AS Roma vs Fiorentina Prediction - Serie A: The Battle at Stadio Olimpico

Thanh Vinh•May 4, 2026 09:05

AS Roma aims to secure all three points at home to protect their sixth-place position, while Fiorentina is striving to escape the bottom of the table with a pragmatic playing style.

The Serie A match between AS Roma and Fiorentina will take place at 01:45 on May 5th, 2026 at the Stadio Olimpico. This is a crucial encounter for both teams as the season enters its decisive phase, directly impacting the home team's European qualification chances and the visitors' efforts to avoid relegation.

Position in the standings and match context

Currently, AS Roma sits in 6th place in the Serie A standings with 61 points after 34 matches. The capital club maintains a fairly stable form with 19 wins, 4 draws, and 11 losses. Notably, Roma's strength lies in their home stadium, Stadio Olimpico, where they have secured 11 of their 19 victories since the start of the season.

Conversely, Fiorentina is having a difficult season, currently sitting in 16th place with 37 points. Despite being in the lower half of the table, the Viola have shown they are a very difficult opponent to beat recently. In their last 34 matches, Fiorentina have had 13 draws, demonstrating a tight and calculated style of play.

Recent form and goal difference

In their last five matches, AS Roma have recorded three wins, one draw, and one loss. Their scoring efficiency averages 1.4 goals per game, while their defense has been quite solid, conceding an average of only 0.9 goals per game. This balance between attack and defense is what helps Roma maintain their position in the top group.

On the other side of the pitch, Fiorentina are unbeaten in their last five matches, with two wins and three draws. While their attacking prowess isn't particularly impressive, averaging 1.1 goals per game, their average of 1.3 goals conceded per game suggests their defense will face significant pressure when traveling to the capital.

A history of dramatic confrontations.

Statistics from the last five encounters between the two teams reveal an incredible balance:

  • AS Roma won 2 matches (1-0 and 2-1).
  • Fiorentina won 1 match (5-1 score).
  • The two teams drew twice (1-1 and 2-2).

Matches between these two clubs are usually very intense with a relatively low number of goals, except for Roma's heavy defeat at the end of 2024.

Force situation and personnel losses

Both teams are facing serious personnel problems due to injuries. AS Roma will be missing key players including striker A. Dovbyk (groin injury), captain L. Pellegrini (thigh injury), along with E. Ferguson and N. El Aynaoui (suspended). The absence of Pellegrini and Dovbyk will undoubtedly significantly affect the home team's ability to control the game and finish.

On Fiorentina's side, the list of absentees is also extensive, including M. Kean (calf injury), T. Lamptey (knee injury), N. Fortini (back injury), along with L. Balbo and R. Piccoli. The absence of Moise Kean will be a major blow to the visitors' attack.

Tactical analysis and prediction

Based on home advantage and league position, AS Roma are considered the favorites with a 45% chance of winning. However, the probability of a draw is also 45%, reflecting the frustrating defensive style of Fiorentina. With both teams missing key strikers, the match is predicted to be low-scoring.

AS Roma will most likely take control of the ball and press from the start, while Fiorentina will prioritize a defensive counter-attacking style of play in order to secure at least one point at the Stadio Olimpico.

Team lineup updated at 01:30 on 05/05/2026

Official lineup

AS Roma

Diagram: 3-4-2-1

CoachGian Piero Gasperini

Starting lineup:

  • 99. Mile Svilar (G)
  • 23. Gianluca Mancini (D)
  • 5. Evan Ndicka (D)
  • 22. Mario Hermoso (D)
  • 19. Zeki Çelik (M)
  • 4. Bryan Cristante (M)
  • 17. Manu Koné (M)
  • 43. Wesley (M)
  • 18. Matías Soulé (F)
  • 61. Niccolò Pisilli (F)
  • 14. Donyell Malen (F)

Substitutes:

  • 70. Giorgio De Marzi
  • 95. Pierluigi Gollini
  • 87. Daniele Ghilardi
  • 12. Kostas Tsimikas
  • 24. Jan Ziółkowski
  • 2. Devyne Rensch
  • 3. Angeliño
  • 92. Stephan El Shaarawy
  • 21. Paulo Dybala
  • 78. Robinio Vaz
  • 20. Lorenzo Venturino

Fiorentina

Diagram: 4-3-3

CoachPaolo Vanoli

Starting lineup:

  • 43. David De Gea (G)
  • 2. Dodo (D)
  • 5. Marin Pongračić (D)
  • 6. Luca Ranieri (D)
  • 21. Robin Gosens (D)
  • 4. Marco Brescianini (M)
  • 44. Nicolò Fagioli (M)
  • 27. Cher Ndou (M)
  • 17. Jack Harrison (F)
  • 10. Albert Guðmundsson (F)
  • 19. Solomon Manor (F)

Substitutes:

  • 53. Oliver Christensen
  • 1. Luca Lezzerini
  • 60. Eddy Kouadio
  • 3. Daniele Rugani
  • 65. Fabiano Parisi
  • 15. Pietro Comuzzo
  • 72. Antonio Pirrò
  • 80. Giovanni Fabbian
  • 8. Rolando Mandragora
  • 61. Riccardo Braschi
  • 22. Jacopo Fazzini

Thanh Vinh