Opta: Arsenal 79.14% chance of winning the title, MU predicted to finish 9th.
Following the 1-1 draw with Chelsea and Man City's 3-2 victory, the Opta supercomputer updated its rankings: Arsenal leads the title race with 79.14% probability, predicting a finish of 81 points; MU could finish 9th.
Opta's supercomputer has just adjusted its 2025-26 Premier League forecast: Arsenal still hold the biggest advantage in the title race with a 79.14% probability, despite a 1-1 draw against Chelsea when the opponent played with 10 men for 52 minutes. Man City won 3-2 against Leeds United thanks to a late goal from Phil Foden, easing the pressure in round 13, but their chances of winning the title according to the model are now only 11.03%.
Championship title: Arsenal still in the lead.
Arsenal are currently just 5 points behind the chasing pack, but Opta predicts Mikel Arteta's side will finish the season 11 points ahead of Man City. The estimated finish is 81 points – matching Leicester City's 2015-16 season, one of their lowest-scoring league seasons. For Arsenal, this would be enough to end their 21-year domestic title wait.
Meanwhile, Man City – despite returning to the title race with three points against Leeds United – are only given an 11.03% chance of winning the championship and are projected to finish with 70 points. Chelsea are third in terms of probability of winning the title with 4.08%, while Liverpool are fourth in the group competing for a Champions League spot.
| Team | The possibility of winning the championship. | Forecast Point |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 79.14% | 81 |
| Man City | 11.03% | 70 |
| Chelsea | 4.08% | — |
The race for the top 5 in the Champions League: Liverpool leads the way.
Opta predicts Liverpool will finish fourth with around 63 points after their 1-0 win against West Ham, while Aston Villa will also be around 63 points. Brighton and Crystal Palace are close behind, creating a tight race between 4th and 7th place.
Newcastle – currently 13th – are positioned in the top 8 with around 58 points, level with Crystal Palace. Man Utd temporarily climbed to 7th place after their 2-1 comeback victory against Palace, but Opta's model predicts they could finish the season in 9th place. Opta's odds of Man Utd qualifying for the Champions League are 10.19%.
Danger Zone: Wolves face a life-or-death situation.
At the bottom of the table, Opta's indicators are quite clear. Wolves have the highest risk of relegation at 95.51%, followed by Burnley at 66.99% and Leeds United at 62.62%. West Ham, at 41.38%, remains in the danger zone.
One place higher, Nottingham Forest is predicted to be relegated with a 17.51% chance, while Sunderland's is 4.04%. Both are currently safe but could be drawn into the relegation zone if they experience a poor run of form.
The immediate significance of the crucial series of matches.
Arsenal's 1-1 draw against Chelsea – with The Blues receiving a red card for Moises Caicedo and playing with 52 minutes to spare – stalled the league leaders' momentum. Man City's late three points against Leeds United heated up the race, but Opta data suggests the odds still heavily favor Arsenal.
Across all three crucial fronts – the championship, Champions League qualification, and the relegation battle – Opta's model emphasizes that the margin of error is narrowing. Every point, every moment will become more valuable as the season enters its crucial acceleration phase.