Impeaching President Trump - History Will Not Repeat Itself

“The political game”

Since taking control of the House of Representatives after the 2018 midterm elections, Democrats have been looking for ways to impeach President Donald Trump. Having failed to investigate President Donald Trump’s ties to Russia during the 2016 election, Democrats have found another “card”: Ukraine.

The efforts of the Democrats after many hearings, witness interviews, and heated debates among congressmen have brought the impeachment investigation of the President to an important turning point: the President was officially impeached by the House of Representatives on two charges of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. The crime of abuse of power was assigned to Mr. Trump's "holding" of military aid to Ukraine to pressure Ukraine to investigate his political rival Joe Biden, and the crime of obstruction of Congress was assigned to his preventing witnesses from testifying and refusing to comply with subpoenas.

Mr. Donald Trump was impeached on charges of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. Photo: Financial Times

Even before the US House of Representatives held a supplementary debate and voted to approve the two articles of impeachment that the Judiciary Committee had submitted, many people had affirmed that Donald Trump's impeachment was irreversible when the Democratic Party held 325 seats out of the 435 seats of the House of Representatives.

According to the US Constitution, after the vote in the House of Representatives, President Trump will face a trial in the Senate to determine whether he should be convicted and removed from office. This trial is expected to begin on January 7 after the US Congress's Christmas and New Year's break. After a trial with a busy schedule, in which proceedings last from 6 days to 6 weeks, the Senate will vote to pass a resolution to convict and remove President Trump from office.

A group of protesters in front of the US Capitol in support of impeaching Mr. Trump. Photo: Getty Images

The Democrats have tried very hard to summon many witnesses to provide testimony that is unfavorable to Donald Trump. But in a country strongly dominated by partisanship and political tendencies, victory or defeat will not depend on whether the impeachment evidence is convincing or not, but on the ability to gather votes of the forces. If the Democrats want to "oust" the President, they must find a way to get 67 votes in the Senate - an almost "impossible" thing when the Republicans currently hold 53 seats out of 100 seats.

Therefore, President Donald Trump has nothing to worry about as the Senate is still under Republican control. The fact that Donald Trump sent a letter to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi right before the vote in the House of Representatives, which contained harsh words criticizing the Democratic Party's impeachment investigation, calling it a "partisan crusade" aimed at "overthrowing democratic America", was only seen as a move to add more tension to the "political game" that the Democratic Party had initiated.

Mr. Donald Trump did not waver under pressure from the Democratic Party led by Ms. Nancy Pelosi. Photo: Getty

Trump's "firewall"

Before President Donald Trump, there were two other US Presidents who were impeached: Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton. However, the American public did not compare President Donald Trump with Andrew Johnson or Bill Clinton, but they compared him with former President Richard Nixon because the alleged crimes were too similar between these two Presidents.

Like Donald Trump, former President Richard Nixon was also accused of illegally seeking political advantage over his Democratic opponent, and the break-in at the headquarters of the Democratic National Committee at Watergate became the biggest scandal in American political history. Not only were the charges similar, but both presidents were "in trouble with the law" in their first terms, at a crucial time when they were preparing for their second term elections, and both faced investigations and impeachment initiated by the Democratic Party.

What Richard Nixon could not have, but Donald Trump has, is a “firewall” set up by Republican congressmen.

But besides many similarities, just one difference in the case of President Donald Trump compared to former President Richard Nixon was enough to change history: Mr. Richard Nixon was forced to resign, but Mr. Donald Trump was not! What Mr. Richard Nixon could not have, but Mr. Donald Trump had, was the "firewall" set up by Republican congressmen. When the Watergate scandal shook American politics, many Republican congressmen "turned their backs" on their President, and Mr. Richard Nixon had to decide to resign to avoid being impeached after a vote in the Senate.

Republican lawmakers strongly oppose the move to impeach Mr. Trump. Photo: AFP

But at present, not a single Republican congressman has expressed his intention to support a vote to convict Mr. Donald Trump. While the Democratic Party has to "bitterly" watch some members "defect" to the opposing side after heated debates in the House of Representatives, the Republican Party is absolutely united. They openly support Mr. Donald Trump, openly call the Democratic Party's impeachment investigation "nonsense", and Republican leader in the Senate Mitch McConnell also asserted "as sure as a nail" that President Donald Trump "will never be removed from office"!

Voters' trust inPresident Donald Trumpbuilt on a solid foundation of strong economic growth and a US unemployment rate that is currently at 3.5% - a record low in half a century.

Perhaps, the Democratic Party does not want to remove Donald Trump, but aims for a further goal of "stirring up" the level of trust of voters for the White House owner before the important election next year. But according to analysts, this tactic of the Democratic Party is also unlikely to bring results when the rate of support for Mr. Trump at this time is still at a high level, in which 92% of Republicans support his actions. Voters' trust is built on a solid foundation of quite high economic growth and the US unemployment rate is currently at 3.5% - a record low in the past half century.

Although Donald Trump may have a working style and statements that are not like traditional models, many people have to admit that his actions clearly demonstrate the spirit of “America First” that he once put forward during his election campaign. Therefore, if the US economy continues to maintain its current growth momentum, the unemployment rate is low and the US stock market is stable, not only will President Donald Trump not have the same fate as Richard Nixon, but he will also have a great chance of winning a second term.

Mr. Donald Trump will not repeat the fate of former President Richard Nixon. Photo: The Vox