.

• Throughout the season, Juventus ranked 16th in Serie A in terms of xG per shot (~0.12).
• Dusan Vlahovic, Jonathan David, and Loïs Openda average around 3.5 shots per 90 minutes, with an xG per shot of approximately 0.11.
• The creative players like Kenan Yildiz and Andrea Cambiaso haven't created enough "good" chances; their finishing efficiency is poor (4 goals from a combined total of ~5.7 xG).

Juve haven't fallen apart yet, still clinging to the top 4 thanks to wins against weaker opponents, but to compete for the championship, they must improve the quality of their passing and finishing in the final third of the pitch.

Athletic Club: Returning the "lucky charm"

Last season, Athletic Bilbao conceded only 29 goals in 38 matches despite having an average of around 1 goal conceded per game. This season, the average of goals conceded per game has decreased further, but the actual number of goals conceded has increased to approximately 1.1 per game.

• The attacking line has been depleted by injuries: Iñaki Williams, Nico Williams, and Oihan Sancet have seen a significant drop in playing time.
• Only 4 goals from open play in 12 matches; still in the top 7 in La Liga but far behind the Champions League group.

With a team that relies on impeccable defense and careful tactics, a moment of bad luck can immediately cause them to fall behind.

Atalanta: many shots but few chances.

Replacing Gian Piero Gasperini with Ivan Juric, Atalanta still boasts one of the highest attacking records in Serie A, but the quality of their chances has dropped from the top three to average.

• Last 8 matches: 4 goals from approximately 11.2 xG; if we exclude Lazar Samardzic's 2 goals, the remaining 2 goals were from over 10 xG.

With Raffaele Palladino taking over, the new coach effect might help in the short term, but to compete for a top-four spot, they need to get closer to the goal, rather than just increasing the number of shots on goal.

Nottingham Forest: When set-piece weapons become blunt, everything falls apart.

Last season, Forest scored 17 goals from set pieces, with a goal difference of +8. This season, under three different managers with three different styles (Nuno Espirito Santo, Ange Postecoglou, Sean Dyche), set pieces have become a weakness.

• Scored 2 goals but conceded 9 from set pieces, goal difference -7.

Under Sean Dyche, the structure and spirit have improved, but without patching the set-piece, escaping the bottom group will be difficult to sustain.

Mainz: dropping Jonathan Burkardt, abandoning the attacking line.

Last season, Mainz had a better defense than their xG (gross per goal), with Jonathan Burkardt carrying the team (18 goals from 14.8 xG); Paul Nebel capitalized on opportunities well. This season, Burkardt moved to Eintracht Frankfurt, Nebel came back down to earth, and the team's attacking limitations were exposed.

• The team boasts the lowest shot-per-attack rate in the Bundesliga; and the worst number of shots taken with few defenders blocking the ball.

Although the models still suggest a chance of survival thanks to a not-too-bad overall xG, Mainz serves as a reminder that luck doesn't always stand on one side.

Fiorentina: From soaring xG to a goal-scoring crisis.

In the 2024-25 season, they scored 60 goals from approximately 49.7 xG; Robin Gosens, Yacine Adli, and Rolando Mandragora contributed 13 goals from 5.5 xG – exceeding expectations. This season, Adli left; Gosens and Mandragora each scored 3 goals from 2.7 xG – returning to a more normal level.

• The team has generated approximately 15.5 xG (top 5), with the highest xG per shot in Serie A, but has only scored 9 goals.
• Moise Kean: 2 goals from 5.7 xG; missed a 0.98 xG chance against Torino.
• Goals conceded from set pieces have equaled those of the entire previous season, after only half the season.

The foundation for creating opportunities remains good, so the risk of a freefall isn't great, but European hopes will fade if finishing and set pieces don't improve.

Overall

The crises are not all the same: some teams are paying off overperformance (Athletic, Fiorentina, Mainz), some are suffering from injuries and fixture schedules (Barcelona, ​​Newcastle), some are facing structural problems (Liverpool, Forest, Atalanta), and some simply have poor finishing (Juventus). Correct diagnosis is the first step to treatment.

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