Cagliari vs AC Milan Prediction - Serie A: A Challenge at Unipol Domus

Thanh Vinh•January 2, 2026 08:26

AC Milan have the opportunity to consolidate their second-place position in the league table when they face a Cagliari side severely plagued by injuries in the early hours of January 3rd.

The clash between Cagliari and AC Milan at the Unipol Domus stadium is crucial for the ambitions of both teams during this intense phase of the season. While AC Milan is maintaining impressive form to chase the top spot, Cagliari must strive to secure points to improve their position in the lower half of the table.

02:45 AM on January 3rd - A one-sided match in Serie A

Entering this round, AC Milan is showing incredible consistency. The Rossoneri currently sit second in the league table with 35 points after 16 matches. In contrast, hosts Cagliari are in 14th place with 18 points after 17 games. The 17-point gap between the two teams clearly reflects the difference in skill level and squad depth at the moment.

Ranking position

TeamLocationPointRecent form
AC Milan2354 wins, 1 draw
Cagliari14182 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses

Form and attacking power

AC Milan boasts an impressive scoring record, averaging 1.7 goals per game. The Rossoneri's defense is also incredibly solid, conceding only 13 goals in 16 matches (an average of 0.8 goals per game). Notably, the visitors remain undefeated away from home this season, with a record of 4 wins and 3 draws on the road.

On Cagliari's side, the team at the Unipol Domus stadium is struggling to maintain consistency. They have conceded 24 goals since the start of the season, an average of 1.4 goals per game. Although they have secured two home wins, their ability to withstand the pressure from Milan's powerful attack remains a big question mark for the Sardinian team.

Rossoneri's history of dominant head-to-head encounters.

Statistics from the last five head-to-head matches heavily favor the Milan team. In the last five encounters, AC Milan is unbeaten with three wins and two draws. Notably, Milan has annihilated their opponents in some matches with emphatic scores such as 5-1 or 4-1.

  • January 12, 2025: AC Milan 1 - 1 Cagliari
  • November 10, 2024: Cagliari 3 - 3 AC Milan
  • May 12, 2024: AC Milan 5 - 1 Cagliari
  • January 3, 2024: AC Milan 4 - 1 Cagliari
  • September 27, 2023: Cagliari 1 - 3 AC Milan

However, it's worth noting that in their two most recent encounters, Cagliari put up a strong fight and successfully held Milan to a draw. This shows that the home team always knows how to make things difficult for a big opponent when they have the support of their home crowd.

Team news: Cagliari has suffered heavy losses.

Entering this crucial match, Cagliari is facing a severe personnel crisis. Their injury list is extensive, involving many key players, especially in attack and midfield.

Cagliari's absentee list

  • A. Belotti:Absent due to a knee injury.
  • M. Felici:Absent due to a knee injury.
  • M. Folorunsho:Absent due to a knee injury.
  • J. Pedro:Absent due to a knee injury.
  • L. Mazzitelli:His availability for the match is still uncertain due to injury.

AC Milan's list of absentees

  • S. Gimenez:Absent due to ankle injury.

The loss of four key players due to the same knee injury significantly weakened Cagliari's strength. Meanwhile, AC Milan only lacked S. Gimenez, making it easier for their coach to rotate and select the optimal squad.

Analysis and prediction of results

Based on statistical indicators and the current situation, AC Milan is considered the clear favorite to win. However, predictions suggest a 50% chance of a draw and a 50% chance of an away win.

With a disciplined defense, Milan is expected to minimize the number of goals conceded (predicted under 3.5 goals for the entire match). The advice for investors is to consider a double-chance option: a draw or an AC Milan win to ensure safety.

Team lineup updated at 02:08 on 03/01/2026

Official lineup

Cagliari

Diagram: 3-5-2

CoachFabio Pisacane

Starting lineup:

  • 1. Elia Caprile (G)
  • 28. Gabriele Zappa (D)
  • 6. Sebastiano Luperto (D)
  • 15. Juan Rodriguez (D)
  • 2. Marco Palestra (M)
  • 8. Michel Adopo (M)
  • 16. Matteo Prati (M)
  • 4. Luca Mazzitelli (M)
  • 33. Adam Obert (M)
  • 94. Sebastiano Esposito (F)
  • 9. Semih Kılıçsoy (F)

Substitutes:

  • 31. Boris Radunović
  • 24. Giuseppe Ciocci
  • 26. Yerry Mina
  • 23. Nicola Pintus
  • 14. Alessandro Deiola
  • 10. Gianluca Gaetano
  • 20. Marko Rog
  • 27. Joseph Liteta
  • 21. Nicolò Cavuoti
  • 3. Riyad Idrissi
  • 18. Alessandro Di Pardo
  • 30. Leonardo Pavoletti
  • 77. Zito Luvumbo
  • 37. Yael Trepy
  • 29. Gennaro Borrelli

AC Milan

Diagram: 3-5-2

CoachMassimiliano Allegri

Starting lineup:

  • 16. Mike Maignan (G)
  • 23. Fikayo Tomori (D)
  • 5. Koni De Winter (D)
  • 33. Davide Bartesaghi (D)
  • 56. Alexis Saelemaekers (M)
  • 19. Youssouf Fofana (M)
  • 14. Luka Modrić (M)
  • 12. Adrien Rabiot (M)
  • 2. Pervis Estupiñán (M)
  • 8. Ruben Loftus-Cheek (F)
  • 10. Rafael Leão (F)

Substitutes:

  • 96. Lorenzo Torriani
  • 1. Pietro Terracciano
  • 31. Strahinja Pavlovicć
  • 46. ​​Matteo Gabbia
  • 27. David Odogu
  • 24. Zachary Athekame
  • 11. Christian Pulišić
  • 4. Samuel Ricci
  • 30. Ardon Jashari
  • 9. Niclas Füllkrug
  • 38. Alex Castello

Thanh Vinh