Fickle as political 'weather'

(Baonghean) - Politics is also compared to the weather and the "profession" of forecasting in politics is also of great interest to the public. However, many times experts and the public are surprised by unpredictable developments.

US Presidential Election: An Unpredictable Game

The race to the White House is entering a tense climax, Republican candidate Donald Trump has unexpectedly gained an advantage over his opponent thanks to seemingly unimportant side details.

During a meeting to commemorate September 11 in New York, Hillary Clinton suddenly became dizzy and had to stop her speech to receive immediate medical attention.

Clinton - Trump: Two completely opposite opponents make the race to the White House more and more intense.

The cause was later announced as pneumonia. This sparked criticism of the presidential candidate's failure to disclose his health status to the public in a timely manner. His opponent, Trump, immediately took this opportunity to gain a lot of support from voters.

In fact, Mrs. Clinton had a not-so-bright election month when she continuously created “scandals” in the last 3 weeks. The first was the accusation on August 24 about her too close relationship with the donors who supported the foundation founded by her husband when she was Secretary of State.

Then, on September 2, the FBI investigation report on Clinton’s use of personal email for work was released. On September 9, Clinton was “in trouble” when she criticized Trump’s supporters, specifically saying that “about half of them are pathetic: racist, sexist, xenophobic, Islamophobic.”

The Democratic candidate's "unlucky" streak ended when he collapsed in the middle of his speech, which was captured on camera.

According to a survey released on September 15 by the Quinnipiac Congress, 62% of respondents rated Mrs. Clinton as qualified to serve as President (while only 38% favored Mr. Trump). However, Mrs. Clinton’s recent scandals have caused voters to lose sympathy and trust. 65% said Mrs. Clinton was “dishonest,” while 54% said the same for Mr. Trump.

The "amateur" tycoon in politics is said to have silly statements, sometimes contradictory, but gives people a feeling of enthusiasm and abundant energy, much more than the discreet, meticulous and cautious Mrs. Clinton.

Recently, instead of publicly revealing his medical examination results in the usual way, billionaire Trump participated in recording a famous medical TV show called “Dr. Oz Show”. Or in Ohio, where Mr. Trump just won over Mrs. Clinton, he mocked his opponent’s health condition by saying: “Do you believe Hillary can stand here in front of you for an hour like me? I don’t think so.”

The President of the Philippines and the unexpected "turn around"

After the scandal of insulting President Obama and having to apologize immediately afterwards, Philippine President Duterte continued to "shock" when he announced his willingness to buy weapons from China and Russia. This action will be like pouring cold water on the face of the US because since the defense treaty was signed in 1951, the US has provided 75% of the weapons and equipment for the Philippine military.

But the Philippines’ newest president wants to break with that precedent, declaring that he wants to buy weapons from countries “that are cheap and come with no strings attached.” He also asserted that the biggest threat to the Philippines is not the rise of China.

“I don’t need reconnaissance planes or F-16s. We don’t need to prepare to fight any country,” he told new recruits on September 13. That same day, Duterte announced that he would no longer allow the country’s military to patrol the seas with “foreign militaries.” Although he didn’t say it outright, it was widely understood that he was referring to US naval vessels.

His predecessor Benigno Aquino would be disappointed that the foundations he built are at risk of being dismantled by Mr Duterte. During his six years in office, Mr Aquino tried to get closer to the US to build a “wall” against the rise of China.

President Duterte - famous for his "unconventional" actions and statements - is even more unlike his predecessors. Photo: Reuters

Under his tenure, the two sides have approved an agreement that allows the US military access to five Philippine military bases and the right to build infrastructure there. It was also Mr. Aquino who boldly filed a lawsuit against Beijing and the nine-dash line. But it was only when Mr. Duterte came to power that the case was ruled by the court. Yet Mr. Duterte declared on August 29 to the Chinese ambassador in Manila that "I will not use that ruling at this time."

Duterte does not seem to have much ambition in the military sphere, where the Philippines and the United States are close allies. In return, he is particularly interested in China’s rapidly growing economy. During his campaign, he sent a message to China: “Build us a railway like you do in Africa and put aside our differences.”

Obviously, a change in leadership leads to significant differences in a country's domestic and foreign policies. In some cases, its impact reaches regional and international levels.

Hai Trieu

(According to Le Monde)