The global food price index rose to 128.5 points due to pressure from the Middle East.
The latest report from the FAO shows that global food prices in March 2026 increased by 2.4% compared to the previous month. Rising energy prices and geopolitical conflicts were the main contributing factors.
The global food price index in March 2026 recorded its second consecutive monthly increase, averaging 128.5 points. According to a report from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), this represents a 2.4% increase compared to February 2026 and a 1% increase compared to the same period last year.
What is driving the upward trend in the commodity market?
This increase stems primarily from energy price fluctuations and the direct impact of conflicts in the Middle East. Escalating input costs have had a ripple effect on the global food supply chain.
Máximo Torero, FAO's Chief Economist, noted that while current global grain supplies remain abundant, prolonged conflict will force farmers to choose between cutting inputs or switching to crops that require less fertilizer. This will directly shape yields and prices in the coming months.
Detailed fluctuations of major commodity groups
The market witnessed a clear differentiation between product groups in March 2026. Specifically:
| Product group | Changes compared to February 2026 | Key features |
|---|---|---|
| Road | +7.2% | Brazil prioritizes ethanol production due to rising crude oil prices. |
| Vegetable oil | +5.1% | Demand for biofuels is increasing sharply. |
| Cereal | +1.5% | Wheat prices rose 4.3% due to drought in the United States. |
| Milk | +1.2% | Supply in Oceania is declining. |
| Meat | +1.0% | Pork and beef prices are rising in the EU and Brazil. |
Grain and vegetable oil market
The grain price index rose slightly, supported by wheat prices, despite a 3% drop in global rice prices due to weak import demand. Meanwhile, the vegetable oil group saw a strong 13.2% increase year-on-year in 2025. Palm, soybean, and sunflower oil prices all rose in line with the increase in international crude oil prices.
Sugar and fresh food production
Sugar prices saw the sharpest increase (7.2%) due to Brazil, the leading exporter, shifting its use of sugarcane to produce ethanol. For fresh food items, pork prices in the European Union and beef prices in Brazil both rose sharply due to limited export supplies.
Forecast of supply prospects in 2026
The FAO forecasts global wheat production in 2026 to reach approximately 820 million tons, a 1.7% decrease from the previous year. Unfavorable weather and low agricultural prices are expected to reduce production in Russia, the United States, and the EU. Conversely, production in India is expected to reach record levels.
Notably, global rice production is projected to increase by 2%, reaching a record 563.3 million tons, thanks to contributions from countries such as China, India, and Indonesia. The ratio of grain reserves to global consumption at the end of the 2025/2026 season is forecast at 32.2%, indicating that overall supply remains stable despite geopolitical risks.