What is the Baggio effect and why is it so scary?

The “Baggio effect” is a psychological state of instability of a player when having to take a penalty kick, if the kick is missed, the team will lose. Marquinhos is the latest victim of the so-called “Baggio effect”.

“If player A misses, it’s all over for them.” We often hear this familiar phrase from commentators in nerve-wracking penalty shootouts. It’s a situation where player A must score to keep his team alive. But history has shown that most fail because of the pressure.

A player, no matter how high level, is at high risk of missing a shot if he falls into a similar situation as the Italian legend.

Roberto Baggio was the famous number 10 of the Italian national team three decades ago. In the 1994 World Cup final, Baggio stepped up to take the fifth penalty for Italy when the score was 3-2 in favor of Brazil. If Baggio missed, Italy would lose. If he succeeded, there was still a chance of survival. And then the "Divine Ponytail" sent the ball over the crossbar. Brazil did not need to take the fifth penalty to win the title in the United States.

A player, no matter how high-level, is at high risk of missing a shot if he falls into a similar situation as the Italian legend. According to statistics from Globo, the success rate of penalty kicks in the World Cup as of 2018 is 70%. Notably, this rate drops to 42% in shots that if missed means losing the match (the “Baggio effect”). In addition, the success rate increases to 95% in shots that if successful means winning the match.

Marquinhos did not survive the so-called “Baggio effect”. The centre-back took the fourth penalty kick for Brazil when the score was 4-2 in favor of Croatia. Marquinhos was not allowed to miss. But the PSG player’s powerful shot hit the post. The penalty shootout ended with a victory for the Croatians.

“When players are under intense pressure to perform, their minds are clouded by anxiety and this can damage their motor nerves. When they are under strong emotional stress, they tend to fail to repeat the movements they have mastered on the training pitch,” Joao Ricardo Cozac, a sports psychologist, explains the “Baggio effect”.

Penalty shootouts are a matter of luck, true but not entirely. In addition to the “Baggio effect”, Marquinhos also fell into the deadly 8th kick. Gracenote statistics show that the 8th kick is the riskiest of the first 10 kicks taken by the two teams. In the history of penalty shootouts at the World Cup (up to the 2022 World Cup Round of 16), the failure rate of the 8th kick is up to 38%, the highest of the first 10 kicks. The safest is the first kick with a failure rate of only 28%.

Tite has no need to know that information. He only needs to know that Marquinhos is a leader, a player with a strong spirit of the Brazilian national team. Tite believes that Marquinhos deserves to be trusted in the penalty shootout with the Croatians.

But Tite left out one important detail: Marquinhos has never taken a penalty, whether it was a penalty or a shootout, in his entire professional career. Penalties are not just luck, Tite!