OPEC+ increased oil production by 206,000 barrels per day in May 2026.
Faced with pressure from crude oil prices approaching $120 per barrel, OPEC+ decided to increase production quotas, but experts warn that this increase will not be enough to compensate for the supply shortfall.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners (OPEC+) have officially agreed to increase oil production quotas by 206,000 barrels per day for May 2026. The decision was made at an online meeting on April 5th, amidst heavy pressure on the global energy market due to the closure of vital shipping routes.
Serious disruption in the Strait of Hormuz
Geopolitical conflict has brought the Strait of Hormuz – the world's most important oil shipping route – to a near standstill since the end of February 2026. This situation has directly disrupted exports from key OPEC+ members including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq. These are also the only countries in the group capable of significantly increasing production before the conflict erupted.
Currently, crude oil prices have surged to their highest level in four years, approaching $120 per barrel. This development has led to escalating transportation fuel prices, putting significant pressure on consumers and businesses worldwide and forcing many governments to implement urgent supply-saving measures.
The practical effectiveness of increasing production.
Despite the announced quota increase, OPEC+'s 206,000 barrels per day is considered insufficient by analysts to alleviate the energy shortage. This figure represents less than 2% of the supply disruptions caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Energy Aspects, a consulting firm, believes this increase is merely "symbolic" given the ongoing maritime congestion.
Jorge Leon, Director of Geopolitical Analysis at Rystad Energy, stated: "In reality, this decision adds very little supply to the market. With the Strait of Hormuz closed, the additional oil supply from OPEC+ is almost meaningless."
Risk of oil prices reaching a record high of $150/barrel.
Besides disruptions in the Gulf region, several other member countries, such as Russia, have also been unable to increase production due to sanctions and infrastructure damage. It is estimated that current supply disruptions have resulted in a loss of approximately 12-15 million barrels per day, equivalent to 15% of total global supply – the largest deficit ever recorded.
JPMorgan Bank warns that oil prices could surpass $150 per barrel, setting an all-time high, if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted until mid-May 2026. OPEC+'s move to increase production demonstrates the alliance's readiness, but its actual effectiveness still depends entirely on the ability to restore international shipping lanes.