Will President Trump easily win re-election in 2020?

US President Donald Trump. Photo: Reuters

Americans who dislike President Donald Trump celebrated when Republicans lost control of the House to Democrats in the recent midterm elections. But while those who don't support Trump are cheering, they may also be advised to temper their excitement at the fact that his days in the White House are far from over. The free media may be excited about "the beginning of the end of the Trump era," but this is a delusional thought.

Although President Trump's name wasn't on the ballot in this year's midterm elections, it was clearly a referendum on his leadership. And he wasn't far off when he declared that he was "close to an absolute victory"—President Trump was the biggest winner in terms of the 2020 re-election campaign.

That campaign was completely effective. Mr. Trump has advanced and is almost certain to secure a second term in the most powerful office on the planet.

The "blue wave" that the Democratic Party hoped would bring about major changes ultimately turned out to be just weak ripples, as the party only managed to gain control of the House of Representatives, a victory seen as modest. This did not bode well for them in 2020.

Meanwhile, the Republican Party has demonstrated strength in the Senate, expanding and consolidating its "red wall" to push back against the opposition.

The support of voters – who were dissatisfied with President Trump's agenda and his allegedly racist statements and speeches – was not enough to overcome the solid backing he garnered from many American voters who supported his nationalist and populist ideology and were drawn to his popularity and unconventional personality.

You can say anything you want about Mr. Trump, but there's no denying that he's a politician who defies conventional rules, with a unique ability to beat bad things into the roses.

Trump was a phenomenon in the midterm election campaign. He seemed to have turned it into a campaign for himself, rather than for the Republican candidates he supported, and he didn't exaggerate much when he claimed he could reverse their fortunes.

Those celebrating election “defeat” should remember that Bill Clinton’s Democratic Party was overwhelmed by a “red tsunami” in the 1994 midterm elections, losing both the House and Senate to the Republicans. Clinton’s approval rating was not higher than Trump’s (45%), yet Clinton was still re-elected.

Former President Barack Obama suffered an even heavier defeat in the House of Representatives in the 2010 midterm elections, although his Republican party retained control of the Senate. Again, with similar approval ratings, Obama won a second term.

And Trump will win in the same way in 2020.

Regarding the prospect of congressional oversight, investigations and subpoenas are what the Democrats would do to Trump once they control the House of Representatives.

"They can play that game, but we can play it better, because we have the Senate," Trump said. "They can scrutinize us, we can scrutinize them, and it goes back and forth. And that could be very advantageous for me politically because I think I play it better than them."

Perhaps everyone should believe that too.

An Binh