Newcastle vs Sunderland Prediction - Premier League

Newcastle vs Sunderland is a dramatic Tyne-Wear derby taking place amidst fierce competition between the two teams in the middle of the Premier League table. The match, held at St. James' Park at 7:00 PM on March 22, 2026, is crucial in determining the final standings of these two North East rivals.

Current league position and form

Currently, Newcastle are temporarily ranked 11th with 42 points after 30 rounds. The home team has maintained relatively stable form with 3 wins and 2 losses in the last 5 rounds. St. James' Park continues to be a major advantage as they have won 8 matches there since the beginning of the season.

On the other side of the pitch, Sunderland are in 13th place with 40 points. The visitors' form has been somewhat poor, with only 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last 5 matches. With a gap of just 2 points, a favorable result would allow Sunderland to overtake their opponents in the standings.

Professional statistics and head-to-head history

Newcastle currently boasts an average scoring rate of 1.4 goals per game, roughly equal to the number of goals conceded per game. Meanwhile, Sunderland employs a more pragmatic style of play with a more modest scoring rate of 1.0 goal per game and an average of 1.2 goals conceded per game.

Recent head-to-head results

• December 14, 2025: Sunderland 1 - 0 Newcastle
• January 6, 2024: Sunderland 0 - 3 Newcastle
• March 20, 2016: Newcastle 1 - 1 Sunderland
• October 25, 2015: Sunderland 3 - 0 Newcastle
• April 5, 2015: Sunderland 1 - 0 Newcastle

History is on Sunderland's side, with them winning 3 of the last 5 encounters between the two teams. However, Newcastle had a dominant 3-0 victory earlier in 2024, showing they are always ready to explode in derby matches.

Team situation and tactical predictions

Both managers are facing a difficult personnel dilemma. Newcastle will certainly be without key player Bruno Guimaraes due to a muscle injury, along with E. Krafth, L. Miley, and F. Schar all having knee and ankle problems. S. Tonali's availability remains a big question mark.

Sunderland suffered even greater losses with N. Angulo, JT Bi, R. Mundle, and B. Traore all confirmed absent. In addition, the list of players whose availability is uncertain has risen to five, including key players D. Ballard (muscle injury) and N. Mukiele (calf injury).

Match analysis

Based on home advantage and slightly better form, Newcastle are considered the favorites to control the match. Predictions suggest the home team has a 45% chance of winning, while a draw is also considered a 45% chance.

• Predicted result:Newcastle win or draw
• Expected goal-scoring performance:Newcastle under 2.5 goals, Sunderland under 1.5 goals
• Betting tips:Choosing the double chance option (Newcastle win or draw) is the safe bet in this derby.

Team lineup updated at 18:30 on March 22, 2026

Official lineup

Newcastle

Diagram: 4-3-3

CoachEddie Howe

Starting lineup:

• 32. Aaron Ramsdale (G)
• 2. Kieran Trippier (D)
• 4. Sven Botman (D)
• 33. Dan Burn (D)
• 3. Lewis Hall (D)
• 41. Jacob Ramsey (M)
• 7. Joelinton (M)
• 27. Nick Woltemade (M)
• 20. Anthony Elanga (F)
• 10. Anthony Gordon (F)
• 11. Harvey Barnes (F)

Substitutes:

• 1. Nick Pope
• 12. Malick Thiaw
• 21. Valentino Livramento
• 37. Alex Murphy
• 28. Joe Willock
• 9. Yoane Wissa
• 18. William Osula
• 23. Jacob Murphy
• 62. Sean Neave

Sunderland

Diagram: 4-1-4-1

CoachRegis Le Bris

Starting lineup:

• 31. Melker Ellborg (G)
• 6. Lutsharel Geertruida (D)
• 13. Luke O'Nien (D)
• 15. Omar Alderete (D)
• 32. Hume's Tom (D)
• 34. Granit Xhaka (M)
• 11. Chris Rigg (M)
• 19. Habib Diarra (M)
• 27. Noah Sadiki (M)
• 7. Chemsdine Talbi (M)
• 9. Brian Brobbey (F)

Substitutes:

• 21. Simon Moore
• 17. Reinildo Mandava
• 3. Dennis Cirkin
• 20. Nordi Mukiele
• 51. Jenson Jones
• 28. Enzo Le Fée
• 50. Harrison Jones
• 12. Eliezer Mayenda
• 18. Wilson Isdor

Thanh Vinh