Warming China-North Korea relations?

(Baonghean) - China has sent its highest-level delegation to Pyongyang since leader Kim Jong-un took power to attend a large-scale military parade marking the 70th anniversary of the founding of the Workers' Party of Korea. This can be seen as an important step by China and paves the way for higher-level exchanges.

Although not a visit by a head of state, the presence of Chinese Politburo Standing Committee member Liu Yunshan in North Korea on the occasion of the country's 70th anniversary of the founding of the Workers' Party of Korea has attracted the attention of most of the world's media.

China and North Korea are traditionally close allies, but relations have soured over the past four years. There has been no official visit between the two countries’ leaders since Kim Jong-un took power in 2011.

Chinese President Xi Jinping and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

Partly because China is concerned about North Korea’s nuclear ambitions, especially as leader Kim Jong-un continues to expand his nuclear arsenal. In its toughest move yet, when North Korea threatened to conduct new missile tests in September, China bluntly demanded that Pyongyang comply with UN resolutions on its missile testing program and face sanctions if it violated them.

On the other hand, both China and North Korea seem to be establishing a new type of regional relationship. North Korea is trying to implement a policy of “de-China”, seeking new friends such as Russia and Iran, while China also does not want to continue to “protect” North Korea but also wants to balance regional relations by strengthening relations with South Korea - North Korea's annoying “neighbor”.

The fact that Chinese President Xi Jinping chose South Korea, rather than its "close" ally North Korea, to make an official visit after he took office has further distanced relations between the two countries.

In the context of such signs of cracks in China-North Korea relations, Liu Yunshan's visit is truly remarkable, especially because Liu is the first official at the Politburo level of China to visit North Korea in the past 4 years.

In terms of power, Mr. Liu is ranked 5th in the Communist Party of China. Not only did he attend the parade to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the founding of the Workers' Party of Korea, Mr. Liu Yunshan also made an official visit to the country and held talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Pyongyang.

Observers say this is an important sign that China wants to improve relations with its ally and an important opportunity for the two sides to “dialogue”. If Mr. Liu’s visit and work in Pyongyang this time goes smoothly, it could pave the way for higher-level Sino-North Korean talks.

Such a backdrop may seem to suggest a warmer future for Sino-North Korean relations, but in the grand scheme of things, there is little chance of a breakthrough in relations after Liu Yunshan’s visit. First, although a high-ranking Chinese leader is visiting North Korea, it is essentially just a “reciprocation” gesture. Last month, North Korea also sent General Choe Ryong-hae, Secretary of the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea, to Beijing to attend a military parade on the occasion of China’s victory anniversary. Such exchanges and meetings are not “worthy” of the relationship between allies.

Many cautious observers believe that in the near future, it is unlikely that Chinese President Xi Jinping or North Korean leader Kim Jong-un will visit each other. Neither side seems willing to make a pre-emptive meeting with the other. More importantly, trust between the two sides has been severely damaged. After the secret disagreements, it is now very difficult for North Korea and China to restore their relationship to its former state.

The exchanges and meetings between the two sides like the past time are just a thin thread enough to maintain and connect the remaining interests in the China-North Korea relationship. In fact, the two sides still need each other's support. China still needs North Korea as an important gateway to maintain its influence on the Korean Peninsula and the entire East Asia region. North Korea also cannot help but rely on China, at least in the economic field, in the context of the US and the international community constantly applying pressure, making the North Korean economy increasingly difficult.

It is these points that make the Sino-North Korean relationship difficult and impossible to break, but the degree of warming up again is still doubtful.

Thanh Huyen