What is the Baggio Effect and why is it so terrifying?
The "Baggio effect" refers to the psychological instability experienced by players when taking a penalty shootout, where a missed shot would result in their team's defeat. Marquinhos is the latest victim of this so-called "Baggio effect."
The "Baggio effect" refers to the psychological instability experienced by players when taking a penalty shootout, where a missed shot would result in their team's defeat. Marquinhos is the latest victim of this so-called "Baggio effect."
"If player A misses, it's all over for them." We often hear this familiar phrase from commentators during tense penalty shootouts. It's a situation where player A must score to keep their team's chances of survival alive. But history shows that most failures stem from immense pressure.
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| Even a top-class player runs a high risk of missing the penalty if they find themselves in a situation similar to that of the Italian legend. |
Roberto Baggio was the legendary number 10 of the Italian national team three decades ago. In the 1994 World Cup final, Baggio stepped up to take the fifth penalty for Italy when the score was 3-2 in favor of Brazil. If Baggio missed, Italy would lose. If he succeeded, there was still a chance of survival. And then the "Divine Ponytail" sent the ball over the crossbar. Brazil didn't need a fifth penalty to win the title in the United States.
Even a top-class player is at high risk of missing a penalty if faced with a situation similar to that of the Italian legend. According to statistics from Globo, the success rate of penalty shootouts at the World Cup up to 2018 was 70%. Notably, this rate dropped to 42% in shots that, if missed, would result in a loss (the "Baggio effect"). Conversely, the success rate increased to 95% in shots that, if successful, would result in a win.
Marquinhos couldn't escape the so-called "Baggio effect." The central defender took Brazil's fourth penalty kick when the score was 4-2 in favor of Croatia. Marquinhos wasn't allowed to miss. But the PSG player's powerful shot hit the post. The penalty shootout ended with Croatia winning.
“When players face immense pressure to succeed, their minds are clouded with anxiety, which damages their motor nerves. Therefore, under intense emotional stress, players tend to be unable to repeat the movements they have mastered in training,” explains Joao Ricardo Cozac, a sports psychologist, regarding the “Baggio effect.”
Penalty shootouts are a matter of luck, that's true, but not entirely. Besides the "Baggio effect," Marquinhos also faced the risk of the eighth penalty kick. Statistics from Gracenote show that the eighth penalty is the riskiest of the first ten shots for both teams. In the history of World Cup penalty shootouts (up to the Round of 16 of the 2022 World Cup), the failure rate of the eighth penalty kick is as high as 38%, the highest among the first ten shots. The safest is the first penalty kick with a failure rate of only 28%.
Tite didn't need to know that information. He only needed to know that Marquinhos was a leader, a player with an iron will for the Brazilian national team. Tite believed that Marquinhos deserved to be given the trust to take part in the penalty shootout against Croatia.
But Tite overlooked a crucial detail: Marquinhos never took a penalty kick, neither from a penalty nor from a shootout, in his entire professional career. Penalty shootouts aren't just about luck, Tite!