Impeaching President Trump - History Will Not Repeat Itself

“The political game”

Since taking control of the House of Representatives in the 2018 midterm elections, Democrats have been looking for ways to impeach President Donald Trump. After failing to investigate President Donald Trump’s ties to Russia during the 2016 election, Democrats have found another “card”: Ukraine.

The efforts of the Democrats after many hearings, witness interviews, and heated debates among congressmen have brought the impeachment investigation of the President to an important turning point: the President was officially impeached by the House of Representatives on two charges: abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. The charge of abuse of power was assigned to Mr. Trump's "holding" of military aid to Ukraine to pressure Ukraine to investigate his political rival Joe Biden, and the charge of obstruction of Congress was assigned to his blocking of witnesses from testifying and refusing to comply with subpoenas.

Donald Trump was impeached on charges of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. Photo: Financial Times

Even before the US House of Representatives held additional debate and voted to approve the two articles of impeachment submitted by the Judiciary Committee, many people affirmed that Donald Trump's impeachment was irreversible when the Democratic Party held 325 seats out of the 435 seats in the House of Representatives.

According to the US Constitution, after the vote in the House of Representatives, President Trump will face a trial in the Senate to determine whether he should be convicted and removed from office. This trial is expected to begin on January 7 after the US Congress's Christmas and New Year's recess. After a trial with a tight schedule, in which the proceedings last from 6 days to 6 weeks, the Senate will vote to pass a resolution to convict and remove President Trump from office.

A group of protesters in front of the US Capitol in support of Mr. Trump's impeachment. Photo: Getty Images

The Democrats have tried very hard to call many witnesses to provide testimony that is unfavorable to Donald Trump. But in a country strongly influenced by partisanship and political tendencies, victory or defeat will not depend on whether the impeachment evidence is convincing or not, but on the ability to gather votes of the forces. If the Democrats want to "depose" the President, they must find a way to get 67 votes in the Senate - an almost "impossible" thing when the Republicans currently hold 53 seats out of 100 seats.

Therefore, President Donald Trump has nothing to worry about as the Senate is still under Republican control. The fact that Donald Trump sent a letter to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi right before the vote in the House of Representatives, containing harsh words criticizing the Democratic Party's impeachment investigation, calling it a "partisan crusade" aimed at "overthrowing democratic America" ​​is only seen as a move to add more excitement to the "political game" that the Democratic Party has initiated.

Mr. Donald Trump did not waver under pressure from the Democratic Party led by Ms. Nancy Pelosi. Photo: Getty

Trump's "Firewall"

Before President Donald Trump, there were two other US Presidents who were impeached: Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton. However, the American public did not compare President Donald Trump with Andrew Johnson or Bill Clinton, but they compared him with former President Richard Nixon because the alleged crimes were too similar between these two Presidents.

Like Donald Trump, former President Richard Nixon was also accused of illegally seeking political advantage over his Democratic opponent, and the break-in at the headquarters of the Democratic National Committee at Watergate became the biggest scandal in American political history. Not only were the charges similar, but both Presidents were “in trouble with the law” in their first terms, at a crucial time when they were preparing for their second term elections, and both faced investigations and impeachment initiated by the Democratic Party.

What Richard Nixon could not have, but Donald Trump has, is the “firewall” set up by Republican congressmen.

But besides many similarities, just one difference in the case of President Donald Trump compared to former President Richard Nixon was enough to change history: Richard Nixon was forced to resign, while Donald Trump was not! What Richard Nixon could not have, but Donald Trump had, was the "firewall" set up by Republican congressmen. When the Watergate scandal shook American politics, many Republican congressmen "turned their backs" on their President, and Richard Nixon had to decide to resign to avoid being impeached after a vote in the Senate.

Republican lawmakers strongly oppose the move to impeach Mr. Trump. Photo AFP

But at present, not a single Republican senator has expressed his intention to support a vote to convict Donald Trump. While the Democratic Party has to “bitterly” watch some members “defect” to the opposing side after heated debates in the House of Representatives, the Republican Party is absolutely united. They openly support Donald Trump, openly call the Democrats’ impeachment investigation “nonsense”, and Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell even asserts “as certain as a nail” that President Donald Trump “will never be removed from office”!

Voters' trust inPresident Donald Trumpbuilt on a solid foundation of strong economic growth and a US unemployment rate that is currently at 3.5% - a record low in the past half century.

Perhaps, the Democratic Party does not want to impeach Mr. Donald Trump, but aims for a further goal of "stirring up" the level of trust that voters have for the White House owner before the important election next year. However, according to analysts, this tactic of the Democratic Party is unlikely to bring results when the support rate for Mr. Trump at this time is still high, in which 92% of Republicans support his actions. The trust of voters is built on a solid foundation of quite high economic growth and the US unemployment rate is currently at 3.5% - a record low in the past half century.

Although Donald Trump may have a working style and statements that are not like traditional models, many people have to admit that his actions clearly demonstrate the spirit of “America First” that he once put forward during his election campaign. Therefore, if the US economy continues to maintain its current growth momentum, low unemployment rate and stable US stock market, not only will President Donald Trump not have the same fate as Richard Nixon, but he will also have a great chance of winning a second term.

Donald Trump will not repeat the fate of former President Richard Nixon. Photo: The Vox

Thuy Ngoc