The political 'weather' is unpredictable.

(Baonghean) - Politics is often compared to the weather, and the "profession" of political forecasting is of great public interest. However, experts and the public are often surprised by unpredictable developments.

US Presidential Election: An Unpredictable Game

The race for the White House is entering a critical phase, with Republican candidate Donald Trump unexpectedly gaining an advantage over his opponent thanks to seemingly insignificant details.

During a 9/11 commemoration rally in New York, Hillary Clinton suddenly felt dizzy and had to stop her speech to receive immediate medical attention.

Clinton vs. Trump: Two completely opposite rivals, making the race to the White House increasingly intense.

The cause of death was later announced as pneumonia. This sparked criticism that the presidential candidate had not disclosed his health condition to the public in a timely manner. His opponent, Trump, immediately seized this opportunity to gain significant support from voters.

In fact, Clinton had a rather bleak campaign month, creating a series of controversies in the three weeks leading up to the election. It began with accusations on August 24th about her overly close relationships with wealthy donors to a foundation established by her husband when she was Secretary of State.

Next, on September 2nd, the FBI's investigative report on Clinton's use of a personal email account for official business was released. On September 9th, Clinton faced backlash for criticizing Trump supporters, specifically stating that "about half of them are pathetic: racist, sexist, xenophobic, anti-Muslim."

The Democratic candidate's string of misfortunes concluded with the moment he collapsed mid-sentence, captured on camera.

According to a poll released on September 15 by Quinnipiac, 62% of respondents rated Clinton as capable of serving as President (compared to only 38% who favored Trump). However, Clinton's recent scandals have eroded voter goodwill and trust. 65% believe Clinton is "dishonest," compared to 54% for Trump.

The billionaire, a political newcomer, is said to have made naive and sometimes contradictory statements, but he gives people a feeling of enthusiasm and abundant energy that is far greater than that of the discreet, polished, and cautious Hillary Clinton.

Recently, instead of publicly sharing his medical test results in the usual way, billionaire Trump participated in filming a popular medical television show called "Dr. Oz Show." Or in Ohio, where he had just gained an advantage over Clinton, he mocked his opponent's health, saying, "Do you believe Hillary could stand here in front of you for an hour like I am? I don't think so."

The Philippine President and the unexpected "turnaround".

Following the scandal involving insulting President Obama and his subsequent apology, Philippine President Duterte continued his shocking behavior by declaring his willingness to purchase weapons from China and Russia. This action would be a slap in the face to the US, as since the 1951 defense treaty, the US has supplied 75% of the weapons and equipment to the Philippine military.

However, the latest Philippine president wants to break this precedent, declaring his desire to purchase weapons from countries that offer them "cheap and without conditions." He also asserted that the greatest threat to the Philippines is not the rise of China.

“I don’t need reconnaissance planes or F-16s. We don’t need to prepare to fight any country,” he said to new recruits on September 13. That same day, Duterte declared he would no longer allow the country’s military to patrol the seas with “foreign forces.” Although he didn’t say it directly, everyone understood this was a reference to US Navy ships.

Perhaps his predecessor, Benigno Aquino, will be very disappointed that the foundations he built are at risk of being dismantled by Duterte. During his six years in office, Aquino worked to move closer to the US in order to build a "wall" against the rise of China.

President Duterte, known for his unconventional actions and statements, is even more unlike his predecessors. Photo: Reuters

Under his administration, the two sides reached an agreement allowing the US military access to five Philippine military bases and permission to build infrastructure there. It was also Aquino who boldly filed a lawsuit against Beijing and its nine-dash line. However, it wasn't until Duterte came to power that the case received a ruling. Yet, Duterte declared on August 29th to the Chinese ambassador in Manila, "I will not use that ruling at this time."

It seems that President Duterte has little ambition in the military sphere – an area where the Philippines and the US are close allies. Instead, he is particularly interested in China's rapid economic development. Even during his election campaign, he sent a message to China: "Build us a railway like you do in Africa and put our differences aside."

Clearly, a change in leadership leads to significant differences in a country's domestic and foreign policies. In some cases, its impact even reaches regional and international levels.

Hai Trieu

(According to Le Monde)