Newcastle vs Crystal Palace Prediction - Premier League

Thanh Vinh•January 4, 2026 08:12

The clash at St. James' Park is a highlight as Newcastle are just one point behind Crystal Palace in the league table, amidst severe personnel crises for both teams.

At 10:00 PM on January 4th, 2026, St. James' Park will host a clash between Newcastle and Crystal Palace. This match is crucial in determining their positions in the middle of the Premier League table, as the gap between the two teams is currently just one win.

A close battle on the leaderboard.

Currently, Crystal Palace sits in 11th place with 27 points, while Newcastle are close behind in 14th place with 26 points. This narrow gap makes this direct confrontation an opportunity for the Magpies to overtake their rivals or for the Eagles to widen the gap.

Newcastle have shown considerable confidence when playing at their home ground, St. James' Park. Of their seven wins this season, five have come at home. On the other hand, Crystal Palace are also a formidable opponent away from home, with five of their seven wins this season coming on the road.

Analysis of form and attacking strength

Newcastle have played 19 matches with a record of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses. Their scoring efficiency averages 1.4 goals per game (26 goals), while their defense has conceded 1.3 goals per game (24 goals). The home advantage, with only 2 losses since the start of the season, will be key for Newcastle's team to hope for a favorable result.

Meanwhile, Crystal Palace displayed a more pragmatic style of play. They scored 22 goals (an average of 1.2 goals per game) and possessed a fairly solid defense, conceding only 21 goals (an average of 1.1 goals per game). After 19 matches, the visitors had 7 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses, showing slightly more consistency than their opponents.

A severe staffing crisis.

Both clubs entered this match with lengthy injury lists, significantly impacting their starting lineups:

Newcastle's list of absentees:

  • D. Burn:Chest injury.
  • E. Krafth:Knee injury.
  • J. Lascelles:Muscle injury.
  • W. Osula:Ankle injury.
  • Cases left open:S. Botman (back), A. Elanga (knee), V. Livramento (knee), and K. Trippier (hamstring).

Crystal Palace's list of absentees:

  • R. Cardines, C. Kporha:Muscle and back injuries.
  • C. Doucoure, D. Munoz, C. Riad:Knee problems.
  • D. Kamada:Hamstring injury.
  • E. Nketiah:Thigh injury.
  • I. Sarr:Return to fulfill your national duty.
  • Cases left open:W. Hughes and C. Richards.

The head-to-head history favors the home team.

Looking at the last five encounters, Newcastle holds a significant advantage with two emphatic wins (5-0 in April 2025 and 4-0 in October 2023). Crystal Palace only managed one 2-0 victory in April 2024, with the remaining two matches ending in goalless draws or 1-1 draws. These statistics suggest that Newcastle often plays explosively when hosting Crystal Palace at home.

Analysis and predictions

Based on statistical indicators and home advantage, Newcastle are considered the favorites with a 45% chance of winning. However, a draw is also a high possibility (45%) due to Crystal Palace's disciplined defense away from home. The likelihood of the visitors taking home three points is only estimated at 10%.

This is predicted to be a tight, low-scoring match due to both teams missing key attacking players. A draw or a minimal victory for the home team is the most likely outcome.

Team lineup updated at 21:23 04/01/2026

Official lineup

Newcastle

Diagram: 4-3-3

CoachEddie Howe

Starting lineup:

  • 1. Nick Pope (G)
  • 67. Lewis Miley (D)
  • 12. Malick Thiaw (D)
  • 5. Fabian Schär (D)
  • 3. Lewis Hall (D)
  • 39. Bruno Guimarães (M)
  • 8. Sandro Tonali (M)
  • 7. Joelinton (M)
  • 23. Jacob Murphy (F)
  • 9. Yoane Wissa (F)
  • 10. Anthony Gordon (F)

Substitutes:

  • 32. Aaron Ramsdale
  • 2. Kieran Trippier
  • 4. Sven Botman
  • 21. Valentino Livramento
  • 37. Alex Murphy
  • 28. Joe Willock
  • 41. Jacob Ramsey
  • 11. Harvey Barnes
  • 27. Nick Woltemade

Crystal Palace

Diagram: 3-4-2-1

CoachOliver Glasner

Starting lineup:

  • 1. Dean Henderson (G)
  • 8. Jefferson Lerma (D)
  • 5. Maxence Lacroix (D)
  • 6. Marc Guéhi (D)
  • 17. Nathaniel Clyne (M)
  • 20. Adam Wharton (M)
  • 19. Will Hughes (M)
  • 3. Tyrick Mitchell (M)
  • 11. Brennan Johnson (F)
  • 10. Yéremy Pino (F)
  • 14. Jean-Philippe Mateta (F)

Substitutes:

  • 44. Walter Benítez
  • 72. Dean Benamar
  • 23. Jaydee Canvot
  • 86. Joel Drakes-Thomas
  • 21. Romain Esse
  • 24. Borna Sosa
  • 55. Justin Davenny
  • 42. Kaden Rodney
  • 12. Christantus Uche

Thanh Vinh