4 reasons why Duterte is unlikely to turn his back on the US.

Despite moves toward China, Philippine President Duterte is unlikely to change the close ties between his country and the United States.

President Duterte's visit to China resulted in contracts worth $17 billion. Photo: AFP.

International commentators were surprised by the rapid policy shift of Philippine President Duterte, as he declared he would distance himself from his ally the United States and lean towards China, according to the South China Morning Post. This has warmed relations between Manila and Beijing, which had been frozen since the international arbitration court ruling in July.

China seeks to draw the Philippines closer to bolster its regional influence and counterbalance the US in the Asia-Pacific. Manila's support would also help Beijing improve relations with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), where at least four countries have territorial disputes with China. The Philippines' chairmanship next year is expected to resolve many of the issues involved.

Severing the strategic relationship between the US and the Philippines would seriously impact US power in Asia. It would help China curb President Barack Obama's pivot to Asia strategy.

However, observers are skeptical of the Philippines' shift in stance. Manila's actions may simply be an attempt to balance the influence of the US and China, as well as secure financial aid from Beijing. During President Duterte's recent visit to China, the Philippines signed a series of economic agreements totaling $17 billion.

Philippine politicians have pointed out reasons why the country cannot turn its back on the United States.

The US-Philippines relationship has lasted nearly 70 years, since the two countries signed a mutual defense treaty. This allows the US military to use five military bases in the Philippines. President Duterte cannot single-handedly destroy this close alliance.

Despite the rapidly increasing investment from Beijing, trade with the United States remains crucial to the Philippine economy. The U.S. is Manila's third-largest trading partner, after China and Japan. Approximately 4 million Filipinos in the U.S. send nearly $6 billion back home last year alone.

Filipinos are known for being pro-American. Most politicians tend to lean toward Washington. Recent surveys show that 76% of Filipinos trust the US, compared to only 22% for China. Destroying US-Philippine relations would only alienate the people and military of the Philippines from President Duterte.

Ultimately, Filipinos are very patriotic. Even if Duterte leans toward Beijing, the Philippines is unlikely to abandon its sovereignty disputes with China.

"The impact of the Hague arbitration ruling on July 12 will be felt for years to come. And the ruling, declared final and binding by the court, will nonetheless be an obstacle to Philippines-China relations," commented Cary Huang of the South China Morning Post.

According to VNE